The St. Louis Cardinals (56-56) visit the San Diego Padres (61-50) Sunday in the finale of their 3-game series. First pitch from Petco Park is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Cardinals vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 3-3

The Cardinals are in fourth place in the NL Central, 11 games behind the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers and 5 1/2 games out of a Wild Card spot. They have lost 5 of their last 7 games, but did even this series with the Padres with an 8-5 win on Saturday after a 4-1 loss Friday. They overcame a 4-0 deficit by scoring 4 runs in the fourth inning and 2 more in the fifth to take the lead. C Pedro Pages’ 3-run homer tied the game and SS Masyn Wynn hit a 2-run double to give the Cardinals the lead in the fifth.

The Padres are 3 games behind the LA Dodgers for the NL West lead, and currently in the third Wild Card spot. They had a 6-game winning streak snapped with the loss on Saturday. SP Randy Vasquez took the loss, allowing 5 runs on 8 hits, striking out 3 in 4 innings.

Cardinals at Padres projected starters

RHP Andre Pallante vs. RHP Dylan Cease

Pallante (6-7, 4.62 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 through 117 innings.

Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 7-1 home win Monday over the Miami MarlinsCardinals are 1-5 in his last 6 startsCareer vs. Padres: 2-0, 2.70 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 in 6 appearances (1 start)2025 road splits: 2-4, 4.82 ERA (61 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 11 starts

Cease (3-10, 4.79 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 through 118 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 9 K in 7-6 home win Monday over the New York MetsHas allowed 3 or more runs in 5 of his last 6 startsCareer vs. Cardinals: 0-0, 7.84 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 2.13 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 in 2 starts2025 home splits: 3-3, 3.99 ERA (56 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 in 10 starts

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Cardinals at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:53 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Padres -180 (bet $180 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-145) | Padres -1.5 (+120)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)Cardinals at Padres picks and predictionsPrediction

Padres 6, Cardinals 4

The Cardinals are 24-32 on the road and 28-33 against teams above .500, like the Padres. They have lost 5 of Pallante’s last 6 starts, and prior to his last start, he had allowed 5-plus runs his previous 3 outings.

The Padres are 35-19 at Petco Park and have won 7 of their last 9 home games. They have not lost a home series since dropping 2 of 3 games to the Dodgers June 6-11.

But you get better value from the run line than the ML.

PASS.

The Cardinals are 23-15 ATS as road underdogs, but their last 10 losses have all been by 2 or more runs. Seven of the Padres’ last 9 wins have been by 2 or more runs. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 wins.

BET PADRES -1.5 (+120).

Half of the 6 meetings this season have had totals higher than 8 and the other half below it.

Six of Cease’s last 9 starts have reached at least 8 total runs.

BET OVER 8 (-120).

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