Following Friday and Saturday nights’ losses to the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field (wherein the Minnesota Twins’ punchless offense was frustrated to no end by two of MLB’s most ineffective starting pitchers), the dreaded reality surrounding this club became even more apparent: Minnesota should sell at the trade deadline.
Possessing a 13.2% chance of clinching a Wild Card spot, according to FanGraphs, your 2025 Twins are not out of the playoff mix, yet. However, times are becoming increasingly dire, and the front office should strongly consider undergoing a 2017-style retooling, if not a full-scale overhaul. If team decision-makers were to venture down that path, veterans in the final years of their contracts could become expendable. Willi Castro, Chris Paddack, and Danny Coulombe are veterans who fit that mold and will generate interest on the trade market later this month. Yet, none (besides Castro) are more intriguing than veteran outfielder Harrison Bader.
Signed to a one-year, $6.5-million contract this past offseason, the 31-year-old outfielder has excelled in Minnesota, hitting .251/.330/.431 with 11 home runs and a 113 wRC+ over 270 plate appearances. In other words, Bader has hit 13% better than league average at the plate while providing elite outfield defense, primarily patrolling left field. Bader has provided a significant amount of value to Minnesota at the plate and in the field while playing on an expiring contract. That being the case, there is reason to believe the Twins could net a substantial return package if they elect to trade Bader at the July 31 trade deadline.
According to The Athletic’s MLB trade deadline Big Board 2.0, curated by Tim Britton, Chad Jennings, and Twins beat writer Aaron Gleeman, Bader is the 29th-most desirable trade piece this deadline season, with Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay listed as his best fits. With Cleveland listening to trade offers on star relievers Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith, however, signs point toward the Guardians selling later this month. Also, since being recalled to Tampa Bay on Jun. 24, Chandler Simpson has impressed, posting a 138 wRC+ over 75 plate appearances and showing plus range in center field. The 24-year-old has entrenched himself as the club’s starting center fielder of the present and future.
Philadelphia seems like the most clear-cut destination for Bader. Right now, the Phillies’ primary outfield construction consists of Nick Castellanos patrolling right field, with the left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh occupying center and (tell me if you’ve heard this name before) Max Kepler receiving most of the opportunities in left. The three of these veterans converge to be incredibly average, with a 94 wRC+ over 949 combined plate appearances.
Kepler, however, has been the least effective of the bunch, running an 87 wRC+ over 317 plate appearances and playing spotty corner outfield defense. Johan Rojas mixes in as the club’s fourth outfielder, who plays plus defense in center field. However, the right-handed-hitting 24-year-old has yet to produce offensively in his three major-league seasons, restricting him to a part-time role. Philadelphia would strongly benefit from inserting an above-average, right-handed-hitting outfielder who could provide plus range at all three outfield positions.
Again, with Bader being on an expiring contract, Minnesota won’t be able to net a major haul for him. Still, they should be able to get more than a low-minors lottery ticket. Twins decision-makers would be wise to target a position player who can impact the major-league club immediately, while still possessing minor-league options. Interestingly, Philadelphia possesses an intriguing position player who perfectly fits that mold in Otto Kemp.
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Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2022, Kemp quickly moved through Philadelphia’s farm system, progressing from Low-A Clearwater to Triple-A Lehigh Valley last season. The 25-year-old made his major-league debut on Jun. 7 and has maintained a spot on the club’s 26-man roster since, hitting .250/.324/.348 with 23 hits, six doubles, one home run, a 28.4% strikeout rate, and a 91 wRC+ over 102 plate appearances. The right-handed hitting Phillie also possesses significant flexibility, playing 15 games at first base, nine in left field, and five at third base since joining the club a month-and-a-half ago.
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Given how the Twins swoon over versatility, Kemp could blossom into an actual target for Minnesota. Also, considering the fact that Philadelphia has its sights set on winning a championship this season, there is reason to believe top baseball executive Dave Dombrowski would be willing to part ways with a young, controllable asset to acquire Bader’s services as the club attempts to fend off the New York Mets for the NL East title and make a deep playoff push.
Despite being below-average at the plate this season, Kemp and his defensive flexibility would provide immediate value to Minnesota. He could be mixed into the corner outfield, at third base, and at first base. He also has experience playing second base at Triple A, meaning he could mix into the keystone position, too. With Willi Castro’s departure looming, Kemp could assume his super-utility role, as the right-handed hitting 25-year-old can play every position except shortstop, center field, and catcher. Swapping Bader for Kemp could be a savvy one-for-one swap for Minnesota and Philadelphia, especially considering the significantly different competitive stages the two organizations are in.