The New York Yankees (55-44) visit the Toronto Blue Jays (58-41) as the AL East foes clash in the Monday opener of a 3-game series north of the border. The first pitch from Rogers Centre is slated for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Toronto leads 5-2

New York took 2 of 3 games from the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. Before defeating the Braves 12-9 Saturday, the Yankees had been 1-7 over their previous 8 road games. That rough stretch opened with the Yankees losing 4 straight at Toronto June 30-July 3.

The Blue Jays, who are in first place in the AL East 3 games ahead of New York, opened their second half by sweeping 3 games from the San Francisco Giants. Those 3 games were at home where Toronto has won 9 straight.

Yankees at Blue Jays projected starters

LHP Carlos Rodon vs. RHP Kevin Gausman

Rodon (10-6, 3.08 ERA) is making his 21st start. He owns a 1.00 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 119 2/3 innings.

Last outing: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 11-0 win vs. Chicago Cubs July 11Career vs. Blue Jays: 2-2, 4.85 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 45 H, 16 BB, 50 K in 8 startsThrew 1 scoreless inning in Tuesday’s All-Star Game

Gausman (6-7, 4.19 ERA) is making his 20th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 109 2/3 innings.

Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 4-3 loss at Athletics July 12Career vs. Yankees: 10-10, 3.87 ERA (181.1 IP, 78 ER), 181 H, 65 BB, 176 K in 37 games (31 starts)

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Yankees at Blue Jays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 11:33 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Yankees -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Blue Jays -105 (bet $105 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+155) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-190)Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)Yankees at Blue Jays picks and predictionsPrediction

Blue Jays 5, Yankees 4

Toronto scored 36 runs in the June 30-July 3 sweep. The Jays have won 3 of Gausman’s last 4 starts, and the veteran righty has a solid history as a good second-half hurler. He clocked a 2.92 ERA after the break last season and a 3.38 ERA in the second half in 2023.

Rodon has benefited from a .226 batting average on balls in play. The Yanks have lost 3 of his last 4 starts.

Pitching drives the lean here, but there is some baked-in results-vs.-expected sway that plays the other way here. Mainly, New York has underplayed its run scoring; the Yankees are likely deserving of a significantly better record.

Consider a partial-unit play on TORONTO (-105).

No interest. PASS.

The Over has cashed in 10 straight Yanks-at-Jays games. Both clubs have top-third offenses, and Yankee pitching gets some fade treatment for Monday.

TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (+100).

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