The Philadelphia Phillies (54-41) and the San Diego Padres (52-43) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday at Petco Park in San Diego. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 3-2

The Phillies head into Sunday’s game looking to avoid a 3-game sweep. The Padres won 4-2 Friday and 5-4 on Saturday. San Diego cashed as an underdog in both games, while the Over and Under split.

In Saturday’s game, Phillies C J.T. Realmuto was 3-for-4 with a double and RBI in a losing effort, while Padres OF Jackson Merrill led the way by going 2-for-4 with a pair of homers with 3 RBIs.

San Diego has won 3 in a row, all as an underdog, and it is 4-1 in the past 5 outings, each at home. The Under has cashed in 2 of the past 3 games, while the total has gone low at a 14-8-1 clip in the past 23 games since June 18.

Phillies at Padres projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. RHP Nick Pivetta

Sanchez (7-2, 2.59 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 107 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 3-1 road loss vs. San Francisco Giants last Monday2025 road stats: 4-2, 2.29 ERA (59 IP, 15 ER), 2 HR, 17 BB, 59 K, 1.07 WHIP in 8 starts2025 vs. Padres (July 2): Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 5-1 home victoryCareer vs. Padres: 2-1, 2.37 ERA (19 IP, 5 ER), 2 HR, 2 BB, 15 K, 0.84 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 3 starts

Pivetta (9-2, 3.07 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 102 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 1-0 home win vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday2025 home stats: 6-0, 2.30 ERA (58 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 5 HR, 11 BB, 67 K, 0.87 WHIP in 10 starts2025 vs. Phillies (July 2): Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H (1 solo HR), 0 BB, 6 K in 6-4 road victory WednesdayCareer vs. Phillies: 1-1, 5.79 ERA (14 IP, 9 ER), 2 HR, 6 BB, 14 K, 1.64 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 3 starts

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Phillies at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:21 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Padres +110 (bet $100 to win $110)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Padres +1.5 (-160)Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Phillies at Padres picks and predictionsPrediction

Padres 3, Phillies 2

The PADRES (+110) are worth a look as short ‘dogs at home behind Pivetta. He has unbelievable splits at home, posting a 6-0 record, 2.30 ERA and 0.87 in 10 home starts.

The Phillies are trying to pull into first place in the NL East before the break, but losing the first 2 games of this series hasn’t helped and they remain a half-game behind the New York Mets.

If you’re a little on the conservative side, SAN DIEGO +1.5 (-160) isn’t priced out of line if you would like a little insurance.

The Padres have won 3 in a row, all as an underdog, and San Diego is 8-2 in the past 10 games as an underdog on the run line, with 6 victories outright.

UNDER 7.5 (-105) might be the best play on the board, even if it is a low number. Sanchez should be pitching with a chip on his shoulder after being an All-Star snub, while Pivetta has kept the scores down at home. Expect runs to be at a premium.

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