The Brewers are a very good team. They’re also an imperfect team, one that could use an upgrade or two. They’re also a team that is loath to spend money, and a team that—because of its limited resources—must be very careful with its assets.
The Brewers have the best record in baseball, yes. The pitching has been great, the defense has been good, and their speed makes a real difference; the Brewers rank first in infield hits by a comfortable margin and both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference has them among the league leaders in value added via baserunning. This year’s Brewers have proved you can win baseball games without hitting a ton of homers.
But what happens in the playoffs, when an endless parade of high-leverage relievers means batters will rarely, if ever, face a pitcher more than once, and the “stringing hits together” approach becomes more difficult? Having one more guy that could run into one could make all the difference.
Trade season in Milwaukee is already underway with Monday’s acquisition of Danny Jansen. But those who would like to see the Brewers meaningfully upgrade their biggest weakness have their eyes on a larger prize, whether that’s the oft-linked Arizona third baseman Eugenio Suárez (who, despite an injury scare on Monday, is still likely to be moved), a lesser but still significant addition (Ryan O’Hearn? Brandon Lowe?), or an unlikely blockbuster out of left field (Oneil Cruz? Ketel Marte?), it’s worth asking the question: what should the Brewers do?
What could they do?
There are multiple approaches Matt Arnold and the Milwaukee front office could take. A quick review of what those could be:
They could do almost nothing (else). Including Jansen, the Brewers have already made three trades during this season for players who are playing real roles on this team. It’s easy to forget, but Quinn Priester was acquired early in the season when the Brewers were in dire need of a starting pitcher. Andrew Vaughn was acquired last month in exchange for Aaron Civale in a swap of players who their teams no longer needed. That one has certainly worked out so far. With the move to bring in Jansen as the new backup catcher, the front office could credibly say that they’ve actively addressed their needs throughout the season, it just didn’t all come at the deadline.
They could make further minor additions. This feels most likely and fits this front office’s M.O. Think of last season, when they acquired Nick Mears and Frankie Montas, or two years ago, when they picked up Carlos Santana and Mark Canha. All of those players helped, but none were stars. The Brewers could get a utility infielder that they feel is an upgrade on Andruw Monasterio and an alternative to Joey Ortiz and maybe one more bullpen arm and feel that they’ve done their job.
They could make a major move. It has been some time since the Brewers made a trade deadline acquisition that would be considered “major”. They did trade for All-Star Eduardo Escobar at the deadline in 2021, but he was hitting just .246 with a .300 on-base percentage when the Brewers acquired him. In 2018, they traded for Jonathan Schoop, Mike Moustakas, and Joakim Soria at the deadline—all prominent players at the time, but none stars. Before that, the most notable acquisition is Francisco Rodríguez during the All-Star break in 2011, and then we get back to the biggest deadline-ish acquisition in team history: the early July 2008 trade for CC Sabathia. There don’t seem to be any candidates on Sabathia’s level available this season, but we could always be surprised. A trade for Suárez or any of the other notable names I mentioned earlier would fall into this category.
So what should they do?
Fortune favors the bold. But it’s also true that when it comes to gambling, you can’t lose if you don’t play.
I would not describe this Brewers front office as aggressive nor passive. They make moves when they need to, as evidenced by the Priester trade. But above all, they’re smart. Smart teams tend to approach bold moves with suspicion; bold moves carry more risk, and teams like the Brewers and Rays succeed because they are very cautious when getting involved in risky situations.
That being said, the “you can’t lose if you don’t play” adage goes both ways. What is the danger in not acting? The Brewers enter Tuesday with the best record in baseball. But what if they mostly stand pat, and their offense sputters out again in the postseason? There’s no way to know if a trade in July will have a direct impact on what happens in October, but Milwaukee has never won a World Series, and it would be nice to feel like the front office understands what that means to the fans.
The Brewers have one of the best and deepest farm systems in baseball, and I’m of the opinion that front offices tend to hold a little too tight to their prospects (just as I also believe that many NBA teams hang on too tight to their middling first-round picks). Jesús Made should be untouchable. Luis Peña and Cooper Pratt probably should be, too, unless the Brewers have a really big surprise in store. But there are a lot of good players in this system, and for the right deal, Milwaukee should be willing to deal from a place of strength.
That place of strength could also be the starting rotation. If a deal comes up that helps the major league team, or a team gets irresponsibly desperate for a starting pitcher, the Brewers should consider trading from their surplus. I’d try to hang on to Logan Henderson if possible, but I’d listen on him, Chad Patrick, Tobias Myers, and Jose Quintana.
Could anyone from the major league squad leave?
On that thought, Brewers fans know better than most that there is inherent danger in shaking up a team that’s playing well. Don’t expect any major pieces to leave this squad like Josh Hader did in 2022, even if the Brewers have used a “buy and sell” approach in the past. The only notable free agents at season’s end include Quintana, Rhys Hoskins (injured), Nestor Cortes (hasn’t pitched in the majors in months), and Brandon Woodruff (I’d be shocked if the Brewers traded Woodruff, a fan favorite and the clubhouse leader, away from a contending team, after the lessons of 2022).
Given the club’s glut of starting pitching options, I won’t say it’s impossible that Quintana gets traded, but I would guess that someone who hasn’t been as important to the team’s rotation this season would go first (think Cortes, Myers, or, in a bigger deal, Patrick or Henderson).
Conclusion
Teams like the Brewers thrive on opportunism. They shouldn’t be afraid to push a little bit more than they’re used to this trade season. Yes, there’s always risk in trading prospects, especially highly regarded ones, and the Brewers will not want to put their very bright future at risk. But if you’re feeling especially frightened about giving up a prospect or two that you like, I’m just going to remind you that the combined career WAR of the four players that the Brewers traded for Christian Yelich is negative 7.0.