Credit: USA Today Sports
The Padres have been rumored to move starting pitcher Dylan Cease to fortify their roster and align with their payroll goals.
On the evening of July 30, roughly 17 hours before the MLB trade deadline, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that Padres right-hander Dylan Cease was a “main target” for the Houston Astros. Certainly, a deal makes sense, but only hours later, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Astros and Padres’ talks for Cease “cooled down”.
The Astros are making a big push for Dylan Cease, with one source saying the starter is Houston’s “main target.”
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) July 31, 2025
The Houston Astros are now engaged in trade discussions with the Miami Marlins for ace Sandy Alcantara after talks with the San Diego Padres for starter Dylan Cease have cooled.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 31, 2025
“So what is actually going on?” is a great question to have. It is known around the league that the Padres want to fortify their roster while shedding some form of payroll. The team is also reportedly shopping closer Robert Suarez, who is also in line to be a free agent after the 2025 season if he turns down two player options.
Padres All-Star closer Robert Suarez is being discussed in trades, rivals say. Suarez has $16M, 2-year player option he should decline. Padres pen is the best but they’d likely want to add another reliever if they trade Suarez. Dylan Cease also remains in many trade talks.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 30, 2025
Back to Cease. The right-hander is clearly the biggest trade chip the Padres have, and several American League contenders could be lining up for his services. Houston has been mentioned as a candidate, and teams like the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, or Texas Rangers stand as logistical candidates with their minor league systems to make a deal happen. San Diego remains steadfast in acquiring an MLB-ready outfielder or catcher, along with prospects for Cease. However, teams also know the Padres want to clear salary to make other additions, which could prove a difficult factor at the negotiating table.
The Dylan Cease dilemma is not too much different from 2024’s Yusei Kikuchi sweepstakes. Both involve starting pitchers with uninspiring surface-level numbers and peripherals that paint a more optimistic picture. However, with Cease, there are not as many numbers that indicate positive regression to the mean. The right-hander has only thrown one quality start in the last six weeks, and even with one of the highest K/9’s of MLB starters, he is allowing lots of hard contact (10.7% of balls in play classify as barrels, per Baseball Savant). Cease has also been inefficient in his last five starts, which show worrying trends. Cease has labored through these last few starts, as his pitch counts get high in a small number of innings. His last start against the Mets is a good microcosm of the season he is having:
4.2 innings, 5 hits, 5 earned runs, 5 walks, 9 strikeouts, 102 pitches – 61 strikes
Cease has been getting swings-and-misses, but with his fastball-slider heavy approach, batters are timing him up for harder and harder contact. Cease also is walking his most batters since 2023 while allowing homers on an inflated 13.3% home run per fly ball ratio. While ERA estimators are more bullish on his work this season (3.54 xERA, 3.64 FIP, 3.39 xFIP), his batted ball metrics do not reinforce this outlook. Cease has the arsenal to get whiffs in bunches, but batters are still barreling up his fastball and pulling it in the air, which has led to his struggles with the home run ball.
Teams on the hunt for starting pitchers can believe “we can fix him” for the rest of the season, but moving Cease remains the Padres’ best option for moving payroll and bringing in prospects and resources for other additions. Even with conflicting reports, some buyers may balk at the prices for arms like Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, or they may not believe in the upside of arms like Adrian Houser and Zach Eflin. Dylan Cease remains an appealing trade candidate for teams in the hunt. It would be a gamble, but teams know the reward of such an add can outweigh the risk.
A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.
A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.
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