The Detroit Tigers went nine years without a postseason appearance before ending their drought last year by earning a wild-card berth in the American League. They haven’t captured the AL Central crown since 2014 and last won the World Series in 1984, when they defeated the San Diego Padres in five games for the fourth title in franchise history.
If the first half of the 2025 MLB season is any indication, Detroit has a strong chance to end both of those dry spells. The Tigers entered the All-Star break with the best record in the majors at 59-38 and are 11 1/2 games ahead of the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central, by far the largest lead among the league’s six divisions.
The other two division leaders in the AL aren’t far behind Detroit, however, as the Houston Astros are first in the AL West with a 56-40 record despite splitting their first 40 games and five of their last six before the break. Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays are two games ahead of the New York Yankees atop the AL East but have lost three of their last four contests following a 10-game winning streak.
As expected, the reigning world champions Los Angeles Dodgers own the best record in the National League as they are 58-39 and 5 1/2 games in front of the San Diego Padres in the West. However, the Central-leading Chicago Cubs are right behind the Dodgers at 57-39 and just one game ahead of the division-rival Milwaukee Brewers (56-40). The Philadelphia Phillies are 55-41 and only one-half game in front of the New York Mets (55-42) in the NL East as the second half of the season begins.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Tigers and Cubs basically are locks to advance to the postseason this year. In addition, the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees and Brewers are excellent bets to reach the 2025 playoffs.
The model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, has crunched the numbers for the 2025 MLB postseason. The model has projections on the top contending teams’ playoff probability, as well as their chances to win the World Series.Â
MLB playoff projections and odds
Team
Model’s % to make playoffs
DraftKings
FanDuel
Caesars
bet365
Chicago Cubs
99%
-2000
-3500
-2000
-2500
Detroit Tigers
99%
-20000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Los Angeles Dodgers
98%
-10000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Philadelphia Phillies
97%
-1000
-1600
-950
-1200
New York Yankees
96%
-1000
-1600
-1400
-1600
Milwaukee Brewers
95%
-330
-350
-330
-330
Seattle Mariners
89%
-215
-192
-190
-170
Houston Astros
85%
-1400
N/A
-4000
N/A
Toronto Blue Jays
76%
-400
-500
-525
-550
New York Mets
66%
-650
-550
-600
-650
Boston Red Sox
60%
-115
-140
-140
-130
Tampa Bay Rays
48%
+160
+140
+140
+135
San Diego Padres
46%
-145
N/A
-130
-150
San Francisco Giants
45%
-110
-105
-110
-105
Texas Rangers
24%
+310
+340
+325
+350
Cincinnati Reds
19%
+550
+630
+600
+500
Arizona Diamondbacks
16%
+650
+880
+900
+700
St. Louis Cardinals
12%
+225
+235
+260
+230
Minnesota Twins
11%
+280
+350
+325
+300
Cleveland Guardians
3%
+390
+350
+500
+450
Atlanta Braves
2%
+1200
+1300
+1150
+1200
Los Angeles Angels
2%
+1200
N/A
+1200
+1200
MLB World Series projections and odds
Team
Model’s % to win World Series
DraftKings
FanDuel
Caesars
bet365
Chicago Cubs
19%
+1200
+1300
+1000
+1200
New York Yankees
13%
+650
+850
+800
+900
Los Angeles Dodgers
12%
+255
+220
+260
+200
Detroit Tigers
11%
+700
+700
+650
+700
Milwaukee Brewers
9%
+2500
+2700
+2500
+2500
Philadelphia Phillies
9%
+850
+800
+925
+800
Seattle Mariners
9%
+2000
+2500
+2000
+2800
Houston Astros
3%
+950
+1000
+850
+1100
Tampa Bay Rays
3%
+5000
+3500
+4000
+3500
Boston Red Sox
1%
+3500
+2800
+3300
+2800
New York Mets
1%
+900
+1300
+1100
+1200
San Francisco Giants
1%
+2800
+3500
+2800
+3500
Toronto Blue Jays
1%
+2000
+2500
+1800
+1500
While -330 at several sportsbooks on the Brewers to make the playoffs is extreme value based on the model’s projection of 95%, a bettor still has to wager $330 to win $100 and lock up that money for several months to do so. According to the model, there is better value on teams such as the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers.
Now we’ll take a closer look at the model’s top three plays to win the 2025 World Series.
1. Chicago Cubs (+1300, FanDuel)World Series probability model projection: 19%
It was only nine seasons ago that the Cubs ended their 108-year championship drought, defeating the then-Cleveland Indians in seven games for the third World Series title in franchise history and first since 1908. But they have gone four straight campaigns without reaching the playoffs, finishing under the .500 mark twice in that span.
However, Chicago received some strong performances during the first half of 2025 and could be a major contender for another crown come October. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki are among the National League leaders in several offensive categories, as they share fourth place with 25 home runs apiece, while the latter is tied for second with 77 RBI and the former ranks fourth with 71.
On the mound, Matthew Boyd is having the best season of his 11-year tenure in the major leagues. The 34-year-old left-hander is second in the NL with a career-high 10 victories and also ranks second with a 2.34 ERA while sharing fourth place with three others with 13 quality starts.
The Cubs have dropped consecutive contests just once since enduring a three-game slide from June 22-24 and wrapped up the first half of the season by winning two of three against the Yankees in New York. If Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki continue to produce, and Michael Busch (19 homers, .925 OPS) keeps up his pace, Chicago likely will cruise into the playoffs and contend for the Commissioner’s Trophy.
2. New York Yankees (+900, bet365)World Series probability model projection: 13%
When 2023 AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole went down in spring training with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, many believed the Yankees’ chances of returning to the World Series in back-to-back seasons were finished. But newcomer Max Fried and Carlos Rodon have done their share and kept the team at or near the top of the AL East during the first half of the season.
Both left-handers were named to the All-Star team, as Fried leads the AL with 11 victories and Rodon is tied for second with 10. Fried also is near the top of the league in ERA (fourth, 2.43) and Rodon ranks fourth with 135 strikeouts.
Reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge has been his usual dominant self at the plate. The seven-time All-Star is first in the majors with 125 hits and a .355 batting average while ranking second with 35 home runs and 81 RBI.Â
As a team, New York is living up to its “Bronx Bombers” nickname as it has seven players in double figures and leads the majors with 151 homers. In addition, the club is atop the American League with 501 runs scored and a +111 run differential, which is 24 runs better than second-place Detroit.
If the Yankees continue to receive production from a supporting cast that includes Jazz Chisholm Jr. (17 HR), Cody Bellinger (16 HR, 54 RBI) and Trent Grisham (16 HR), and they overcome their recent bullpen struggles, it will be difficult for any other team in the AL to prevent them from returning to the Fall Classic.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (+260, Caesars)World Series probability model projection: 12%
No team has won back-to-back world championships since the Yankees captured three in a row from 1998-2000. But with all of the additions the Dodgers made after winning the eighth title in franchise history and second in five years, baseball experts were certain a repeat was coming this season.
Los Angeles lived up to the hype early in 2025, winning its first eight games. It put together a seven-game streak that bridged April and May, and won 15 of 18 contests from June 14-July 3, but proved human by losing seven straight just before the All-Star break.
Despite a plethora of injuries to their starting pitchers, the Dodgers still sit atop the NL West – thanks in large part to their offense. The club leads the majors in runs scored (518) and ranks first in homers (145). Will Smith and Freddie Freeman are first and second in the NL, respectively, with .323 and .297 batting averages while reigning NL MVP Shohei Ohtani is first with 32 home runs.
The Dodgers have slowly eased Ohtani into the starting rotation as well, with the 31-year-old Japanese superstar allowing just one earned run over nine innings in five starts after staying off the mound for the entire 2024 season due to elbow surgery. If Ohtani and the recently activated Tyler Glasnow continue to grow stronger, and Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki successfully return from shoulder injuries in the second half, it’s possible that Los Angeles can steamroll its way to another World Series title.