Credit: MiLB.com
The Padres and Orioles have been rumored to be in early stages of trade discussions, and with San Diego on the lookout for depth, the O’s match up well in a trade for an arm.
San Diego’s rotation has been holding steady over the last two months, receiving strong outings from Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek.
Randy Vasquez’s Now You See Me arc has been a pleasant surprise with the feeling of a ticking time bomb, but with the right-hander averaging under five innings a start this season, much stress has been placed on the Padre bullpen.
The Padres went out and grabbed Martin Perez last season for depth out of nowhere, and now, they could look to the AL East for another value addition at the tail end of the rotation.
Padres have talked to the Orioles about Charlie Morton. So maybe the plan is to add a starter like Morton if Cease is dealt for other assets.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 23, 2025
A veteran arm like Charlie Morton could solve this dilemma despite his tumultuous season. Signed to a one-year deal by Baltimore entering the year, Morton started the season as one of the worst starters in baseball, going 0-5 with an ERA over 10 in his first five starts before being demoted to a relief role. Morton then made six outings of multi-inning relief, pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 16.1 innings with 17 strikeouts to eight walks.
Upon returning to the rotation, he pitched his best stretch of the season, posting a 2.76 ERA (with a nearly identical 2.86 FIP) in his next eight starts, covering 42.1 innings, while striking out 48 and walking 14. When looking at that stretch, that’s a 25.8% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate. Morton went five or more innings in seven of the eight starts, providing depth to a beleaguered O’s pitching staff.
Now, the advanced numbers paint an interesting picture of Morton’s season. His fastball has one of the lowest run values in baseball, but his breaking stuff has been just above league average in run value. Morton has been good at generating whiffs, with a 26.9% whiff rate this season.
When compared to Padres starters with a minimum of six starts, Morton’s 26.9% whiff rate ranked third among eight pitchers who meet this criteria, only trailing Michael King and Dylan Cease.
Credit – D. Garcia – EVT Sports
Furthermore, his batted ball numbers show signs of upcoming positive regression to the mean. Morton has a .331 BABIP against him this season, whereas the league average is around .300, and his 69.6% LOB% is below the league average of 72%. ERA estimators, such as xERA, FIP, and xFIP, all indicate that he is pitching better than his ERA. When looking at the back end of the Padres’ rotation and comparing Morton’s numbers, he grades out rather well.
Credit – D. Garcia – EVT Sports
That’s without mentioning his playoff resume. The right-hander has made 18 postseason appearances (17 starts) over his career, and has a career 3.60 ERA and 3.67 FIP in 80 career playoff innings.
In those 80 innings, he has punched out 26.8% of batters while walking 9.6%. He has also been the guy for elimination games. In seven career starts facing elimination, he has a 1.96 ERA. This stretch includes a four-inning save in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series, a five-inning scoreless start in the 2019 Wild Card Game as a member of the Rays, and a pennant-clinching win in Game 7 of the 2020 ALCS.
Now, is Charlie Morton the answer to the Padres’ need for pitching depth?
No, but he would be part of a bigger answer. Think of it as those exam questions with parts A & B. Morton is also due the prorated version of $15 million, so roughly $4.65 million from August 1 to the end of the regular season. With the Padres rumored to be looking to move salary (like Dylan Cease, as covered by EVT editor-in-chief James Clark here), adding Morton’s salary would become plausible.
If San Diego and Baltimore work out a deal in which Baltimore retains part of the salary, it would be even better for Preller and Co. When it comes to the sort of prospect return the Padres would need to give up, the deal would be comparable to the Orioles’ 2019 trade of Andrew Cashner to the Red Sox. In that deal, Baltimore dealt Cashner away for two DSL prospects in Elio Prado and Noelberth Romero. For comparison’s sake, the Padres could deal away a pair of strong DSL performers like Fabian Alcantara or Jose Verdugo, or even some pairing of a low-level (DSL, Rookie, or Single-A) prospect and a non-top 30 near-MLB prospect like Austin Krob or Enmanuel Pinales. San Diego’s farm has options for a return, and with Baltimore looking to refresh their system’s depth and move expiring contracts, the fit here makes sense.
San Diego needs innings at the back of the rotation to support their younger arms, and a veteran like Charlie Morton could serve as that innings-eater at the tail end of the rotation, with playoff experience to boot.
A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.
A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.
Continue Reading