With only days until the MLB trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins are stuck in the uncomfortable middle ground. They’re not a bottom-feeder club with an obvious path toward a complete rebuild, but they also haven’t lived up to preseason expectations. That makes them one of several fringe teams likely to lean toward a “light sell” by dealing away expiring contracts while hanging onto their core pieces.
While that approach may seem sensible at first glance, it comes with real consequences. And in the Twins’ case, there are both compelling risks and potential benefits to a more conservative strategy.
The Downside: Selling Light Means Holding Risk
The most obvious downside of a “light sell” is that Minnesota’s most valuable assets aren’t the rentals that would be traded away. They’re the arms with multiple years of control. Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Joe Ryan are all under team control through at least 2027, and each would command significant value on the trade market. The Athletic recently updated its MLB trade deadline Big Board, and all three pitchers were ranked in the top 10, with Ryan at the top.
But by keeping them past the deadline, the Twins are risking injury, which is something that feels inevitable when it comes to pitchers. Duran dealt with injury issues in the minors, and Ryan has missed time in each of the last two seasons. One awkward landing or one sore shoulder can tank a player’s value, turning what could’ve been a franchise-altering return into an extended rehab schedule.
There’s also the simple math of diminishing value. Every week the team holds onto Duran, Jax, and Ryan in a non-contending season is a week of production they can’t recoup. Minnesota has already used four months of team control on a sub-.500 product. Using up August and September with nothing to show for it only magnifies that inefficiency.
And when it comes to relievers, this is the time to strike. Every year, contenders overpay for bullpen help at the deadline. In July, high-leverage relievers like Duran and Jax become unicorns. Teams dreaming of October pay steep prices for even the illusion of reliability in the late innings. Waiting for the offseason means stepping into a more crowded market, and often it is one that’s less emotional and more patient.
The Upside: Bet on the Offseason or the Bounce-Back
That said, it’s easy to see why the front office may be hesitant to pull the trigger on bigger moves. The trade market for players with multiple years of control often gets more competitive in the winter, when the pool of buyers increases and clubs have more financial flexibility. By holding onto Ryan, Duran, and Jax now, the Twins can wait to see if the market grows and perhaps catch a team willing to pay more in the right setting.
There’s also the 2026 window. The Twins won’t enter a complete rebuild this winter. They have too much talent on the roster and too many veterans signed through next year to pivot into a teardown. Keeping the pitching core in place would allow the team to regroup this offseason and re-enter the AL Central conversation in the spring, a division that has shown time and again that 85 wins can be enough to compete.
And truthfully, it’s hard to get fair value in trades for controlled arms. There’s a reason why frontline starters and dominant relievers rarely get moved with multiple years left. Teams simply don’t want to pay what it takes. If the Twins feel the market won’t reflect the internal value they assign to Ryan, Duran, or Jax, it makes sense to hold.
Plus, there’s always the wild card factor (literally and figuratively). As uninspiring as the 2025 season has been, it’s not mathematically over. Last year’s Tigers club looked like deadline sellers before they got hot in August and clawed their way into the postseason. That team not only made the playoffs but also won a series. If the Twins want any chance of repeating that script, it’ll require big performances from their best arms.
Walking the Tightrope
At the end of the day, a “light sell” leaves the Twins walking a fine line. It may be the most palatable option for a front office trying to navigate the delicate balance between the present and the future. There is also the looming sale of the team hanging over every decision made by Derek Falvey and company. But the risk is clear: holding onto valuable assets in a lost season is a dangerous game, especially when those assets are pitchers.
Still, the Twins’ best path back to relevance may lie in keeping their core intact. They need to be right about the value of time and hope it doesn’t come back to bite them.
Should the Twins do more than a “light sell?” Do you trust the front office to make critical trades? Leave a comment and start the discussion.