I’m fairly certain that a relief pitcher is already on the trade deadline shopping list for the Chicago Cubs. However, after a couple of worrisome performances from Brad Keller, should the North Siders place an even greater emphasis on trading for some help?
After a stellar first three months of the season that saw him post a 1.91 ERA and an almost equally good 2.45 FIP, Brad Keller has had a rough start to July. Since the first of this month, the veteran righty has a 14.54 ERA and a horrid 12.32 FIP. This is after allowing just one earned run from April 25 through July 4.
All seven of the runs he has given up in July came in two outings. Keller has been such an integral part of a bullpen that has really carried the Cubs through June, when the bats cooled off a bit. Is this going to be a cause for concern going forward?
The first thing I think when I see a reliever suddenly start giving up runs is that his velocity is down. The good news here is that it’s not. For the season, Keller averages 97.1 mph on his fastball, 96.6 mph on his sinker, 87.0 mph on his slider, and 92.4 mph on his changeup, according to FanGraphs. In his two subpar outings this month, he was almost right on those figures, give or take a couple of tenths of a mile per hour. Velocity is not the issue.
Is his pitch movement worsening? According to Stuff+, which evaluates the overall physical characteristics of a pitch, with 100 being average, that’s also not the case. Keller has a rating of 105 prior to July, and it’s been 100 since. A decline, sure, but not necessarily a drastic or terribly concerning one.
Let’s go back to the bad outing last week against the St. Louis Cardinals. Keller got Willson Contreras to lazily fly out to start the inning. Then, Alec Burleson cut into the Cubs’ lead with a home run to center field:
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High fastballs aren’t always a bad thing—if you have a fastball that rises a lot. The issue here is that Keller has one of those cutting fastballs that the Cubs have become so famous for, and he typically tries to keep it lower in the zone. In fact, per Baseball Savant, hitters are slugging .786 on Brad Keller fastballs in the upper third of the strike zone. Whoops!
After the home run, Thomas Saggese reached his bat out and singled to right field on a pitch that was going to bounce in the dirt, and that had an exit velocity of 64 mph. Then, Lars Nootbaar had a bunt single. After that, Nolan Gorman had a ground ball single. Then came the big blow:
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I don’t even think I need to tell you that that is not where Keller wanted to throw that pitch. Here’s Keller’s heat map for sliders to right-handed hitters this year:
Keller, like almost every other pitcher, goes down and away with his slider. His pitch to Yohel Pozo was… not down and away. He missed his spot. Badly. Fast-forward to this past weekend against Aaron Judge, and this might look familiar:
A fastball up! I have a huge issue with throwing a fastball to Aaron Judge while up 0-2 in the count in a five-run game, too, but that’s not the thing this article is tackling. If you look at where Carson Kelly sets up, it’s clear that they wanted this pitch way up and out of the strike zone, likely to set up the slider. Keller missed his spot. Again. And paid the price. Again.
So what does all of this mean? You are free to interpret that in your own way. Me personally? I feel a tad better about Keller’s struggles this month after this. He made bad pitches to Gorman, Pozo, and Aaron freakin’ Judge, and in between Gorman and Pozo, he had a whole lot of unfortunate luck.
Pitchers make mistakes. These weren’t the first ones Keller has made this season. They’re simply the first ones in a while that were punished for home runs. Actually, they are the first three home runs he has given up all season.
Relief pitchers are, unfortunately, volatile like that. Their sample sizes are so small, and suddenly, a couple of bad outings, and their ERA balloons. Keller probably won’t continue to be the sub-2.00 ERA pitcher he was for the first three months, though I do still expect him to be a solid contributor for the bullpen going forward. The velocity and stuff are still there. He simply had a couple of bad outings and made a few bad pitches. All easily correctable things—we hope.