Detroit Tigers trade targets to fix bullpen problem at All-Star break
On “Days of Roar” podcast, Evan Petzold evaluates relief pitching for Detroit Tigers at MLB All-Star break — and the big need to win the World Series.
The Detroit Tigers have the second-best odds (+650) to win the World Series, according to BetMGM.The Tigers are projected to win the AL Central with over 94.9% probability by multiple sources.
Las Vegas likes the Detroit Tigers‘ World Series chances.
According to BetMGM, the Tigers have the second-best World Series odds at +650. That’s a huge improvement from the team’s opening odds at +4000, which put them in the bottom-half of MLB teams before the season started.
Those are also the best odds among American League teams, with the Yankees sitting at No. 3 in MLB at +750. The only team with better odds than the Tigers are the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers (+220).
The Tigers have parlayed a surprise 2024 playoff run into MLB’s best record at the All-Star Break, sitting at 59-38 with an 11½ game lead over the second-place Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. That is by far the biggest difference between any first and second-place team in baseball, the next highest coming out of the National League West where the Dodgers have a 5½ game lead over the San Diego Padres.
Despite the big jump, the Tigers haven’t experienced the biggest positive jump in World Series odds, according to BetMGM. That title goes to the Toronto Blue Jays, who had opening odds at +6000 and now sit at +2000.
Vegas likes the Tigers, certainly a lot more than it did at the beginning of the season. But how do other MLB experts feel about the Tigers’ World Series chances?
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Baseball Reference gives the Tigers a 99.6% chance to make the playoffs, a 26.4% chance to make the World Series and a near 14% chance to win the whole thing. Though those are the AL’s best odds, they have remained basically even over the last month.
Like Vegas, Baseball Reference thinks there’s an NL team with better World Series odds than the Tigers. But unlike Vegas, Baseball Reference thinks that team is the Chicago Cubs, whose championship odds are at 16.1% according to the site’s models
FanGraphs’ slightly more conservative odds still give the Tigers a 99% chance to make the playoffs and greater than a 10% chance to win the World Series. Those are slightly better than the New York Yankees‘ 9.6% odds to win the World Series.
However, they pale in comparison to the Dodgers’ World Series odds, which FanGraphs lists at 21.6%. The Tigers have the second-best FanGraphs odds in another department: clinching a playoff bye, which FanGraphs lists at 78.7%.
The general trend with Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA standings is much the same: the Tigers have the best World Series odds in the AL, but there’s an NL team with better odds.
And in this case, BP lists two NL teams with better odds: the Dodgers (16.0%) and the Cubs (15.9%). It also lists the Tigers at having the second-best divisional odds, with a 94.9% chance to win the AL Central.
You can reach Christian at cromo@freepress.com