I love being wrong.

When the Guardians emerged from their 9-16 June by finishing a 10-game losing streak to start July, I was confident it was time to focus on 2026 and beyond. I felt this way, primarily, because the Guardians had only three good hitters – Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan and Kyle Manzardo, and they had little help coming from Columbus with Chase DeLauter and Juan Brito hurt. I thought it make sense to explore potential Emmanuel Clase and Steven Kwan trades (no pressure to move them, just do it if the return was overwhelming), and I supported trading Shane Bieber if no extension with him was in the offing. I also thought, after a disappointingly close series in which the Tigers swept the Guardians at home, it was time for the front office to assume that the Central Division was Detroits.

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My how things change in a month.

The Guardians have gone 19-7 since the 10-game losing streak. Yes, they have certainly had a favorable schedule, but that record includes sweeps of the Houston Astros and New York Mets, both very good teams. It also has seen the Guardians overcome one of the biggest punches to the gut a team can sustain in losing their elite closer, Emmanuel Clase, to a betting investigation – for who knows how long? While ridiculous Twitter “reporters” predicted more Guardians’ pitchers would be revealed to be involved, the team buckled down and perservered.

And, here we are, the morning of August 7th, 2025, and the Guardians are only 1.5 games behind the New York Yankees (!) for the third wildcard and, miraculously, only SIX games back of the Tigers for the Central (the Tigers have gone 9-16 in the past month… sound familiar?).

I can’t shut off my mind telling me that the Guardians are not going to make a playoff run with this offense as it is. However, you just need to get in the dance to have a chance. They certainly have hitters (Jose, Kwan, Fry, Manzardo, Arias, heck, ROCCHIO) who have shown the ability to carry the team in a short series. They are also giving CJ Kayfus a chance to provide more than the less-than-Myles-Straw offensive production they’ve been getting from Nolan Jones. And, there’s an outside chance the team could get a boost from late-season debuts from the aforementioned DeLauter and Brito, hamate and hamstring obliging.

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Since the 10-game losing streak, here is the Guardians’ offensive leaderboard:
Jose Ramirez 172 wRC+
Kyle Manzardo 172 wRC+
Daniel Schneemann 150 wRC+
Gabriel Arias 117 wRC+
Brayan Rocchio 117 wRC+
Bo Naylor 106 wRC+
David Fry 104 wRC+
Angel Martinez 103 wRC+

Aside from batting averages on balls in play of .372 from Schneemann and .360 from Rocchio, nothing about these numbers seems particularly lucky for these hitters. Certainly, we can expect some regression, and fear that Arias and Naylor will re-enter a valley in their careers of offensive peaks and valleys. But, those two are still young enough players where it is possible they have finally established themsleves as 90-100 wRC+ hitters, which would be huge for the Guardians’ lineup. Yes, they still have a middle-of-the-order problem with neither Nolan Jones nor Carlos Santana able to provide anything against RHP. Will Kayfus help there? Or perhaps a miraculous resurrection of DeLauter or Brito to the bigs? The Guardians have at least given themselves a shot at having a top 15 offense to end the season, even as it is still fair to wonder how this hitting will sustain against elite pitching they would face in a playoff appearance.

Pitching has been the key, of course, especially with Gavin Williams (0.82 ERA since July 7th) pitching like an ace and Slade Cecconi (3.93 ERA) and Logan Allen (3.94) backing him up. It’s hard not to feel a little wistful about a potential Bieber debut to really raise the level of this rotation, but for now we’ll focus on Tanner Bibee’s 3.70 xFIP and Joey Cantillo 3.22 xFIP during this time period. Bibee needs to surrender his apparent compulsion to throw his fastball way too often, and the home runs he’s giving up should subside. Vogt probably needs to have a quicker hook with Cantillo, but his last start was encouraging; after a tough first inning, he went five and two-thirds and finished strong. A revival of good Bibee and a mini-breakout from Cantillo would really help sustain this team’s late surge.

The bullpen deserves their flowers, as well, admirably stepping up in the absence of Clase. Since July 7th, not a single member of the pen has an ERA under 4. This tough group has been led by Jacob Junis 0.82 ERA, Erik Sabrowski 0.93, Nic Enright 1.93, Cade Smith 1.98, Kolby Allard 2.53, Matt Festa 3.27 and Hunter Gaddis 3.94 (Carlos Hernandez doesn’t quite count, yet). I feel pride every time I watch this group navigate a lineup and lead us to proclaim “Emmanuel Clase? Who needs Emmanuel Clase?” But, I know there will be bumps in the road. I do feel confident that Cantillo can help if needed in the pen, in case of injury, with Parker Messick filling his spot.

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I am so happy that it looks like we are going to get a fun end to this season, whether it ends in a playoff berth or not. I LOVE that I am looking so wrong on a variety of things: 1. I didn’t think Arias should get another shot out of Spring Training, 2. I thought Logan Allen wasn’t a major league starter, 3. I proclaimed multiple times that this was a bad baseball team, a team that because of its schedule might finish over .500, but whose run differential would indicate they were significantly worse than that. No one loves looking like an idiot more than me when it means that the Guardians are winning baseball games. Keep it up, guys. I will be rooting for you to surpass expectations and do unprecedented things the whole way.