The Miami Marlins might hold onto Sandy Alcantara past this week’s MLB trade deadline just to avoid having to compete against him. Alcantara reached the big leagues in 2017 as a member of the St. Louis Cardinals, who dealt him to Miami during the subsequent offseason. He has tormented them ever since, and that continued on Tuesday. He lowered his lifetime ERA to 1.71 in seven career head-to-head matchups as the Marlins rebounded from an uninspiring loss with a 5-0 shutout victory to even up the series.
Alcantara’s first pitch of the night was inauspicious, hitting Masyn Winn on the back. The right-hander’s control was a recurring issue as he matched a season-high with five free passes (walks and hit-by-pitches combined). The Cardinals had baserunners against in every inning. None of them came around to score, though.Â
It helped that Alcantara did not face a full-strength St. Louis lineup. Leadoff man Brendan Donovan got a rare rest day and defensive-minded catcher Pedro Pagés (54 wRC+) started over Yohel Pozo (120 wRC+). On the other hand, a transaction completed earlier in the day disrupted Alcantara’s routine. This was Liam Hicks‘ first time catching Sandy since June 28 because his usual battery mate, Nick Fortes, was traded to Tampa Bay.
Hicks encouraged Alcantara to lean heavily on his curveball—he threw the pitch more times (32) than he had in any of his previous 158 Marlins starts. But in the highest-leverage moment, facing Alec Burleson with the bases loaded in the bottom of the fifth, Alcantara put him away with a firm changeup expertly placed just off the outside corner.
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Alcantara’s final line: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 K (94 pitches/55 strikes). That comes on the heels of his best performance of the season against the San Diego Padres on the last homestand (7.0 IP, 0 ER). He has unquestionably upped his trade value at the ideal time.
However, I’m skeptical that his value has risen enough to justify parting ways now.
Alcantara isn’t particularly close to re-establishing himself as an ace. Per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 10th percentile among MLB pitchers in whiff rate, a number that only marginally increased in St. Louis. His reliance on the defense behind him is more extreme than ever.
The aforementioned Padres start was the only time in 2025 that Alcantara has recorded an out in the seventh inning. Even before winning the NL Cy Young Award, what made him “El Caballo” was the efficiency and determination to consistently give the bullpen a day off. A contending team acquiring this version of him won’t be able to bank on that.
Perhaps I’m out of touch with the way that front offices are evaluating pitchers, or perhaps they are willing to pay a steep price for Alcantara anyway because all of the other arms on the market have their own warts. In my opinion, he is currently a solid No. 4 starter with an impeccable track record of durability outside of Tommy John surgery. While there is value in that, he is doubtful to swing a pennant race.
As we have frequently noted on Fish On First, the Marlins have leverage. Given his contract status and the encouraging trajectory of the team relative to expectations, they shouldn’t trade away yet another beloved veteran unless they are overwhelmingly confident that it brightens their long-term outlook. I don’t believe that “too good to refuse” offer is out there for them yet.
More than any other player I’ve covered, I trust Sandy Alcantara to continue improving as he gets acclimated to his reconstructed UCL and evolving repertoire. The best course of action would be to retain him through season’s end, then re-evaluate.
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Non-Sandy Notes
– Selected from Triple-A Jacksonville prior to the game, Marlins minor league legend Troy Johnston was Miami’s starting first baseman in his major league debut. He singled to right field off of Sonny Gray in the top of the second inning and scored on Graham Pauley’s two-run home run. He also doubled Jordan Walker off of first base on a pop-up. With left-hander Steven Matz on the mound in the sixth inning, Johnston was replaced by pinch-hitter Dane Myers.
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– The Marlins offense has been especially productive with two outs and Tuesday was no exception. All five of their runs were scored under those circumstances. Aside from Pauley, Otto Lopez, Eric Wagaman and Xavier Edwards drove in one run apiece.
– AgustÃn RamÃrez picked up his third stolen base of the season. Each of those steals have been of third base. Meanwhile, no other Marlin has stolen 3B more than once. I found that interesting.
– Calvin Faucher, Ronny Henriquez and Valente Bellozo threw up zeroes of their own in relief of Alcantara.
– Cal Quantrill and Miles Mikolas are scheduled to start Wednesday’s 7:45 p.m. ET rubber game. Even more so than Alcantara, the Marlins are motivated to trade the pending free agent Quantrill before the deadline, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he got scratched before the game begins amid negotiations.