Mike Elias created this mess. He took a major step Thursday to digging the Orioles out of it.
The Baltimore Orioles didn’t think they’d be sellers at Thursday’s MLB trade deadline on Opening Day, but thanks to Elias’ failure to bolster the rotation in the offseason, a rash of injuries and regression from the team’s core group of stars, there was no other option.
It was a crazy 24 hours around the league, as it always is.
Think the Orioles gutted their club? The Twins traded 11 off their 40-man roster, and they’re only 6.0 games out of the final American League Wild Card spot, a game-and-a-half ahead of the 50-59 Orioles.
The 60-49 Padres went all in, trading their prospects rated 1, 2, 3, 7, 12, 13, 17 and 26 by MLB Pipeline to still be the second-best team in their division behind the Dodgers (yikes!).
Their craziest package included baseball’s No. 3 prospect, switch-hitting shortstop Leo De Vries, for Athletics closer Mason Miller (double yikes!). No relief pitcher is worth that much.
Baltimore was a beneficiary of the Padres’ aggression, dealing first baseman Ryan O’Hearn and right fielder Ramón Laureano for six prospects — one of which I really like. We’ll get in the weeds a bit later.
The Orioles dealt nine players in total and brought in 16 prospects, a Major League high.
Add them to the 21 prospects signed from this year’s MLB Draft, in which the Orioles spent a record $21,150,840, and they went from having a gutted farm system to one of baseball’s deepest in a few weeks time.
Most of those prospects will never play for the Orioles, but their infusion to the farm system gives the team assets to trade for a front-end starter like it did for Corbin Burnes two offseasons ago — something Elias, the team’s general manager, must do this winter.
With that said, it was a somber day for even the most rational Orioles fans.
Fan favorite Cedric Mullins, the longest-tenured Oriole remaining and the last holdover from the rebuild, was shipped to the Mets for three pitchers.
Remember people, the Orioles traded Frank Robinson and Eddie Murray too. Baseball’s a business.
Utility man Ramon Urias was a plus defender and clutch bat and was flipped for a Single-A arm, my least favorite trade Elias made (though Twine Palmer is a big league name if I’ve ever seen one).
The Orioles’ bullpen is barren with Bryan Baker, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Dominguez and Andrew Kittredge being dealt.
O’Hearn and Laureano have arguably been Baltimore’s most consistent players this year and brought back the biggest haul.
Then there’s 41-year-old “Uncle” Charlie Morton, who many Orioles fans, myself included, wanted to be released in April, who was turned into a 6-foot-7 left-handed Double-A reliever. That’ll play.
Just one of the farm hands acquired has reached Triple-A, giving emotional fans sad to see their favorite players shipped out pause, but again, this is as much about stocking assets as it is about developing them.
Think 2022 when the Orioles, still in contention, sold, and they turned around and won 101 and 91 games over the next two seasons.
Several things can be true at the same time:
1. Elias failed this offseasonThey could’t keep Burnes, but you can’t enter a season with your No. 1 being injury-prone Grayson Rodriguez, who has never thrown 125 innings in a season. He still hasn’t thrown a pitch this year.
They were just hoping to survive with Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano added to Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Zach Eflin and Cade Povich until Kyle Bradish came back from Tommy John surgery or they could make a deal at the deadline.
It was a colossal failure.
2. The core responsible for the Orioles’ “World Series window” hasn’t been good enoughFormer No. 1 pick Adley Rutschman has gotten worse every year since the catcher’s rookie year, first defensively and then at the plate beginning in the second half of last year.
Shortstop Gunnar Henderson, another former top prospect, missed spring training with a chest injury and took a full month to get back to the form that saw him finish fourth in MVP voting last year.
With Henderson’s slow start, one of several on the team, the Orioles started 15-31.
They’re 35-28 since, but it’s too little, too late.
3. None of that core was tradedRutschman, Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo (yes, Coby Mayo is going to be a very solid contributor for years to come) will still be in the lineup this season and beyond.
The rest of the year is about development and getting those guys right for 2026.
4. You don’t keep veteran players just because they’re popularThe Orioles can’t make the playoffs. It’s impossible situated last in the best division in baseball.
O’Hearn, Mullins, Morton, Dominguez and Soto were all pending free agents, so they got value for players potentially out the door.
Baker and Laureano, O’Hearn too, are in the midst of the best seasons of their careers, so the Orioles sold high.
Urias is eligible for arbitration next year, so you’re avoiding a raise for an average player who is not a starter, one who was discovered in the Rule 5 Draft.
And again, the final stretch of the season is about development. In addition to assets, the trades make room for top prospects Sammy Basallo and Dylan Beavers, both knocking on the door in Triple-A, to get their feet wet.
We probably won’t see them until at least Aug. 15, allowing them to still be eligible for Rookie of the Year next year and hopefully net the Orioles a comp pick in the process.
Basallo, a 20-year-old catching prospect ranked No. 9 in all of baseball, might take longer since his defense behind the plate isn’t there yet (it’s not a pretty sight). His bat is ready as a first baseman/designated hitter, and he has the potential for a 40-homer season or two before it’s all said and done.
It doesn’t make sense to learn how to catch while also trying to figure out how to hit a 98 mile per hour two-seamer starting at your hip.
He’ll be a September call-up.
5. The Orioles got a solid returnNine of the 16 players the Orioles got via trade were ranked inside the top 30 of their respective organization, and another, Slater de Brun (acquired by trading Baker for the No. 37 pick in the draft), is currently in the Orioles’ Top 10.
My favorite prospect is Boston Bateman, obtained in the Padres trade. Nicknamed “Sasquatch” in high school, the 6-foot-8 left-hander with a mid-90s fastball may be the closer of the future.
Then there’s Raimon Gomez, picked up in the Mullins deal, who averages a 100 mph fastball and has touched 104.5, has a plus slider but has zero control.
If nothing else, the Orioles have a track record of fixing talented relief pitching prospects during the Elias era, resurrecting Felix Bautista’s career, who had a similar knock on his command and didn’t make his MLB debut until 28.
Cionel Perez, Jorge Lopez, Dillon Tate and Yennier Cano (sans this year) also fit that mold.
6. The Orioles have a promising farm system nowEleven of the players Baltimore traded for are pitchers, as were 11 of the 21 draft picks it signed.
That’s just what an organization that has struggled to develop starting pitching depth needed.
Fault him for his free agency failings, but Elias has been able to identify and develop offensive talent through the draft.
They snagged the best defensive catcher in the draft (Caden Bodine), arguably the most advanced college bat (Ike Irish), the Golden Spikes Award winner for best college player (Wehiwa Aloy) and one of the best high school bats (de Brun) with their first four picks.
All four of those guys are likely future Orioles in some capacity or attractive trade bait next year.
7. This is the most important offseason, maybe everThe Orioles need to spend money. They shaved millions off the book at the deadline, so there’s no excuses anymore.
Billionaire owner David Rubenstein, a Baltimore native, has to be embarrassed by what has transpired.
Lest we forget, stingy owner Peter Angelos and the Orioles had baseball’s No. 1 payroll in 1998. New owners are not afraid to spend.
Elias stood in his way this past offseason, but I’m sure he’ll get over his apprehension to spend money in desperation to save his job.
All that is to say, Thursday seemed like a dark day for Orioles fans, but it really was the first step in brighter days ahead.
When the Orioles sold Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop for a bag of balls after playoff runs in the 2010s, there was little talent left behind and little farm system on the horizon.
This is an entirely different situation.
If Elias can’t dig the Orioles out of the mess he helped create and make the postseason in 2026, Elias won’t have a job.