For the first time in franchise history, the Miami Marlins began the MLB Draft with four consecutive college picks: Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette, Clemson outfielder Cam Cannarella, Arizona State outfielder Brandon Compton and Florida State outfielder Max Williams. The convenience of taking prospects who were everyday starters for power conference schools is we have a preponderance of data and video available to forecast with a high degree of confidence what their player profiles will be in the professional ranks. Forecasting whether or not they will be successful in the pros remains a crapshoot, however.
I am in a good mood this morning, so I’d like to share 90th-percentile scenarios for the careers of the Day 1 picks. Taking into account their tools, size, handedness and position, I see similarities to the following big leaguers:
Arquette = Kris Bryant
Cannarella = Nyjer Morgan
Compton = Jason Kubel
Williams = Tyler NaquinÂ
Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 7-2. Jakob Marsee reached base safely four times, but none of his teammates could drive him in. Double-A Pensacola lost, 4-1. Kemp Alderman sat out the entire week, but Fish On First farm director Alex Carver reports that the unspecified issue “isn’t serious.” High-A Beloit won, 8-3. Big day offensively for Connor Caskenette (3-4, 2 RBI, 2 SB). Five more stolen bases for the Sky Carp, who continue to pace the entire minor leagues this season with 228 as a team.
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🔷 I’m very grateful for the massive live viewership that our annual draft countdown/reaction show received (embedded at the bottom page). Alex Carver hosted a Twitter Space here after that where we analyzed the Cannarella, Compton and Williams picks.
🔷 Connor Norby (left wrist inflammation) landed on the 10-day injured list. Per manager Clayton McCullough, he is scheduled to see a specialist in Arizona to determine next steps. Just from my experience, that suggests to me an absence far longer than the 10-day minimum regardless of what feedback Norby receives. Graham Pauley will serve as the club’s primary third baseman in the meantime against right-handed pitching with Javier Sanoja as his platoon partner.
🔷 On the other hand, Edward Cabrera (right posterior elbow discomfort) dodged a bullet. McCullough believes he will be ready to go on the other side of the All-Star break with no IL stint needed. Assuming Cabrera doesn’t start the very first game out of the break, the precious trade chip is lined up to make only two more starts prior to the July 31 deadline.
🔷 The Marlins matched their largest margin of victory of the season on Sunday, with Kyle Stowers (5-5, 3 HR, 6 RBI) driving in the majority of those runs himself. He broke the all-time franchise record for most total bases in a single game. Stowers bumped up his wRC+ to 151, which ranks 12th among all qualified MLB hitters this season. It’s on pace to be the sixth-highest mark for any qualified season in Marlins history.
🔷 If not for Stowers, Eury Pérez would have gotten more attention for shoving seven scoreless innings, a career-long outing for him. He leaned on his fastball 64% of the time—the O’s knew it was coming and it didn’t matter. The combined line over his last three starts: 18.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 21 K. Pérez looks every bit as special as he did during the first half of his rookie season, and that shouldn’t be taken for granted.
🔷 The Prediction Time leaderboard has been updated through the first 31 series. Become a SuperSub and we’ll keep track of your predictions all season long!
🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Boston Red Sox have won 10 games in a row, while the Milwaukee Brewers are riding a seven-game streak. The Detroit Tigers head into the break with an MLB-best 59-38 record despite just being swept at home by the Seattle Mariners.
🔷 Day 2 of the draft gets underway at 11:30 a.m. ET. The Marlins are on the clock next with the 108th overall pick. They will be selecting 17 total players throughout the day (one each in Rounds 4-20). I’ll be adding their bios and scouting reports to this page.
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