The Mariners enter the second half of the season with a bigger presence in the national consciousness thanks to Cal Raleigh’s home run derby win, a fantastic draft haul, and the prominence of all four of Seattle’s All-Stars during Tuesday’s exhibition game. Along with their series sweep of the Tigers a week ago, they’ve got a bit of momentum behind them. The M’s will exit the midseason break facing a huge series against the Astros, the third time in four years the first series after the All-Star game has been against Houston (and the one time it wasn’t, the Astros and Mariners faced off right before the All-Star break). Seattle’s record in those games against the ‘Stros coming out of the break? 1-5. Let’s hope they can buck the trend this weekend.
At a Glance
Astros
Mariners
Astros
Mariners
Game 1
Friday, July 18 | 7:10 pm
LHP Brandon Walter
RHP Luis Castillo
47%
53%
Game 2
Saturday, July 19 | 6:40 pm
RHP Lance McCullers Jr.
RHP Logan Evans
50%
50%
Game 3
Sunday, July 20 | 1:10 pm
LHP Framber Valdez
RHP Logan Gilbert
47%
53%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
Team Overview
Overview
Astros
Mariners
Edge
Overview
Astros
Mariners
Edge
Batting (wRC+)
106 (5th in AL)
115 (2nd in AL)
Mariners
Fielding (OAA)
21 (1st)
-13 (11th)
Astros
Starting Pitching (FIP-)
94 (5th)
103 (8th)
Astros
Bullpen (FIP-)
83 (2nd)
107 (13th)
Astros
From June 1–July 6, the Astros went 24-8 and raced to the top of the AL West standings, culminating with a pretty comprehensive sweep of the Dodgers a few weeks ago. They stumbled into the All-Star break, however, going 1-5 against the Guardians and Rangers last week. That allowed the Mariners to make up a little bit of ground on Houston, putting the division back in play this summer. The most impressive thing about the Astros hot streak in June was that they did it despite facing a ton of injury woes; they’ve placed eight players on the IL since the beginning of June, joining Yordan Alvarez who has been out since the beginning of May with a hand injury. This is probably the weakest the ‘Stros have been in a particularly weak season from them.
Astros Lineup
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Isaac Paredes
3B
R
403
16.6%
11.9%
0.211
133
Cam Smith
RF
R
323
27.6%
8.4%
0.140
117
Jose Altuve
LF
R
396
15.7%
8.3%
0.188
121
Christian Walker
1B
R
377
27.3%
6.1%
0.145
85
Victor Caratini
DH
S
237
17.3%
4.6%
0.181
105
Yainer Diaz
C
R
339
18.0%
4.1%
0.162
89
Taylor Trammell
CF
L
36
36.1%
11.1%
0.156
59
Mauricio Dubón
SS
R
214
8.9%
5.1%
0.160
96
Brice Matthews (AAA)
2B
R
325
30.2%
15.4%
0.193
131
Jeremy Peña is probably the biggest name who was injured during that June spree — he fractured a rib on June 27 and could be close to returning, though it’s unlikely he’ll be activated in time for this series. Four other role playing outfielders were hurt as well, which is how former Mariner Taylor Trammell was thrust into starting in center field for Houston. All those injuries have put a lot of pressure on Jose Altuve to anchor the lineup and he’s responded with a .391/.444/.783 (229 wRC+) slash line in July.
Probable Pitchers
Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Brandon Walter
40.2
24.2%
1.2%
20.5%
47.9%
3.98
4.04
Luis Castillo
108.1
20.6%
7.5%
9.2%
41.1%
3.41
3.83
LHP Brandon Walter
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
17.0%
91.9
88
155
100
0.150
Sinker
13.7%
91.5
105
Cutter
29.4%
88.2
90
73
87
0.336
Changeup
18.2%
80.9
96
125
94
0.197
Sweeper
21.8%
79.6
110
76
152
0.336
At one point, Brandon Walter could have been considered a top 100 prospect in the Red Sox organization, but he missed out on so much of his development time due to a variety of injuries. He actually made his major league debut in 2023 but was released the next year after suffering a pretty significant shoulder injury that kept him off the mound for the entire season. He latched on with the Astros on a minor league deal and made his debut with Houston in late May. He’s got impeccable command of a five-pitch repertoire and his low arm slot gives batters a unique look from the left side. His arm slot also means his pitches have plenty of horizontal movement, though his changeup and sinker both have some decent depth to them. Because he’s pitching in and around the zone so often, he can be hit hard at times, and he has a pretty significant platoon split despite the presence of his above average changeup.
Game 2 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Lance McCullers Jr.
41.2
24.5%
13.0%
20.0%
43.7%
6.48
5.77
Logan Evans
50.1
16.4%
7.0%
14.8%
39.8%
3.75
5.03
RHP Lance McCullers Jr.
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
5.7%
91.9
84
Sinker
21.8%
91.5
83
117
65
0.394
Cutter
5.2%
89.1
93
Changeup
19.5%
86.8
78
66
127
0.293
Curveball
14.3%
82.5
120
120
52
0.351
Slider
33.5%
82.8
123
80
105
0.325
From a previous series preview:
Lance McCullers Jr. made his long awaited return from multiple arm injuries a few months ago. It was his first big league start since Game 3 of the 2022 World Series, enduring almost 1,000 days of recovery and rehab. At his peak, McCullers was a frontline ace who was able to spin his curveball with the best of them. It’s a testament to his perseverance that he’s even pitching in the big leagues again, and he’s somehow only 31 years old, but I’m not sure he’ll ever be able to get back to that level again. His command hasn’t returned yet and his velocity is sitting well below where it was three years ago.
In his previous outing against the Mariners, McCullers allowed two runs in 4.1 innings, allowing eight baserunners while striking out eight.
Game 3 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Framber Valdez
121
25.5%
8.4%
11.4%
60.1%
2.75
3.02
Logan Gilbert
61
35.3%
6.0%
16.7%
41.3%
3.39
2.95
LHP Framber Valdez
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
1.9%
93.5
Sinker
44.0%
94.3
93
76
92
0.365
Changeup
18.2%
89.8
102
97
108
0.266
Curveball
33.7%
79.6
129
139
103
0.251
Slider
2.3%
84.3
From a previous series preview:
Framber Valdez turned in another fantastic season last year, earning a seventh place finish in the Cy Young voting, his third straight season with down ballot votes. It’s actually quite impressive how consistent he’s been during this stretch; his excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio has barely budged, his groundball rate is continually excellent, and he hasn’t run into any bad batted ball luck or home run issues. It all starts with his curveball. That breaking ball is one of the best in baseball and continues to give opposing batters fits. Valdez has dabbled with a few versions of his repertoire that included a cutter or four-seamer over the years, but he’s settled on the core trio of pitches that have worked so well for him throughout his career. That kind of consistency makes Valdez a bit underrated, but make no mistake, he’s still one of the best pitchers in the American League.
Valdez has allowed just a single run across his two previous starts against the M’s. His last outing was a six-inning affair in which he allowed eight baserunners and struck out five.
The Big Picture:
AL West Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Astros
56-40
0.583
—
L-L-L-W-L
Mariners
51-45
0.531
5.0
L-L-W-W-W
Rangers
48-49
0.495
8.5
L-W-W-L-W
Angels
47-49
0.490
9.0
W-L-W-W-L
Athletics
41-57
0.418
16.0
L-W-L-W-W
AL Wild Card Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Yankees
53-43
0.552
+2.0
W-W-W-L-L
Red Sox
53-45
0.541
+1.0
W-W-W-W-W
Mariners
51-45
0.531
—
L-L-W-W-W
Rays
50-47
0.515
1.5
W-L-L-L-L
The Mariners enter the second half of the season holding the third Wild Card slot with a 1.5 game lead over the Rays. Both the Rangers and Angels are hovering a little further back in the standings; Texas hosts the Tigers this weekend while the Halos travel to Philadelphia. In the AL East, the Yankees are still two games back in the division and just two games ahead of the Mariners in the Wild Card race and the Red Sox are just a game behind New York. The Yanks are in Atlanta this weekend, while Boston looks to extend their 10-game winning streak against the Cubs in Chicago.