A 10-game winning streak has Red Sox fans energized about the second half of the season. Herald beat writers Mac Cerullo and Gabrielle Starr break down the team’s chances to secure a playoff spot.
Starr: The 53-45 Red Sox return from the All-Star break today having finished the first half in peak form: a 10-game winning streak, their longest since 2018, and back-to-back-to-back sweeps of the Nationals, Rockies, and Rays (four games). In the final week before the break, they won multiple one-run games, something they struggled to do for most of the spring, and Brayan Bello and Garrett Crochet pitched the first complete games of their respective careers. Really, it’s just been a blast, which frankly, you can’t say about the majority of the last several Red Sox seasons.
But now, the Red Sox are about to be tested in a big way. And historically, the post-All-Star break malaise has been killer. They held a Wild Card going into the break last year, too, and then it all fell apart when they returned. They haven’t completed a winning season since 2021, the last time they snuck into the playoffs in the final year of the two-team Wild Card format.
Cerullo: It’s striking how similar a spot the Red Sox are in compared to last year. This time last season the club was 53-43 and a season-best 10 games over .500. They had just finished a huge series win over a top playoff contender (the Royals) and held one of the three AL Wild Card spots, just as they do now. But things pretty much went straight down the tubes as soon as the break ended, with the club getting swept out of the gate by the Dodgers before injuries started piling up in the bullpen.
Tough road ahead
Cerullo: The schedule isn’t going to do the Red Sox any favors this year, either. Coming out of the break, the club is set to face the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies on the road, followed by the Dodgers at Fenway Park. All three teams are first in their respective National League divisions, so we’re going to find out right away if this recent Red Sox run is the real deal.
Starr: That west coast trip right after the break last year was a real punch in the gut, especially the way those games in Los Angeles went. And then they went to Colorado and lost two of three to the Rockies, who were on their way to a 61-101 finish. You’re right, this is arguably a far tougher gauntlet; according to Tankathon, only the Rockies and Reds have higher Strength of Schedule numbers than Boston, whose remaining opponents have a combined .516 winning percentage. Two of their remaining six road trips take them all the way out to California, too, and they’re both within the span of a month.
But I think this is also a tougher Red Sox team in that they’ve shown a lot of fight lately, and they’re deeper than last year.
Cerullo: That’s the key. By this point last season the Red Sox were already going on more than a bullpen game a week, and once Justin Slaten and Chris Martin got hurt the whole house of cards fell apart. This year they’ve only used a true opener once, and Craig Breslow has already made a couple of under the radar bullpen additions that have proven helpful.
Starr: That being said, how far this team can go will still depend on what else the front office does before the trade deadline.
Minnesota Twins pitcher Joe Ryan has been speculated as a potential Red Sox trade target ahead of the upcoming trade deadline. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
How aggressive will Sox be at deadline?
Cerullo: I think we can both agree the Red Sox will be buyers. Breslow has been pretty adamant about that dating back to the Rafael Devers trade, and now that they’ve won 10 straight it would be crazy to stand pat or sell. So what do you think should be at the top of Breslow’s wish list?
Starr: Starting pitching has been the common thread in each of Boston’s four championships this century. You can never have too much rotation depth, and with Hunter Dobbins done for the year and Tanner Houck being a question mark, it seems like an obvious need. A big bat certainly wouldn’t hurt, especially since the Red Sox no longer have Devers for their two series left against the Yankees. (I bet Gerrit Cole loved that trade.)
Cerullo: One thing I’ve really appreciated is we haven’t heard any talk of Houck coming back as some kind of trade deadline boost, or really anything at all about Patrick Sandoval.
Starr: Remember in 2023, when the Red Sox tried to frame Trevor Story and Chris Sale coming off the injured list as the same thing as adding at the deadline? They really tried to sell that, and no one bought it.
Cerullo: Sale’s annual second half return almost became a running gag by the end.
Starr: Remember in August 2018, when Alex Cora basically said Sale didn’t need a rehab assignment because the Red Sox were playing the Orioles (who ended up finishing the season 47-115)? Sale struck out 12 with one hit and no walks over five shutout innings, then didn’t pitch again until Sept. 11. The Red Sox may be deeper than they were last year, but they definitely don’t have the bandwidth to let any of their starters get that much rest.
Cerullo: No, so if the Red Sox only do one thing at the deadline, bringing in a credible No. 2 starter to slot in behind Garrett Crochet is key. We’ve heard plenty of talk about Minnesota’s Joe Ryan, and he’d be a perfect candidate, but there are plenty of other options as well. Washington’s MacKenzie Gore would be a home run, and a rental like Arizona’s Zac Gallen would be worthwhile, too. As far as bats, Josh Naylor and Rhys Hoskins would both provide some badly needed power in the heart of the lineup. Both would be rentals, though Hoskins is hurt so that would make him a bit more like Kyle Schwarber in ‘21 where the potential payoff comes later.
Starr: One thing no amount of analytics can guarantee, unfortunately, is how well a player will do post-trade. Schwarber turned out to be phenomenal, and every time I see him hit another bomb for the Phillies I wonder what the last several Red Sox seasons would have looked like with his bat in the lineup.
I’d describe Breslow’s attempt to bolster the bullpen last summer as more than half-hearted, but definitely below ‘full throttle.’ The Red Sox parted with some top prospects to get Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia, who had been very solid for their previous teams. Not only did they both fall apart here, they actually went on the IL within about two hours of each other on the same day.
Cerullo: Breslow definitely has to aim higher this year. They have plenty of depth, now they need some dudes.
Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet is on pace to blow past his career-high in innings pitched. Can he avoid running out of steam down the stretch? (Matt Stone/Boston Herald)
Biggest questions
Cerullo: So I feel like this year’s team is much better equipped to make a strong playoff push down the stretch than the past few seasons, but baseball is a tough sport and something could always go wrong. If there’s one thing the Red Sox should worry about with this group, what do you think that would be?
Starr: This roster has so many rookies, so I like the idea of adding players with postseason experience. They did that during the offseason by signing Alex Bregman and Walker Buehler, though the latter is another big question mark for the second half. Winning in Boston is also definitely its own unique thing, and the only player who’d actually done that is now playing in San Francisco.
Cerullo: I think Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Carlos Narvaez have all done a great job as rookies, but you’re right, the season is a grind and we have no idea how they’ll hold up as the calendar turns to August and September. My biggest concern is related but deals with someone else. Crochet has been outstanding, but he’s already nearly surpassed his career-high in innings pitched, having thrown 129.1 after throwing 146 last year, 12.2 the year before and none in 2022. If there’s anyone who is built to carry an ace’s workload, it’s Crochet, but he’s entering uncharted territory and the Red Sox absolutely cannot afford for him to run out of steam.
Starr: I vividly remember us discussing Crochet’s usage before last year’s deadline, when the White Sox were listening to offers and the Red Sox were linked to him. Since Crochet got to Boston during the offseason he’s spoken a lot about not wanting to be on a leash (his words) in the second half, but we’ve already seen the occasional ‘load management’ game plan for him, such as his May 21 start when Cora pulled him after 5.1 innings and 85 pitches.
However, as we noted earlier, an athlete’s health can turn on a dime. So really, one of the only ways to protect Crochet is to bolster the rotation around him.
Cerullo: And even if Crochet keeps it up, there’s no guarantee that Brayan Bello or Lucas Giolito will keep pitching at the level they have recently.
Starr: There never are any guarantees, really. If there were, baseball would be pretty dull.
Cerullo: Ain’t that the truth.
Jarren Duran (16) of the Boston Red Sox puts the Wally head on Roman Anthony after Anthony’s two-run homer during the fifth inning of a MLB game against the Colorado Rockies at Fenway Park. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald)