PHOENIX — Fernando Tatis Jr.’s better angels are winning.
“I’m facing my demons,” Tatis said with a laugh. “… Sometimes I get out there and say, ‘(Forget) it.’ And I try to make something happen, but then I say, ‘Nah, it’s not working that way.’”
What he meant is that sometimes he wants to hit home runs. Scratch that. He always wants to hit home runs.
But sometimes, Tatis tries to operate outside the confines of reality. And that reality is that pitchers are working against him warily this season, especially over the past couple of months.
So Tatis eventually made the adjustment.
“I just don’t get pitched to when good things can happen,” Tatis said. “There was a point I was trying to make it happen. I saw it didn’t work. So I said, ‘(Forget) it. I’m not going to keep making it harder on myself.’ So I’m just going to take whatever they give me.”
Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres is greeted in the dugout after scoring a run against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fifth inning at Petco Park on Friday, Aug. 1, 2025 in San Diego, CA. (Meg McLaughlin / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
That has meant a surge in his walk rate (a career-high 13.1%), a diminished strikeout rate (a career-low 18.1%) and a sharp decrease in his home run rate (a career-low one every 25 at-bats).
Tatis has already set a career high with 65 walks and has a .364 on-base percentage, 12th best in the National League. His .434 slugging percentage ranks 32nd.
Even after going 0-for-6 with a walk in Tuesday’s 10-5 victory over the Diamondbacks, Tatis has a .408 OBP in 32 games since June 29. That is fifth best in the NL. His .403 slugging percentage in that span ranks 44th.
What is happening has a fairly simple explanation.
“They have a plan,” hitting coach Victor Rodriguez said of opposing teams. “Everybody knows (that) with one swing, he can change a game.”
Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres looks on during the seventh inning against the Texas Rangers at Petco Park on Saturday, July 5, 2025 in San Diego, CA.(Meg McLaughlin / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
So pitchers aren’t giving him that opportunity very often.
Tatis is not seeing as many pitches in the strike zone, and he is swinging at fewer of those outside the zone.
So Tatis is finding a way to get on base via walks and hits. His 22 walks since July 6 are his most ever in a 26-game span, and his .271 batting average over those 26 games is 65 points better than his previous 46 games and 19 points higher than his season average before this stretch.
But opponents have largely muted his danger at the plate.
Tatis’ 51.3% hard-hit rate is down five percentage points from last season. His 49.9% groundball rate is the highest of his career.
The reality is twofold: Tatis is not getting as many chances to do damage on pitches in the heart of the zone, and he is not taking advantage of some of those chances he is getting.
In 2024, for instance, he saw 127 pitches in the heart of the strike zone. He has seen 139 such pitches this season, but over the course of 339 more total pitches. Tatis had an .887 slugging percentage on pitches in the heart of the zone last season; this year, that number is down to .449.
The Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. (Meg McLaughlin / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
The thing to focus on, perhaps, is that it could be much worse. It was, in fact, worse for nearly two months. Tatis hit .206/.312/.360 from May 2 through June 27. He did not reach base in 12 of those 50 games.
Tatis has been on base at least once in all but three of the past 33 games. And even after making six outs in seven plate appearances on Tuesday, he has a .401 on-base percentage in that span.
“The way he is taking the walks is not by taking walks,” Rodriguez said. “It’s because he is aggressive and on time and seeing the ball well. I’d rather see that than him chasing because he’s looking for power.”
Tatis’ 24.2% chase rate is a career low. It is 22.6% since June 28.
Now, the Padres could use some more slug. They rank second-to-last in the major leagues in home runs (96) and 25th of 30 in slugging percentage (.381).
San Diego Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. smiles in the dugout during the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park on Tuesday, June 10, 2025 in San Diego, CA. (Meg McLaughlin / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
But this version of Tatis has been a winning version.
He is not the only reason, of course, but the Padres are 19-14 since June 28 heading into Wednesday’s game, the beginning of this 33-game stretch in which he has a .401 OBP and two home runs. They were 19-23 in the 42 games before that, while he had an OBP that was 91 points lower but hit six home runs.
“His swing decisions are elite,” manager Mike Shildt said. “I mean, they’re the best on our team and have been for whatever period of time you want to look at. Listen, if he was a one-dimensional player that was only a home run guy, we wouldn’t celebrate as much. (He could) be the all-or-nothing, more modern version (of a) player. But when you’ve got the skill set he’s got to impact the game and the instincts on the bases that he has, and you’re on the base at a .420 clip, heck, that’s a no-brainer.”
Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres walks back to the dugout during the ninth inning during the tenth inning against the Texas Rangers at Petco Park on Friday, July 4, 2025 in San Diego, CA. (Meg McLaughlin / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
The hope is that Tatis’ discipline will bring pitchers back into the zone more often — and that he will capitalize.
But that might not happen.
“That’s a dangerous human being up there,” Shildt said. “He’s just being more selective. Do I think people are going to change and challenge him more in the zone? Either way, we win.”
Tatis acknowledges that he continues to search for the right balance of aggression and selectivity. For now, a player who has notoriously allowed his desire to do damage get the better of him is doing what he can.
“It will definitely come back around,” Tatis said of the slug. “But I’m just a baseball player. Anything on the field, I can make it happen.”
Originally Published: August 6, 2025 at 1:00 PM PDT