The betting  market is a lot like the stock market. Not only is it fraught with “warning label” level risk, but it’s in constant motion. Timing is everything, especially with the explosion in live wagering, meaning the ability to wager on a game at any time during that game, or a full season at various points within that season.

In Major League Baseball, the All Star break is a logical juncture to revise season win totals for all 30 teams, either upwards or downwards. The Houston Astros began the season with a win totals in Vegas of 86.5, and currently sit at 56-40, on pace for 94.5 wins, so naturally their win totals should be revised upwards.

Indeed, that is the case, as the Astros have had their season win total bumped up by six wins. So if you want to win money betting on the Astros going over their win totals, they’ll need at least 93 wins to go over their new 92.5 number. That means a record of at least 37-29 down the stretch. Can the Astros do it? I think they can, and here are four reasons why:

4. In the everyday lineup, they should be getting Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez back soon
Pena has been their best everyday player all season, and Alvarez, when healthy, is one of the five best hitters in baseball. Pena is dealing with a broken rib, and Alvarez has been dealing with a broken hand since May 2. Pena has already begun taking grounders and is expected back soon. Alvarez’s hand is being re-evaluated, but the last report was that he is currently pain free. Pena coming back in the leadoff spot, where his OPS this season is .941, and Alvarez coming back to bat cleanup are two massive additions, for the team that currently leads MLB in batting average.

3. In the pitching staff, they should be getting Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier back very soon
The Astros came into the season counting on Arrighetti to be their number three starter, after a stellar rookie season in 2024. Unfortunately, he broke his hand in a freak accident during the pregame against the Mariners in April. He is finally set to make rehab starts this coming week in the minors. Javier is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and is hitting 95 MPH on the radar gun in his rehab starts. At their ceilings, Arrighetti is an above average MLB starting pitcher, and Javier is elite, as displayed in the 2022 postseason.

2. Christian Walker and/or Yainer Diaz HAVE to be better down the stretch, right?
Among the everyday players on the Astros, the biggest disappointments have been Walker and Diaz. Walker signed a big deal in free agency to be the starting first baseman, and Diaz had shown himself to be one of the best young catchers in the game, particularly offensively, over the last two seasons. Both of them are languishing with OPS numbers below .700 all season long. It’s fair to assume that at least one will catch fire in the second half of the season. If I had to predict which one, I’d take Diaz, who’s had more competitive at bats of late. Walker is a strikeout machine, whiffing in 30 percent of his at bats.

1. Weakness of schedule
The Astros played one of the hardest schedules in the league in the first half of the season, and obviously thrived. No team had a better record against teams that are currently at or above .500 than the Astros, who went 27-18 in games against those teams. In the second half of the season, the schedule lightens up significantly. Of the 21 series the Astros will play after the All Star break, 13  are against teams that are currently below .500. That lines up nicely for the Astros.

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