“Is Adley just an average player now, at best?” asked a Reddit forum back in April.

Ah, Reddit. The source of all wisdom. No but really, with a .197 average and six home runs over 80 games stretching back to 2024, our catcher was giving fans plenty of reason to ask. Rutschman, the post added, still resembled “2024 Adley,” a hitter with “little power and a pronounced upper cut as compared to when he first came up” and who as a backstop struggled to hold runners from stealing, 24th in all of MLB in throwing out runners stealing bases.

Cut to the present, as we head into the second week in August. How does that gloomy assessment look? Answer: like it was correct, then, and not quite as clear now.

Adley started the season apparently healthy, but he only hit .205 with five home runs and seven doubles in 53 games in April/May. Then he started turning a corner in June. He hit .309, slugging .509 and OPS’d .890 that month while putting up five extra-base hits in just 15 games. Alas, an oblique injury took him out of the lineup at the worst time, and he’d miss a month of play between June 19 and July 28, a crucial time that took the Orioles out of contention and cemented their status as sellers.

In the nine games since he’s been reactivated, he’s averaging .314, with a .514 slugging, and OPS’ing .856. He doesn’t have a July homer, but he’s hit seven doubles.

Overall, a weird season, the first in his young career of not being named an All-Star—and frankly, his spring numbers warranted it.

What to make of Rutschman now? That Redditer was correct that expectations for the 2019 1-1 pick have always been sky-high, yet most of his accomplishments at the plate and on defense predated the 2024 season.

In his 2022 rookie season, Rutschman hit .254 with an .807 OPS and 48 extra-base hits in 113 games. He was named an All-Star for the first of two consecutive years. This was impressive because he, like a lot of players, really struggled when he was first introduced to the league, hitting just .179 with one double in his first month. But in the second half, he posted a .275 average and an .861 OPS.

In 2023, Rutschman hit .277 with an .809 OPS, 20 homers and 31 doubles in 154 games. Except for a bad June (.222 BA and .660 OPS), the switch-hitting catcher was consistent, posting an average of .269 or better each month, including a .292 average and .922 OPS in September/October. One reason for worry: his defense was down, in both defensive runs saved (+18 DRS in ‘22 but just +2 in ‘23) and his caught stealing declined to league average (22%) from a high of 31% his rookie year.

The 2024 season was the one that had tongues wagging over a potential downturn. After hitting .275 with a .780 OPS in the first half, Rutschman barely hit for power in a depressing end to the season, OPS’ing just .585 with three home runs and nine doubles in 58 games. That included a .132 average and .482 OPS in July.

Our own Mark Brown seemed to think health was a factor, even if the team denied it. Rutschman’s Statcast measureables (bat speed, hard-hit rate, arm strength, foot speed, even walk rate) took a tumble last season, indicating something wasn’t right physically. Plus his slump seemed to start when he took a foul ball of his throwing hand, and the DH/C’s batting average was 60 points higher when he wasn’t behind the plate, suggesting wear and tear. On the other hand, as Mark pointed out, Rutschman’s markedly better splits hitting as a righty suggested that a sore right hand might not be it.

Another potential issue is approach. Recall that the narrative with young Adley was always his incredibly precocious zone awareness and plate discipline. He walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances in the Minors and struck out in just 16.6% of them. In 2022 and 2023, he walked at a plus-13% clip. In 2023, he got through the first two months of the season with an incredible .411 OBP.

In 2024, Rutschman’s power jumped early, but so did his chase rate. Reporters suggested that the Orioles were coaching him to be more aggressive at the plate, and take fewer pitches. Early in the season he had a 5.4% walk rate. He also saw slightly fewer pitches per AB.

The Rutschman of 2025 seems to have settled down from these extremes, although his numbers overall still aren’t what they were in ’22. His walk rate is back to a very good 10.8% and he’s stopped swinging so much: his chase rate is now back down to the low-20s, putting him in the 89th percentile of patient hitters, where it belongs. He’s got a plus-.800 OPS in each month since the end of May, and the doubles are coming back.

Interestingly, the wear & tear explanation seems borne out by the fact that he should be well-rested now, having missed time, and reliably, his catcher/DH splits have shrunk, with barely a ten-point different in average between them. He is still hitting way better as a righty, though, with a .291/.384/.407/.791 line, compared to a .215/.2993/.382/.675 mark from the left side.

As for his defense, it isn’t all bad news, and here, too, we have clues that Rutschman was hurt in ‘24. That was the first and only season his pitch-framing became a liability, as well as his throwing. But both numbers have jumped back up. This year, Rutschman ranks above average in pitch-framing, his pop-time is also better than average, and he continues to be one of the league’s best blockers. The only area where a sustained downturn can be seen is throwing. Statcast considered him a +10 run value arm in 2022, a -1 in 2024, and a +1 now.

Then there’s Adley’s value, period. So far this season, Adley has a 1.8 WAR, down from his 5.4 and 4.3 marks in 2022 and 2023. But it’s also clear that what he does is different. Even in his down year last season, he was worth 3.4 WAR. And considering he’s on track to post three straight months of plus-.300 hitting and a plus .824 OBP, he might be close to clearing those doubts about his 2024 second half. Worth keeping an eye on. At any rate, it continues to be true that, “As Adley goes, this team goes.”