Regression came hard for the Mariners over a three-game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays: the bottom of the lineup failed to start the engine of the top half of the lineup as it had so often during the historic nine-series win streak, while the pitching continued to struggle; the most effective starter was rookie Logan Evans, who didn’t get much help from the BABIP gods nor his lineup. The de facto staff aces of Bryan Woo and Emerson Hancock (?!?!?) will take over from here with a tough assignment facing the AL East-leading Yankees, fresh off a series win in Oakland Sacramento West Sacramento.
At a Glance
Yankees
Mariners
Yankees
Mariners
Game 1
Monday, May 12 | 6:40 pm
RHP Clarke Schmidt
RHP Emerson Hancock
54%
46%
Game 2
Tuesday, May 13 | 6:40 pm
LHP Max Fried
RHP Bryan Woo
51%
49%
Game 3
Wednesday, May 14 | 1:10 pm
RHP Will Warren
RHP Luis Castillo
48%
52%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
Team Overview
Overview
Yankees
Mariners
Edge
Overview
Yankees
Mariners
Edge
Batting (wRC+)
135 (1st in AL)
119 (2nd in AL)
Yankees
Fielding (OAA)
-5 (11th)
-6 (13th)
Yankees
Starting Pitching (FIP-)
95 (6th)
92 (4th)
Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)
79 (4th)
106 (12th)
Yankees
Once contending with the Tigers for best record in the AL, the Yankees have seen their iron-clad grip on the AL East falter some lately as Boston has put together a strong streak over the past few weeks, creeping into second place at just two games back. Toronto is now hot on their heels after sweeping the Mariners. Aaron Judge remains the best player in baseball by a laughable margin; his 3.6 fWAR are a full win above the next-closest player (Bobby Witt Jr). He’s slashing close to .400/.500/.800, which, no matter how you feel about the Yankees and their short porch, is some absolutely amazing to witness in real time stuff.
Yankees Lineup
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Ben Rice
DH
L
144
23.6%
10.4%
0.309
165
Aaron Judge
RF
R
180
21.1%
13.3%
0.370
254
Cody Bellinger
CF
L
150
19.3%
10.0%
0.160
90
Paul Goldschmidt
1B
R
167
17.4%
7.2%
0.151
155
Jasson Domínguez
LF
S
134
30.6%
11.9%
0.198
127
Anthony Volpe
SS
R
165
26.1%
10.3%
0.181
110
Austin Wells
C
L
134
19.4%
7.5%
0.248
106
Oswaldo Cabrera
3B
S
117
21.4%
8.5%
0.068
84
Jorbit Vivas
2B
L
24
29.2%
16.7%
0.053
60
Even though the Yankees weren’t able to re-sign Juan Soto this offseason, they’ve done an admirable job of recreating Soto’s production in the aggregate: newcomers Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger have been productive, Trent Grisham has bounced back after a few down seasons, and Ben Rice has enjoyed a big breakout. The problem is that there are only four spots in the lineup for Goldschmidt, Bellinger, Grisham, Rice, and Jasson Domínguez. The Yankees have essentially rotated those five players through the two corner outfield spots, first base, and designated hitter. Of course, everything hinges around Judge. There aren’t enough superlatives to describe what he’s doing this year.
Probable Pitchers
Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Clarke Schmidt
20 2/3
21.6%
11.4%
11.1%
37.3%
4.79
4.62
Emerson Hancock
23 2/3
16.7%
6.9%
12.0%
48.7%
5.70
4.22
RHP Clarke Schmidt
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Sinker
7.0%
93.7
Cutter
42.1%
92.2
90
74
101
0.308
Curveball
21.3%
84.8
112
0
0
Sweeper
27.7%
84.3
106
136
118
0.241
A lat strain interrupted what could have been a big breakout season from Clarke Schmidt last year. He had made the switch from a four-seamer to a hard cutter back in 2023, and was finally rewarded with positive results in ‘24. The cut fastball plays better off his big sweeping slider and his hammer curveball and he’s also got a sinker to provide yet another look for opposing batters to deal with. The injury bug struck again this spring; he was sidelined with a shoulder injury to begin the season and has only made four starts in the big leagues. He looked a bit shaky through his first three outings, but his last start was a solid six-inning affair against the Padres in which he allowed just two runs.
Game 2 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Max Fried
51 2/3
22.6%
5.3%
5.9%
50.7%
1.05
2.93
Bryan Woo
44 1/3
25.3%
4.6%
7.3%
35.0%
3.25
2.92
LHP Max Fried
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
40.1%
93.9
104
89
121
0.285
Sinker
18.8%
93.4
112
151
112
0.287
Cutter
3.5%
86.2
Changeup
9.9%
84.2
96
Curveball
14.8%
75.6
119
109
56
0.229
Sweeper
12.1%
80.0
107
109
49
0.517
After missing out on Juan Soto, the Yankees immediately pivoted and signed Max Fried to a huge eight-year, $218 million contract. It has worked out fantastically so far. He’s leading all qualified starters in ERA, though his FIP and xFIP are both significantly higher than his surface level results might indicate. Still, he’s already a frontrunner for the AL Cy Young award and that’s exactly what the Yankees needed out of him after losing Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery this spring. Fried has essentially been the same pitcher as he was with the Braves: an odd cut four-seam fastball gives him a unique foundation while a pair of fantastic breaking balls give him the out pitches he needs to earn swings and misses.
Game 3 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Will Warren
36
25.9%
10.1%
12.5%
46.5%
4.75
3.62
Bryce Miller
43 1/3
17.5%
9.5%
7.1%
46.0%
3.95
4.11
RHP Will Warren
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
37.2%
93.1
98
129
120
0.293
Sinker
17.5%
92.8
108
78
83
0.395
Changeup
15.5%
87.0
83
88
72
0.375
Curveball
5.0%
80.2
Sweeper
24.9%
82.4
108
96
70
0.344
All the injuries in the Yankees starting rotation have given Will Warren an opportunity to prove he can stick in the big leagues. He entered the season as the Yankees second ranked prospect behind Domínguez and had a fantastic spring training — he might have earned a spot in the rotation even without all those injuries popping up. He’s got a good fastball that has plenty of carry up at the top of the zone and pairs it with two different breaking balls that are both plus pitches. The sweeper is a classic Yankee whirly but he reintroduced a curveball into his pitch mix this year and that second breaking ball has looked fantastic so far. The only thing holding him back from top-of-the-rotation potential is mediocre command that has driven his walk rate up into the double-digits this year.
The Big Picture:
AL West Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Mariners
22-17
0.564
—
W-W-L-L-L
Astros
20-19
0.513
2.0
L-W-W-L-W
Athletics
21-20
0.512
2.0
L-L-L-W-L
Rangers
20-21
0.488
3.0
L-L-L-W-W
Angels
16-23
0.410
6.0
W-L-L-W-L
The A’s and Astros both drew closer while the Mariners got swept against the Blue Jays, despite the A’s dropping a series to the same Yankees the Mariners are about to see. As punishment for the hubris of enjoying Sutter Home Park for the past week, the A’s head out to play at Dodger Stadium this week, so as the Yankees roll into T-Mobile Park, let’s all have a shared Ave Imperator, morituri te salutant. The Astros enjoyed a series win against the Reds, and came close to a sweep despite Lance McCullers imploding in his first return to MLB since Truman was in office. They go on to welcome Kansas City, enjoying a recent upswing after a slow start to the season. The Rangers also won their series against the Tigers, who looked pretty mortal against Texas’s pitching while getting outscored 17- 6. So apparently Bret Boone works. The Rangers now get to pad their resume against the Rockies, who just fired Bud Black in a move the Oracle of Delphi is calling “maybe too much.” Also, the Angels are a team in the AL West.