Texas’ struggles vs. contenders and more

ARLINGTON — The Texas Rangers, in true 2025 fashion, have taken us for a ride.

They won six consecutive games from July 21-27 to push themselves to a season-high six games over .500 and to within a theoretical (though not entirely legitimate) tie for the American League’s third Wild Card spot.

They have gone 4-9 since, are now within a game of a .500 record (60-59) and are closer to the fire sale Minnesota Twins (56-61) than they are to the Wild Card-leading Seattle Mariners (66-53).

Rangers

Plenty can happen in a week’s time.

Let’s talk about it.

To be the best, you’ve got to beat the best

There is no shortage of metrics that one could point towards to best surmise the causes of a frustration-laden Rangers season. Please, trust us, we’ve gone through them all.

So let’s simplify it. We’ll work backwards to do so.

What is the ultimate goal of this season? A World Series.

What do teams need to do in order to win a World Series? Win in the playoffs.

What do teams needs to do to win in the playoffs? Beat good teams.

Yeah, well, about that.

The Rangers have simply underperformed against baseball’s contenders. Their .412 win percentage vs. teams with a .500 or better record is tied for the eighth-worst in the league. Their .621 OPS against those teams and their 196 runs scored both rank dead last.

Now, you may ask, what exactly is the threshold for this? How many teams actually thrive against winners? Great question. Only nine teams have a .500 record or better against teams with one.

There are six teams that should be of most concern to the Rangers with 43 games left to play: the one in front of the American League West (the Houston Astros), the three currently seated in the Wild Card race (the Boston Red Sox, the New York Yankees and the Seattle Mariners), the one directly ahead of them on the outside looking in (the Cleveland Guardians) and the one on their tail (the Kansas City Royals).

The Guardians are the only team among that group that’s performed worse against teams with a .500 or better record while the Mariners (.554, third-best), the Astros (.525, fourth-best) and the Red Sox (.500, eighth-best) have had some of the most success leaguewide.

Let’s make matters worse. The Rangers have the fourth-hardest strength of schedule remaining in baseball. Their opponents to finish the season have a combined win percentage of .513. The group of teams that stand between Texas and a potential postseason berth is the one that they’ve had the most struggles with against this season.

An unstoppable staff vs. an immovable offense

Let’s dive further into the postseason discussion while we’re here. This is the most direct way we can say this: The Rangers, with a .675 OPS that ranks third-worst in baseball, do not meet the statistical eye test of a playoff team.

Zero teams in the Wild Card era (since 1995) have reached the postseason with a .675 OPS or worse in the regular season. The last team to do so was the 1988 Los Angeles Dodgers who, despite a 94-67 record, posted a .657 OPS.

Now, as has been the case this season, their league-best 3.28 ERA represents a saving grace. Only five teams in the Wild Card era have yielded a 3.28 ERA or better and missed the playoffs. The 2011 San Francisco Giants — who posted a 3.21 ERA and were managed by Bruce Bochy — were one of the five.

Their offense that season? A .671 OPS, the fourth-worst in baseball.

Great pitching can keep them in the race. A consistent offense can give them a real shot.

They’ll get defensive

This won’t all be doom and gloom. The Rangers are simply too good at two of baseball’s big three factors — pitching and defense — to gloss over entirely.

We’ve talked a decent deal about the pitchers this year.

Let’s dive into the defense.

The Rangers lead baseball with a .991 fielding percentage this season. They’ve made the fewest errors (38), turned the fifth-most double plays (93) and their 20 outs above average are the second-most in the American League.

Sunday’s loss to the Philadelphia Phillies showed why. Center fielder Wyatt Langford’s impressive run-and-catch in the second inning — which required him to cover 75 feet from center to right field and snag a J.T. Realmuto line drive that carried a .450 expected batting average — was one of the club’s single-best defensive plays this season. It had a catch probability of 45% according to StatCast. He had to avoid right fielder Adolis García — who also tried to make a play on the ball — for the catch.

“I’ll be honest,” Bochy said, “I couldn’t tell who caught the ball. I got blocked out when Doli reached up for it, I thought he caught it. What a catch by Wyatt, because I’m sure he was distracted there by Doli. He stayed with it. He’s done a really nice job in center field.”

Hey, he’s recognized

There’s a disclaimer here: Gambling odds are far from the be-all, end-all to determine a player’s value or their legitimate chances to win certain awards and accolades.

It can, however, serve as a litmus test to understand where they stand.

Nathan Eovaldi, the Rangers right-hander in the midst of a historically good season, has earned national recognition in that sense. He now has the third-best odds to win the American League Cy Young award at +1800 according to DraftKings. Only Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal (-200) and Boston Red Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet (+150) rank above him.

Eovaldi, 35, has a 1.38 ERA that would lead baseball if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify. If he averages six innings in each of his next four starts, though, he will qualify after his Aug. 27 start vs. the Los Angels Angels.

OK, but, seriously, the playoffs

We’ve sort of reached the stage of the season where the playoffs — and whether or not the Rangers can get there — are the premier priority above all else.

The Rangers have a 22.5% chance to qualify for the playoffs according to FanGraphs. It has not been that low since July 20 when FanGraphs gave them just a 19.4% chance to make it. It’s been as high as 71.2% (on April 6) and as low as 12.7% (on July 9).

It’s a roller coaster.

Try to enjoy the ride.

Ranking Nathan Eovaldi’s competition as Rangers’ ace chases the AL Cy Young Award