The Baltimore Orioles (44-57) and Cleveland Guardians (51-50) tussle in a Thursday matinee. First pitch from Progressive Field is slated for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Orioles vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 4-2

Baltimore has been outscored 19-10 and outhit 25-18 in dropping the first 3 games of this series. The Orioles have logged a .598 OPS in losing 7 of their last 8 games.

Cleveland has righted the ship since a shaky 11-26 run from May 25-July 6. The Guardians have gone 11-2 with a plus-25 run differential over their last 13 games. Wednesday’s win put them over-.500 for the first time since June 26.

Orioles at Guardians projected starters

RHP Charlie Morton vs. LHP Logan Allen

Morton (5-8, 5.58 ERA) is making his 16th start and 22nd appearance. He owns a 1.56 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 88 2/3 innings.

Last outing: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 11-1 loss at Tampa Bay Rays FridayCareer vs. Guardians: 4-3, 3.21 ERA (47 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 47 K in 8 starts2025 vs. Guardians: 1 home start, loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 6-3 defeat April 15Owns a 6.81 ERA (37 IP, 28 ER) on the road

Allen (6-8, 4.06 ERA) is making his 19th start and 20th appearance. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 95 1/3 innings.

Last outing: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 8-2 home loss to A’s SaturdayCareer vs. Orioles: 2-0, 3.45 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 14 H, 5 BB, 21 K in 3 starts2025 vs. Orioles: 1 road start, win, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 6-3 victory April 15

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Orioles at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:36 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Orioles -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Guardians -115 (bet $115 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+150) | Guardians +1.5 (-185)Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)Orioles at Guardians picks and predictionsPrediction

Orioles 6, Guardians 4

Baltimore’s 2025 season continues to be a lost cause, but with these prices and some pitching tilt toward the visitors — especially looking at actual vs. expected results — the ORIOLES (-105) are the lean in this series finale.

Morton was rocked in his last outing, but he had registered a 2.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 across his previous 5 efforts. Allen’s ERA has been buoyed by a .262 batting average on balls in play, and he struggles mightily the third time through the order. The Cleveland hurler is backed by a slightly more fatigued back end of the bullpen, and Baltimore’s actual-vs.-expected bullpen numbers swing better than Cleveland’s over recent weeks.

TAKE THE ORIOLES (-105).

With the lean on the ML, AVOID a spread wager..

Signals swing both ways here but with a bit more value on the upside of the total. And that’s the way the public has bet this game overnight. On a warm day on Ohio’s north coast, peg a slight lean on OVER 9 (-115).

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