The Mets entered the All-Star break a half-game behind the Phillies for first in the National League East, and despite a June to forget, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this upcoming stretch run…and a few reasons to be just a little bit concerned.
Here are five questions facing the Mets heading into the second half:
1. What’s RISP got to do with it?
The Mets have one of the better offenses in baseball, and some of its most potent hitters at the top of the lineup, but they’re curiously bad with runners in scoring position. Their .230 batting average in those situations is fourth-worst in baseball, and it’s bitten them repeatedly, particularly in June, when they went 12-15 and fell out of first.
There are various schools of thought when it comes to situational hitting. President of baseball operations David Stearns says he pays less attention to batting average, since it can be capricious, and looks more at the quality of at-bats. That said, the Mets haven’t always looked all that good in that respect either — at their worst, Carlos Mendoza noted that his players were getting behind in counts early, missing pitches to hit, and then chasing.
Some of the biggest culprits may surprise you: Juan Soto, known for his elite plate discipline, is hitting .183 with RISP, while Francisco Lindor, who’s made his name coming up clutch, is hitting .224. By far, their most clutch hitter is Pete Alonso, who’s slashing .337/.462/.703 with RISP, with a team-high 10 homers and 55 RBIs.
The question now is whether their other big bats can follow Alonso’s lead in the second half.
2. Can the bullpen hold up?
Edwin Diaz has been dynamite, but the Mets’ bullpen, beset by injuries that included losing setup man A.J. Minter for the season, occasionally has been porous. They also carried a heavy load, asked to compensate for short starts and a slew of injuries to the rotation and beyond.
Â
The Mets’ bullpen ERA, which was the best in baseball early in the season, is 13th with a 3.83 ERA, and has logged 371 innings, which is seventh. Beyond Diaz, no one has been automatic. The high-leverage circle of trust that includes Reed Garrett, Ryne Stanek and Huascar Brazoban has been mercurial. Meanwhile, Dedniel Nunez had to undergo Tommy John surgery and a consultation this week will determine if Max Kranick will have to do the same.
That said, Brooks Raley, returning from Tommy John, didn’t allow a single run in his seven rehab appearances, and is slated to return post-break. There’s also the trade deadline coming up, though high-leverage arms, as always, come at a premium.
3. Who’s on third?
The Mets have used a revolving troupe of young players at third base, and though Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos and Brett Baty all have their upside, they all have their liabilities, too. The Mets must decide how and when to shuffle those three while allowing ample at-bats, particularly for a guy like Mauricio, who missed a full year of development and was rushed to the big leagues this year.
Again, they could also get a true third baseman at the deadline — someone like Diamondbacks slugger Eugenio Suarez could be on the block — but that, too, would come at a significant price. For what it’s worth, Vientos, who’s hitting only .223, was heating up heading into the break, going 7-for-19 in his last five games, with three RBIs — all of which came on a game-saving double in their 8-3 win over the Royals last Friday. Mauricio, a natural shortstop, has also looked better at the plate and made a relatively seamless transition defensively at the hot corner.
4. Can the rotation stay healthy, and what will it mean if it does?
Last week heralded the return of Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea from the injured list, as well as an improved outing from Frankie Montas, who missed most of the first half with a lat injury. Between those three, All-Star David Peterson and Clay Holmes, the Mets have the makings of what could be a solid rotation.
But there are caveats, of course: Senga has been highly injury prone for the last two seasons and Holmes, a converted reliever, has already surpassed a career high in innings. Senga and Manaea will be fresh for the second half, though, and Tylor Megill is slated for an August return if all goes well. Those are a lot of weapons for a team that spent most of June relying on Triple-A Syracuse to tide them over, with predictable results.
5. Can they balance this lineup?
Jeff McNeil is quietly putting together an excellent season, Alonso is raking, Soto was named June player of the month, Brandon Nimmo found his power stroke, and Lindor continues to be a menace.
But the five, six and seven spots often come up limp — a combined batting average of .210, among the very worst in baseball (the five hitter is ranked 25th in batting average, the sixth is 27th and the seventh 29th).
A Vientos resurgence would be a boon, as would Mauricio’s continued development. They could recall Francisco Alvarez, who’s been raking in Triple-A, but there’s no guarantee that will continue at the major-league level. Tyrone Taylor’s defense has been Gold Glove worthy, but offensively he’s been a liability. There isn’t an easy answer, but if the Mets expect to create and sustain rallies, they can’t have a black hole in the middle of their lineup.
Laura Albanese is a reporter, feature writer and columnist covering local professional sports teams; she began at Newsday in 2007 as an intern.