This rebuild is taking as long as it is because the Lerners are cheap, and Ted was the only one in the family who cared about winning.

They tried to get Strasburg to take less than he was contractually owed in a retirement settlement, and he and Scherzer are the top two most highly paid Nats “players” this year. Strasburg, at $25 million a year, will be the most highly paid Nat for the forseeable future. The highest paid guy who actually still plays for them? C Kiebert Ruiz, who Rizzo stupidly gave 8-years, $50 million, Ruiz has always been bad defensively, and he’s increasingly proving he can’t hit well enough to move to 1B or DH. So they’re stuck with him until C Caleb Lomavita is ready in 2028-29, or more likely, until that contract ends after the 2032 season.

They don’t have a legit 1B prospect in the upper minors, quickly got outbid for Walker and never even bothered to extend an offer to Alonso, so they had to trade a RP for Lowe. Otherwise utility IF Trey Lipscomb would have gone into spring training this year as the starting 1B. If somebody is desperate enough to want Lowe and they’re smart enough to trade him at the deadline they’re going to be back in the same situation before next season. Except this time Alonso, and Josh Walker, are going to want and get more $. The Nats will have to make another trade, or overpay an aging veteran like Goldschmidt, Santana, Muncy or Flores. (Or go back to what didn’t work before and resign Gallo or Dominic Smith.)

They have a bunch of nothing (Parker), injured SPs ( an about to be 33 yr old Trevor Williams, Cade Cavalli who hasn’t pitched in MLB since TJ surgery in 2022, a human gopher ball who regularly outsmarts himself with his 8 pitches in Josiah Gray, and DJ Herz) and question marks who have never pitched in MLB yet (Sykora and Susana) behind Gore, who’s a UFA after the 2027 season. They needed to at least try be competitive in 2026 or he’s likely going to get traded at the deadline next year, or before or during the 2027 season. Unless DeBartolo thinks the draft pick they get when Gore walks as a free agent is worth more than the prospects they’re offered in a trade, that is.

So instead of taking one of the most ready college SP and showing both their MLB roster and fans they’re trying to win in 2026 for the first time since their WS title, what do the Lerners and DeBartolo do? They go underslot and select one of the youngest players in the draft.

Here’s what’s going to happen to the Nats:

DeBartolo’s more of an analytics guy than Rizzo, by far. Rizzo had to be basically dragged against his will into 21st century baseball a few years ago when ownership fired all of his top hand picked front office guys. Considering Rizzo whiffed on most of his 1st round draft picks, (most infamously OF Elijah Green who’s back in Rookie ball for the 3rd year in a row) that’s not necessarily a bad thing. But it *does* likely mean DeBartolo and Rizzo probably disagree on what they’re looking for in a player, especially on offense.

From an analytics perspective, most of the Nats offense isn’t very good because they K too much and don’t walk enough. I have very little doubt DeBartolo is going to “reboot” this rebuild in the next 1-1.5 years, just like the CWS rebooted their previous rebuild attempt and traded guys like Giolito, and Crochet (and should have traded Robert) a couple years ago. After Gore gets traded within the next year, the next guy out the door will be CJ Abrams because he’s a UFA after the 2028 season.

Willits isn’t going to zoom through the minors like Jackson Holliday, and even Holliday wasn’t ready as fast as many people thought he was. Even if everything goes perfectly (and it hardly ever does, just ask Nats 2021 #1 pick SS/3B Brady House) Willits isn’t going to be in MLB until 2030.

If the Nats are lucky, Wood will keep developing enough so he brings back a haul of prospects like Soto did. If they’re *really* lucky, Rizzo didn’t whiff on Dylan Crews and he’ll be good enough to get a haul of prospects too. Unfortunately for the Nats, not only is Crews not coming off the IL until at least sometime next month, making 2025 all but a “lost” season for him, some of his minor league stats were a little concerning in the first place. He’s another guy who K’d too much and didn’t walk enough in the minors, and his power #s weren’t good enough to “justify” the tradeoff. Trading Wood and/or Crews is going to further demoralize a fan base that already feels like we’re fans of the Mets/Phillies/Dodgers “AAAA farm team.”

The only draft pick that feels like it’s worked out for Nats fans is Strasburg, and he got “taken” from us far too soon by injury. Even worse, the Lerner family’s treatment of him during the retirement settlement negotiations has ensured Strasburg won’t be back to say goodbye and allow Nats fans to thank him for bringing our first WS title to DC.

Unless the Lerners sell the team to an owner with enough $ to spend to sign multiple expensive free agents like Ted Lerner went out and got OF Jayson Werth and Scherzer, (and this is admitedly going to be difficult now that the Mets have more $ than Scrooge McDuck) the Nats aren’t going to be competitive again until at least 2029. By that point, most of the fan base like me who grew up Orioles fans will have stopped caring.

The Nats benifitted a lot by how much O’s fans in Virginia and DC hated Peter Angelos for what he did to the O’s (like being so “hands on” free agents didn’t want to come to Baltimore, and chasing beloved radio announcer Jon Miller out of town for being too honest and not enough of a homer.) Unless Rubenstein somehow screws up (and he’d almost have to try to screw up as bad as Angelos) the Nats *have* to win to remain relevant in the DMV. Their best crowds over the past few years have been when the Mets, Phillies and O’s are in town. This year, their best crowds have been when those teams, plus the Cubs and Tigers, have been in town.