Preseason projections are always a fun conversation piece in the depths of the offseason. Now that we find ourselves at the All-Star break, it can be a fun exercise to look back and see how some of the Yankee hitters have done thus far compared to those projections. We have some already-goliath expectations being surpassed, nice surprises, and of course, the inevitable disappointment.
I have partaken in this exercise for a few years now, and as always, there are some disclaimers to be put out there. Preseason projections are that and only that, and don’t need to be taken as fact; and we are also only at the All-Star break, so plenty could change in the months that follow this check-in. But we’re at the spiritual “halfway” mark of the season, so let’s see how things have played out to this point.
We’ll start at the top, with Aaron Judge once again breaking relatively new ground for how good a hitter can be. At this point, only a couple of Mount Rushmore-type players have done what he is doing, and 2025 is no different. ZiPS had him pegged as the best projected hitter in baseball by a not-insignificant margin, and for good reason. Not too many guys ever get penciled in for ~50 homers and a 179 wRC+, as Judge was, even fewer can blow it out of the water. He has already amassed 35 homers in his 96 games thus far, and his 219 wRC+ at this point is matching his mark from last season — which was one of the best offensive seasons in the history of baseball. There is not much to say that hasn’t already been said, he’s a special one.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been another one to surpass expectations, having a career year in his first full season with the Yankees. Preseason ZiPS projections had him sitting around a 115 wRC+, and putting up 3.9 fWAR in a relatively full season. While he has missed some time, he has accumulated nearly 70 percent of that value in just 65 games, while posting a would-be career best 140 wRC+. It’s been fueled in part by a walk rate that’s over three percentage points higher than he’s ever maintained, while slugging over .500 and swatting 17 homers already in his less than half-season of games. Rest-of-season projections stand firm with those from March, but Jazz now has an All-Star level base from which to build.
Newcomers Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt have had eventful 2025 seasons so far, each somewhat telling of where they may be headed. Bellinger has outplayed what ZiPS had him pegged for before the season, and is right about on par with his major rebound season with the Cubs in 2022. Goldy, however, is moving in the wrong direction of late. His 116 wRC+ and .287/.345/.431 slash line is generally in line with his projections, though his eight homers to this point leave something to be desired, and he’s not being buoyed by the extreme contact he was making earlier in the season. ZiPS sees more of the same for 37-year-old first baseman for the rest of the season.
Austin Wells has also been in line with his overall expected production in 2025. It has, however, come with a big boost in power, with his 14 homers and .455 slugging already surpassing that of his solid rookie season. Speaking of power jumps, in 79 games Trent Grisham is one homer shy of setting a career high, and although he has cooled from his Bondsian start to the season, his 131 wRC+ and .353 OBP far surpass what was expected of him before the start of play this year. He did as well as possible “replacing” Juan Soto early in the season, and he projects to remain an above-average bat the rest of the way, with a stellar start already under his belt.
With all due credit to ZiPS, the projections have been almost spot on for Jasson Domínguez. The youngster has been quietly productive with a .266/.343/.417 slash line in 2025, and though it hasn’t been eye-popping, it sets a nice baseline for his first crack at a full-time job. For his age-22 season, that’s not shabby.
Elsewhere in the graduated prospect realm, concern is warranted for Anthony Volpe. ZiPS had him projected for an improvement as a league-average bat nearing four wins as a shortstop. Instead, he’s reverted right back to the level of production he’s maintained in his first two big league seasons. This is despite the early season power surge, and it would be fair at this point to consider if this is who he is with the bat. There can always be improvement, and rest-of-season projections do see some for the 24-year old, but the realistic ceiling for Volpe feels rather questionable at this juncture.
This Yankees offense has been the best in baseball as a full unit, thanks to an all-time great leading the charge, and a few pleasant surprises and steady bats behind him. There is plenty of baseball left to be played in 2025, and much change sure to come to how we look back on all of these individual performances.