The trade deadline is approaching fast, and yet again, the Twins find themselves in a spot where they could rationalize being buyers or sellers. Breaking it down to the studs would be a huge mistake, with the current talent pool. With reinforcements coming off the injured list, there is a world wherein the Twins can have their cake and eat it, too.
Luke Keaschall is nearing a return and is a guy who can be a dynamic top-of-the-lineup bat. I love his offensive profile, his swing decisions are excellent, and he runs the bases like a madman. Having Byron Buxton in the leadoff spot, followed by a guy like Keaschall—who has begun to prove himself as a high OBP guy, a tough out, and can steal a lot of bases—could be a championship-caliber 1-2 punch. That lineup gets really deep if Carlos Correa or Royce Lewis put together consistently competitive at-bats.
Long-term, I see Keaschall as a corner outfielder. I was not overly impressed with his actions at second base, albeit in a very small sample. That makes one of the other corner outfielders very expendable. I doubt Keaschall is moved to a corner outfield spot in the near term, but if they enter “competitive rebuild” mode, I think Harrison Bader is the natural move, since he will become a free agent at season’s end.
The biggest elephant in the room is the back end of the bullpen. The Twins have two premium bullpen arms with team control. The move that checks the most boxes for me is trading Jhoan Duran. He has the best numbers, the team control, and a relatively clean injury history. With a guy who throws that hard, I worry about his longevity. I love Duran and he is so fun to watch, but if they actually could get the two Top 100 prospects that they are asking for, I think it would be wise to pull the trigger. (To be fair, it never was clarified whether Jeff Passan meant two top-100 prospects for just one of Duran and Griffin Jax, or two for the pair of them, or one for each in separate deals. But anyway.)
If Duran is moved, Griffin Jax should be kept. However, one of the realities of modern baseball is that quality relief arms are not hard to come by. I highly doubt the Twins get their asking price for Jax, because his numbers aren’t there this year. Yes, the peripherals are elite, but at the end of the day, how long can you be “unlucky”? Teams will want a shutdown arm if they’re parting with top talent, so I have a hard time seeing that materializing.
One unfortunate reality we may have to come to terms with, as fans, is that we may have seen Joe Ryan’s last start in Minnesota. It is well known they do not sell low, but what about selling high? With his extremely high level of performance and club control, even if he pitches this well next year, it is highly likely Ryan will never have more trade value than he does right now. My stance on starting pitching is a hair different. Finding quality starting pitching is extremely expensive and much harder to come by. If the Twins think they can compete for a World Series while Ryan is controllable, it will feel very silly to have moved him.
The Twins are stuck between a rock and a hard place. I’ve lamented the lack of commitment to rebuilds in the past, but I truly think this roster is talented and that calculated moves can be made to give this team a sniff at making a run at a Wild Card spot. With Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Keaschall coming, that is a deadline splash and a half. Pair that with Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis starting to look like themselves, and all of a sudden, the Twins have a quality playoff rotation and a well-balanced lineup that should make some noise.
Normally, I hate when teams play the deadline with a “one foot in, one foot out” mentality, but this team is in a unique spot where it makes some sense to strategically reload with the possibility to still compete this year. It’s a talented roster, but the Twins would be foolish not to try and strategically move assets. It looks like the writing is on the wall and some version of a selloff is coming, but that doesn’t mean the season should be forfeit from here.