We thought we knew who the Seattle Mariners were — one of the top-to-bottom best pitching staffs in baseball, with an offense that would struggle to keep its head above water. If they were to be a playoff team, it would be on the backs of that elite rotation. Fast-forward to the quarter pole of the season, and the AL West-leading M’s boast the third-best offense in baseball, but are the definition of a mediocre pitching staff. Although they’re coming off a rough weekend where the Toronto Blue Jays swept them in their ballpark, they had won their last nine series in a row before then.

Injuries to Logan Gilbert and George Kirby will do that, decapitating arguably the best 1-2 punch in the American League. However, having 10 hitters who have played in at least 20 games all hitting above average by wRC+ will help to balance out that loss, and while I don’t think Jorge Polanco will run a 194 wRC+ all season, he’s bought a lot of slack as skipper Dan Wilson and company wait for their co-aces to return. A special salute also goes out to Cal Raleigh, who has immediately done his part to justify Seattle’s pre-Opening Day extension by blasting a dozen homers in 38 games — no small feat for a catcher.

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Monday — Clarke Schmidt vs. Emerson Hancock (9:40pm)

Clarky’s coming into his own, coming off two-straight solid starts against Toronto and San Diego. He’s walking too many batters — an 11.4-percent rate that’s the highest since he threw six innings in 2021. Schmdit has also added a couple of ticks to his fastball, but that hasn’t exactly translated to swing-and-miss stuff just yet.

On paper, Hancock is the easiest opponent the Yankees will have in this series, as the 26-year-old has struggled across his first five starts. He keeps the ball around the strike zone, with low strikeout and walk rates, but a .360 BABIP has had him die by a thousand cuts to the tune of a 5.70 ERA. A .360 BABIP will come down, but the Yankees can try and keep it that high for one more outing.

Tuesday — Max Fried vs. Bryan Woo (9:40pm)

We have an ace-off.

Woo and Fried have had virtually identical seasons if you look beyond ERA, separated by 0.03 points of FIP and 0.07 points of xFIP. They’re atop their respective rotations, and have become the guy who you circle his starts and expect to win the game. Indeed, the Yankees have won every single game Fried has started for them, even though he didn’t factor into the decision of that extra-innings win over the Padres.

It’s fun to get a matchup of true No. 1s, but of course that means we’re going to see a 12-10 final score.

Wednesday — Will Warren vs. Luis Castillo (4:10pm)

This one’s all about the follow-up. Warren is coming off his best start in the majors, going 7.1 innings allowing a single run against the Athletics on Friday night. That’s an unsustainable bar for any pitcher who’s not prime Pedro, but for Warren to make the jump to full-time MLB starter, he has to be able to pull together multiple good outings in a row. He really hasn’t done that yet, but the best time to start is Wednesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, Yankee fans should be pretty familiar with once and future trade target Castillo. He’s been slightly below his own standards, driven by a precipitous decline in swing-and-miss stuff. His fastball is as good as it’s ever been, but in particular a drop-off in movement on his slider has taken it from a weapon to a liability.