While 2025 has been an incredibly tough year for the Orioles and Birdland, no one’s suffered quite as much as Grayson Rodriguez. With the recent news that G-Rod needs elbow surgery and will officially miss all of the 2025 season, the flame-throwing Texan has become the embodiment of the very worst aspect of this year’s campaign.
For most of the Orioles (and us fans), this season has been fraught with disappointment, as expectations of another playoff berth were dashed by an abysmal first two months of the season, which in turn led the recent trades of many beloved players. For Rodriguez—a pitcher once thought to be in line to replace Corbin Burnes atop the O’s rotation—it’s not just been a disappointing year, but one completely lost due to injury.
It’s worth emphasizing that this elbow surgery is not anything close to the elbow surgeries undergone by the likes of Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells and Félix Bautista. It’s not Tommy John, but rather an elbow debridement. As the Baltimore Sun explained in its coverage of the injury, the surgery will clean up bone spurs in Rodriguez’ elbow that could cause future damage. It’s slightly invasive preventative maintenance that will, hopefully, prevent him from ever needing reconstruction.
The concern should not be about the surgery itself, but the fact that the elbow surgery is the latest entry on a growing list of Rodriguez’ arm/shoulder problems. Just in the last 12 months, G-Rod has had five different injury concerns affecting his lat/shoulder, tricep and elbow. And that doesn’t count the shoulder injury that landed him on the IL early last season, nor the lat injury that cost him most of the 2022 season and delayed his arrival in Baltimore.
Perhaps a year off from pitching in the majors was what Rodriguez needed to reset a body that’s seemingly never been fully healthy as a big leaguer. During a recent appearance on the Foul Territory podcast, Rodriguez stated that the elbow problems the surgery will address are something that’s been bothering him for 3-4 years. The big right-hander made similar statements back in March regarding the tricep problem that sidelined him in Spring Training. And then there’s the lat injury that seems to flare up once a year since 2022.
If the year away from Baltimore means that Rodriguez is fully back in the saddle in 2026 and able to play his best baseball, this season was a worthwhile exercise in enduring disappointment and growing through that suffering. But can a year of rest and recuperation (and surgery) really give Rodriguez a medical clean slate going forward?
Rodriguez’ combination of plus stuff and less-than-ideal mechanics draws unfavorable comparisons to former Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg. The No.1 overall pick from the 2009 Draft and 2019 World Series MVP had the same flat, pronated pitching delivery that we see from G-Rod. That delivery delivered three All-Star appearances and a World Series title for the Nats ace. It also contributed to the same injuries we currently see from Rodriguez (lat strains, shoulder inflammation, elbow impingements) and saw Strasburg undergo Tommy John surgery early in his career.
The best-case scenario is that Rodriguez has used his extensive rehab time to not only resolve the lingering injuries but also tweak the parts of his mechanics that cause these recurring injuries. The worst-case scenario is one where his mechanics are his mechanics, and this year spent clearing his backlog of injuries will ultimately not matter much when those same mechanics produce more injuries in the future.
Regardless of where G-Rod’s health is come next spring training (and then throughout 2026), his failure to return to the mound in 2025 needs to inform how the front office approaches the starting rotation this offseason. A common belief is that Mike Elias (assuming he’s still around come November) will target a high-end starter to complement Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers atop the Orioles rotation. In this scenario, Rodriguez would be competing with Dean Kremer and others for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation.
A full-healthy Grayson Rodriguez as your No. 4 starter is a marked improvement on this season’s rotation. More than that, it’d be a significant building block in making Baltimore’s rotation one of the best in the AL. This season, the O’s fourth-best starter was Charlie Morton—who accomplished that despite one of the worst starts to a season we’ve ever seen. Going from a fourth starter with a negative WAR to a pitcher capable of putting up 2+ WAR in a full season would be a massive upgrade to this staff before bringing in any outside additions.
However, the former No. 1 pitching prospect in baseball should now be seen as someone lightly penciled into next year’s rotation instead of written in pen. The prudent thing for Elias & Co. to do this winter would be to target multiple guys who can replicate/surpass a healthy G-Rod’s impact on the rotation (i.e. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Freddy Peralta, etc.).
All Orioles fans should want Grayson Rodriguez to hold down a prominent role on the 2026 squad. He still possesses more upside than any pitcher in the O’s organization, even if injuries have largely robbed him of the opportunity to further his development. And yet, the injury history cannot be ignored in the same way the front office seemingly ignores Tyler O’Neill’s medical records. Having Grayson Rodriguez as part of your plan for 2026 is fine. But until further notice, he shouldn’t be a major part of the plan’s foundation.