May 20, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier (53) talks with relief pitcher Josh Hader (71) prior to the game against the Los Angeles Angels at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images
The Astros head their way through choppy waters in the playoff race. At the same time, the Astros try to integrate the returning injured starting pitchers without giving up any wins as the pitchers work through their rust and new ligaments.
Spencer’s Arrighetti’s recent post-injury start provides an example of the risks. He allowed 11 hits 1 walk, and 3 runs in 3.2 innings, which isn’t optimal to say the least. But it’s not totally unexpected when a pitcher returns from a serious injury spanning several months. Arrighetti’s 2025 ERA now stands at 7.43. But his x-ERA is 3.77, indicating that he also faced some bad luck. The Astros potentially have three more pitchers who underwent surgery returning to the rotation. Each one will provide the same kind of risk to winning games, at least initially, at a time when every win is precious to the team.
Since the Mariners are hot on the Astros’ heels, let’s look at how the Fangraphs playoff odds for both teams have moved over the last week and a half.
Division Odds / Bye Odds / Playoff Odds
July 28: Astros 57% / 39% / 89%
August 7: Astros 50% / 29% / 85%
July 28 Mariners 27% / 16% / 74%
August 7: Mariners 43% / 23% / 85%
The Astros’ division odds are practically 50-50, which is a decline from the high 50’s. But the biggest change is in the Mariners’ odds. Their division odds are no longer remote, but better described as just below the Astros’ division odds. But teams have similar odds of getting a bye i n the playoffs and reasonably similar high odds of making the playoffs.
The three remaining starting pitchers who have been pitching rehab games: Cristian Javier; Luis Garcia; and J.P. France. The MLB rules do not allow them to pitch for an unlimited time in rehab starts at the minor league level. Pitchers generally are allowed 30 days for rehab start, with the team facing a decision to put them on the active roster at the completion of their time. It’s not clear what those exact dates are for each of the three pitchers. But it is likely that Javier’s rehab limit ends this week. Garcia’s rehab starts should be ending soon, perhaps this weekend. France’s final rehab date is sometime in late August.
Espada has stated that Javier’s next start is likely to be in the major leagues. Chandler Rome’s Athletics article discusses the risk of bringing up the injured pitchers. In discussing the difference between MLB starts and rehab starts, Arrighetti told Rome that the game planning doesn’t occur in the rehab games.
“I wouldn’t call it ‘rusty’ necessarily, just growing pains of getting back out on the mound,” Arrighetti said. “Obviously, that was only my fourth game since getting hurt. Rehab starts are good for building stuff up but not necessarily for putting a game plan together … I wouldn’t call it rust, just more of a growing pain thing.”
The Astros may need to redouble the pitch game planning for the returning starters—tasks which include coaches, analysts, and catchers in addition to the pitchers.
Javier’s final rehab start was in Sacramento, and he struggled with command, allowing 4 walks. Javier required 77 pitches to get through 3.2 innings. 55% of the pitches were strikes. (That was somewhat of an improvement over his previous rehab start, when he threw 50% strikes.) The bottom line of 4 walks and 2 hits in 3.2 innings wasn’t very efficient. I doubt that the Astros can rely on Javier to throw more than 4 innings when his first ML start occurs.
Given the shortened innings expected for Javier perhaps the Astros should consider using the Okert opener role, similar to the approach taken in rookie A.J. Blubaugh start this week. If Steven Okert pitches the first two innings, this decreases the pressure on Javier to pitch an extended number of innings. Furthermore, this discourages the opposing team from loading the starting lineup against Javier with LHBs, since those hitters will first have to face the LHP Okert. At best, the opposing team will be forced to begin pinch hitting batters in the 3d inning.
Is Garcia ready to appear in the majors? After his August 1 start, Garcia said:
“I’m feeling a little weird, though,” Garcia said of his delivery. “I think I’m not moving quite as explosively as I was in the past. But I’m just trying to figure it out and everything will be better with time.”,
Garcia’s velocity topped out at 92.7 mph, below his normal average velocity of 94 mph. He threw 49 pitches in 2.2 innings, and gave up 3 runs, 3 hits, 2 walks, and 1 HR, going up against division rival Mariners’ prospects. Garcia said he hoped to continue the rehab starts until he feels healthy enough to pitch at the ML level.
But Garcia enjoyed a much better rehab outing yesterday. His line: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. That is much better and should be encouraging that Garcia is nearing readiness to join the big league team.
This brings up an additional question. How will the 26 man active roster incorporate Arrighetti, Javier, and Garcia without shorting the bullpen capability? If the returning pitchers are not capable of pitching 5 or 6 innings per start in these initial games, this will apply pressure on the bullpen. Probably at least one of Colton Gordon or Jason Alexander and perhaps a relief pitcher would be optioned to AAA. This could weaken the number of pitchers in the bullpen in the event the pen has to cover 6 or more innings.
Another option might be tandem start Arrighetti and Javier, for example. The concept of the returning starters sharing starts for awhile is interesting in theory, but could be risky if both ends of the tandem don’t throw enough strikes. In any event, it will be interesting to see how the Astros try to manage this transition in the rotation.