On January 11, 2023, the Minnesota Twins signaled a new era and shocked the baseball world by signing star shortstop Carlos Correa to a six-year deal with four additional team options. Correa had enjoyed his initial season in Minnesota prior to his opt-out, and the front office promised Correa that if he chose to re-sign, they would be all-in on fielding a team with World Series aspirations.
This message made it to the public, too. In a presser the day of the signing, Derek Falvey said: “What’s clear to us is that adding Carlos back to the mix, [we want to continue to add], We will continue to think about ways to be creative”.
Fresh off this signing, morale among the fanbase was at a recent high, and signs were pointing skyward. Later that season, the Twins broke their playoff curse, and after the season ended, they immediately sent a letter to fans promising the best was yet to come.
Just 21 months after the fateful playoff series win, the Twins held a fire sale, moving on from their star shortstop less than halfway through his tenure. What were the factors that led us to this point?
Ownership kneecapping the ability to field a complete roster
Remember Falvey’s promise to field a winner? There’s no reason to doubt his intentions or that he believed he would have payroll flexibility to do so. However, shortly after the 2023 playoff run, team owner Jim Pohlad talked about “rightsizing the payroll”. We all know the impact this made on fan morale, but it also has prevented the Twins from filling canyon-sized holes on their roster.
The Twins went into 2024 with basically no money to spend despite needing a starting pitcher, a first baseman, Byron Buxton insurance, and a bullpen arm or two. Falvey was forced to shop in the scrap heap. First he traded away Jorge Polanco and his $10M contract to free up some money. Carlos Santana was a revelation for cheap, but the trio of Manuel Margot, Anthony DeSclafani, and Justin Topa were either dreadful or didn’t play. Then, at the trade deadline, in desperate need for reinforcements as the Twins held an 88% likelihood to make the postseason, the only move was to sign low-end reliever Trevor Richards. The Twins crashed and burned.
Coming into 2025, the Twins needed a first baseman and a big bat, but the budget only allowed for signing Ty France. It didn’t go well.
Looking forward, a number of players were set to head deeper into arbitration, and would be getting more expensive: Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, and Ryan Jeffers. This forced some difficult decisions and ultimately, a dismantling of the roster at the trade deadline.
When you are paying one player 30% of your payroll, have Pablo Lopez and Byron Buxton making roughly $37 million combined accounting for another 30%, that just doesn’t leave any margin for signing players that can actually move the team forward. His contract, combined with the Pohlad being richpoor, prevented the Twins from making the moves they needed to. Saving almost $70 million over the next three seasons creates some flexibility and opens possibilities that just haven’t existed for the past two seasons. If only the Pohlads had kept their implicit (and honestly, sort of explicit) promise, things could have gone differently.
Injuries and declining production
To be clear, when Falvey signed Correa to his mega deal, the front office was almost certainly expecting a different caliber of production and health than what they received. When you spend $35 million a year, you expect a player who is a perennial All-Star. Over the first two and a half seasons of Correa’s deal, the Twins got All-Star play in just one of them.
In 2023, Correa suffered from plantar fasciitis in his left foot. He had attempted to play through it for much of the season, and it clearly limited his approach at the plate as he put up a 94 wRC+ in 135 games.
2024 was the sort of season the Twins thought they were signing Correa for, as he was having his best season in years. He hit 55% better than average, while showing his typical stellar defense. He was, however, limited to 86 games as plantar fasciitis limited him heavily. He also suffered an oblique strain. But, by rate, he would have received some MVP votes if he had been healthy.
2025 brought us right back to 2023: Correa’s offensive production was below average, and even his typically strong defense took a step back. Additionally, he developed an alarming propensity for grounding into double plays when it mattered most. He swung at pitches at the highest level of his career, and got torn up by sliders. By WPA, Correa cost the Twins nearly four wins this season.
In short, it seems that the Twins (likely correctly) determined that they just wouldn’t get the Correa they were hoping to, and that the contract might hamper them more and more as time passes. To be clear, none of this means Correa is a bad player, or an invaluable one. Even beyond his on-field play, he’s a leader, role model, mentor, and good guy. But, he didn’t consistently give the Twins what they needed to contend. If only he could have played at an All-Star clip, and stayed healthy. Maybe things would have ended up differently.
Misalignment with Correa’s wishes
I won’t go into this one deeply, as Cody Christie did so already. I will say that this is obviously tricky, because the Twins didn’t sign Correa to be a third baseman. They couldn’t afford to pay a third baseman that kind of money, especially one that doesn’t have a .900 OPS, and especially when they didn’t have a solid shortstop to replace him. And, Falvey couldn’t control ownership’s tightening of the purse strings. But, it’s clear that misalignment was a clear factor that took this deal across the finish line. If only the Twins had actual roster flexibility rather than theoretical, things could have gone differently.
For all of these reasons, the front office determined that they just wouldn’t be able to build a reliably competitive team while the Pohlads and Correa coexisted in the same city.
It’s too bad, really, as this is yet another case of what could have been. Thanks, Pohlads.