Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Monday night’s baseball game between the Mariners and the Brewers.

Milwaukee storms into Monday riding a ten-game heater, bulldozing teams with pressure, power, and polish. Seattle’s 11–3 unraveling Sunday exposed bullpen fatigue and left their Wild Card grip loosening. The Brewers boast the NL’s best record and now look to sweep, with Woodruff sharpening and the offense surging. George Kirby shoulders Seattle’s hopes in a series opener that demands their sharpest baseball. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday night baseball game between the Mariners and the Brewers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Woodruff’s 0.68 WHIP dazzles, yet his ramp-up cap keeps him south of 85 pitches, forcing Milwaukee’s middle relief into high-leverage oxygen. That bridge owns a 4.09 xFIP on the road, five ticks worse than the full-season headline. Kirby counters with pristine walk control, but his 44.7% hard-hit rate and .273 xBA scream loud against contact-savvy bats. Milwaukee ranks eighth in chase-contact percentage, shredding nibble guys like Kirby once they see the splitter twice.

Momentum floods the visitor dugout. Ten straight wins, 6.6 runs per game this stretch, and a monstrous 135 wRC+ versus righties in July ignite confidence. Christian Yelich’s barrel rate has climbed from 8% to 12% post-break, and he’s slugging .595 on heaters in that window. Rookie comet Jackson Chourio stretches counts, then punishes mistakes; his .390 xwOBA on sliders punishes Kirby’s favorite bailout pitch. Add William Contreras, whose 48% pull rate spikes against sinkers, and the first three innings carry fireworks potential.

Seattle answers with bigger cannons. Cal Raleigh’s 173 wRC+ at home ranks third among qualified hitters, and his 26% HR/FB ratio loves tonight’s six-to-eight-mph jet stream lofting toward right-center. Julio Rodríguez has rediscovered lift, posting a 21-degree average launch angle his past fifty swings, up from 12 degrees pre-All-Star. Randy Arozarena quietly delivers elite plate discipline; his 13% walk clip pressures Woodruff immediately and crowds Milwaukee’s bullpen phone.

Park context whispers offense despite T-Mobile’s pitcher rep. In 2025, the new humidor settings pushed the run factor to 1.04, eighth highest since May. Temperatures sit 68°, perfect for carry, and Statcast logged a 6% homer boost on comparable wind vectors. Unders hate that recipe. Overs thrive.

Brewers vs. Mariners pick, best bet

Trends reinforce the chaos. Brewers have cleared the total in five of six, cashing by an average 3.8 runs. Mariners overs sit 8-1 their last nine, thanks to a bullpen yawning to a 4.72 ERA versus National League bats. The first-five over has hit in seven straight Seattle games at home, yet the full-game line refuses to budge upward because name brands Woodruff and Kirby sparkle on scorecards.

Counterpunchers tout Woodruff’s dominance and Milwaukee’s stingy pen. I peel back layers. Those eighteen strikeouts hide three homers, all barrels above 107 mph, signalling latent damage once sequencing slips. Joel Payamps shows fatigue, with a 1.46 WHIP across his past nine outings. Trevor Megill’s walk spike—10.5% this month—invites traffic behind him. Seattle’s bullpen owns only one rested leverage arm after yesterday’s 11-3 thumping.

Sharp money expects pitchers’ duel; I see slug-fest veins pulsing. Both squads sit top-ten in stolen bases, manufacturing chaos even when long balls miss. Milwaukee swipes bags at an 83% clip; Seattle counters at 78%. Extra ninety-foot gains shatter unders.

Seven feels insulting. I hammer the over before the number climbs.

Best bet: Mariners vs. Brewers o7.0 total runs (-105)

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