When last the San Francisco Giants took on the San Diego Padres, they were just ten days away from acquiring slugger Rafael Devers, a move that was supposed to create separation between the Giants and the Padres/Diamondbacks/Rockies segment of the division if not heated competition between themselves and the Padres & Diamondbacks, but it didn’t work out that way. The Giants are marooned in mediocrity with the Diamondbacks while the Padres have taken off and our now duking it out with the Dodgers for the top of the division. It’s an all too familiar turn of events that really gives this series an anticlimactic feeling.

The Giants’ pre-Devers days were positive! Through June 15th, they were 41-31 (.569) on pace to go 88-74 with a 64.4% chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs playoff odds calculation. The Padres, meanwhile, were 39-31 (.557) on pace for an 85-77 record and holding a 42.5% chance of landing a postseason slot. Since then, the Giants have gotten much, much worse and the Padres have either sustained their success or gotten better.

Giants: 18-28 (.391) | 81-81 pace | Playoff odds: 8.2% (source: MLB Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Baseball)

Padres: 27-21 (.563) | 90-72 pace | Playoff odds: 95.3%

Rather than sit back and enjoy the Giants’ collapse, the Padres went out and made five deals at the trade deadline, acquiring a pair of A’s (All-Star closer Mason Miller and Giants killer LHP J.P. Sears), a pair of O’s (1B/DH Ryan O’Hearn and OF Ramon Laureano), a pair of Brewers (LHP Nestor Cortes and SS prospect Jorge Quintana), a Royal (catcher Freddy Fermin), and a Blue Jay (IF Will Wagner). They paid a steep price (the #3 overall prospect in MLB, for one), but in AJ Preller’s mind, the juice is worth the squeeze.

Maybe someday the Giants will find themselves in that position of going for it, but Buster Posey and Zack Minasian’s 100% defensible — and, most importantly, correct — decision to punt the season only illustrates the gulf between these two franchises that has persisted since 2022. The Padres have won four of the last five season series versus the Giants including three straight, so expect the trend to continue here in 2025.

San Diego has six All-Stars from the 2025 squad: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, previous closer Robert Suarez, previous setup man Jason Adam, and lefty reliever Adrian Morejon. The newly acquired Ryan O’Hearn was an AL All-Star for Baltimore, so it’s up to you if you want to count him (I do). Yet, despite that firepower, their offensive is ranked only 14th in MLB thanks to a 100 wRC+. They have hit the second-fewest home runs in the sport, their 99 total trailing only the Pirates (83) — the Giants are just three spots behind them though with 112. They have not hit for power this season.

They excel at pitching. By fWAR, they have the fourth-most valuable pitching staff in MLB (14.3 fWAR) behind the Phillies (17.3), Astros (16.2), and Rangers (15.4). The caveat here is that they’re considerably worse on the road in this department, with an astonishing 3.17 / 4.11 home/road ERA split. Their road FIP is 19th in MLB, too. They’re also pretty bad at hitting on the road, too, with a 92 wRC+ in the split. They’re just 28-32 on the road this season with a -18 run differential.

But if you think the Padres’ road struggles give the Giants an opening, consider that the Giants have actively worked against the idea that (1) they are a good baseball team and (2) they like playing on their homefield. They’re just 7-17 at Oracle Park since acquiring Rafael Devers. Heliot Ramos hasn’t homered in 28 games, carrying a triple slash of .272/.341/.298 since (129 PA) over that span while playing a worrying brand of baseball alongside the lack of punch. If you give the team some grace and simply look at the numbers since July 1st, then, the lineup looks a little better (with Ramos’s punchless line still worth about 100 wRC+ on top of upticks in performance from Devers, Jung Hoo Lee, and Willy Adames), but the pitching looks worse: a 4.28 ERA (16th in MLB). It hasn’t come together even when individual pieces have picked up. Meanwhile, the Padres seem to have the right mix of complimentary talents to create a real tough team.

Who: San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Monday & Tuesday at 6:45pm PT, Wednesday at 12:45pm PT
National broadcasts: None

Projected starters
Monday: Yu Darvish (RHP 1-3. 6.51 ERA) vs. Logan Webb (RHP 10-8, 3.24 ERA)
Tuesday: Nestor Cortes (LHP 1-4, 7.11 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP 9-5, 2.85 ERA)
Wednesday: Nick Pivetta (RHP 11-4, 2.94 ERA) vs. TBD

Padres: 66-52, 2nd in NL West; Wild Card #2, 2.0 GB NLW

Giants: 59-59, 3rd in NLW; 4.0 GB Wild Card #3, 9.0 GB NLW

SB Nation does not have a native polling tool following the transition to the new publishing platform, so rather than use a third-party tool, I’ll just ask you who you have as your pick to click (batters = 3+ hits in the series, pitchers = a quality start or 2+ appearances with 0 or 1 run allowed).

Padres: If I have to choose between Luis Arraez (career .359/.419/.462 at Oracle Park) and Ryan O’Hearn (4-for-10 against the Giants last season), I’ll stick with Arraez; but if O’Hearn puts one in the cove, I won’t be surprised. Also, if you are hurting for pitching in your fantasy league, we are at the point in the season where it’s prudent to start every rando guy facing the Giants. Nestor Cortes had some prominence as a Yankee, but now he’s floating around the league — he’s still a left-handed pitcher, though, and that sort of starter frustrates the Giants.

Giants: I had a thought that maybe Logan Webb was wearing down a bit, but looking at his “since July 1st” numbers was surprising: in six starts (33.2 IP), a 5.35 ERA (yikes!), but a 3.17 FIP (hey now!) thanks to 38 strikeouts against just 10 walks and 3 home runs allowed. The thing is, Webb’s numbers are, unfortunately, a bit misleading. His last two starts have been against the Pirates, and he’s struck out a total of 21 in 11.2 IP, with just 4 walks and 2 runs allowed (0 home runs). On July 5th, he pitched 6.2 innings, allowed 2 runs (both earned), walked 3, and struck out 6 Athletics. But between this July 5th start and the last two against the Pirates, he had a three-start stretch against Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Mets where he allowed 16 ER in 15.1 IP along with 25 hits (3 of which were home runs). He’s 0-1 with a 3.46 ERA in two starts (13 IP) against the Padres this season, but even this is a bit misleading: 8 shutout innings in June at Oracle Park, preceded by 5 earned in 5 IP in San Diego at the end of April. Because he has pitched better at home, I’ll say he’s due for another great start, even if he’s been struggling against good teams lately.