Tiebreakers, AL West chances and more

Baseball’s trade deadline has passed. The dog days of summer are, if not already upon the league, quite near. This can all mean only one thing.

It’s time for a lesson in Texas Rangers Playoff Math.

The Rangers have a 34.9% chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, after a series win vs. the New York Yankees. Those are the seventh-best odds in an American League field that will send six teams to the postseason.

So, yes, there’s a chance. The path toward it is not necessarily straightforward, though, and may require a combination of both internal and external movement.

Rangers

Let’s break it all down.

The tiebreaker conundrum

The Rangers have a 27.6% chance to clinch a wild card berth, per FanGraphs, which is as much a reflection of their own mettle as it is the crowded field that they’ll need to compete against.

Texas was one and a half games behind the Yankees for the third wild card spot Thursday afternoon and three games back of the Seattle Mariners in second.

The Mariners (who are 10-3 against the Rangers this season) and the Yankees (who are 4-2 against the Rangers this season) both hold the head-to-head tiebreaker and would clinch any playoff spot over Texas if the two teams were tied with each other. The Rangers are four games back of the wild card-leading Boston Red Sox and would clinch a berth over them thanks to their 4-2 head-to-head record this season. Each of those three seasons series have already been completed.

It’s the same reason why the Houston Astros won the AL West over the Rangers two seasons ago despite identical records. The Astros won that regular season series 9-4, clinched a division title and extended a lengthy Rangers road trip to start the playoffs.

That method worked (quite well) for the Rangers once. History suggests it’s best for teams to control their own destinies. That brings us to the business that the Rangers can handle on their own.

The destiny they can control

Each win, as members of the Rangers are quick to state, is important given where the club stands. That’s true, but, two things can be accurate at the same time.

Some wins, against some teams, do matter more.

Specifically the Cleveland Guardians and, to a lesser extent, the Kansas City Royals.

The Guardians are also one and a half games back of the third wild card berth but have a hundredth of a percent better win percentage than the Rangers have. More importantly: The two teams have not yet played each other this season and will meet six times, starting with a three-game series at Globe Life Field on Aug. 22, before the season concludes.

It would behoove the Rangers to win at least four of those six contests. In the case of a tie between the Rangers and Guardians — both for a wild card spot and their head-to-head record — the club with the better record within their own division advances. The Rangers are 18-22 against AL West teams with 12 games left to play against divisional foes. The Guardians are 20-12 against AL Central teams with 17 left to play.

The Royals, who are directly behind the Rangers in the wild card standings and two and a half games back of them, present less of a threat. Still, though, the Royals have won all three games they’ve played against the Rangers this season. Texas would need to sweep a four-game series in Kansas City on its next road trip to secure that tiebreaker.

But, wait, there’s more that the Rangers can accomplish under their own power to earn a postseason berth.

It’s only easier said than done.

The AL West race is not over

The Rangers have a 7.3% chance to win the AL West, currently hold the head-to-head advantage (four wins to three losses) and have six more games scheduled against the Astros to both secure the tiebreaker, if necessary, or simply chase Houston down and knock them down the old-fashioned way.

Simple enough, right?

It’s theoretically less complicated than wild card tiebreaker math and it leaves the Rangers enough ammunition — both with their 46 games remaining to play this season and multiple series against the Astros — to erase the 4 1/2-game deficit they currently trail Houston by for the division lead.

The issue that the Rangers will face, though, may exist more within the 40 remaining games against everyone else than the six games left to play against the Astros.

The Rangers have the third-toughest strength of schedule leaguewide left to play, per Tankathon, with 15 games scheduled against first-place teams including three vs. the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies this weekend at Globe Life Field. The Astros, meanwhile, have the sixth-easiest strength of schedule in their next 47 games.

That doesn’t favor the Rangers and it will place a premium on the nine games they have left to play against teams like the fire sale Minnesota Twins and Arizona Diamondbacks.

They do, however, have a chance.

Former Rangers pitcher John Burkett reminisced on his win in Texas’ first playoff game