I regret to inform you that the Texas Rangers’ offense is at it again.
The Rangers have lost their last four games in a row, all at home. In those four games, they’ve scored a total of seven runs. The last game they won, against the Yankees on Tuesday, August 5, they scored just two runs. Their runs scored in each game, over the last five games, is 2-2-1-2-2. Palindromic, at least.
Other than Friday night’s ugly 9-1 loss, the pitching staff more or less did their job and kept the Rangers in those games, allowing 10 runs in those other four games — four runs once, three runs twice, zero runs once. Once would hope that keeping the other team to three-four runs per game would result in a win more often than not.
Do I think that the past five games reveals some hidden truth about the Rangers’ offense, exposes the team’s offensive ability as being more along the lines of what it looked like the first two months of the season, rather than what we’ve seen since early June or so?
Three of the four losses were against lefthanded starters, and the fact that the Rangers struggle against lefties is no surprise to anyone at this point. The Rangers are slashing, as a team, .234/.306/.385 against righthanded pitchers this year, compared to .228/.286/.351 against lefties. MLB as a whole is slashing .248/.319/.408 against righthanders and .241/.309/.388 against lefties, so everyone is struggling against lefties compared to righties, though the Rangers’ are struggling to a greater degree than the league as a whole.
The other loss was against Zack Wheeler, who, while righthanded, is also a legitimately great pitcher. Getting shut down by Zack Wheeler is nothing to be ashamed of. That said, Zack Wheeler was also making his first start after having being pushed back due to shoulder soreness, and his velocity was down a mph or two in that outing compared to his average for the season, so one can say it wasn’t necessary “Zack Wheeler” that the Rangers were facing, but maybe zack wheeler.
The Rangers also performed unusually poorly with runners in scoring position in that five game stretch, going 5 for 37 with RISP, including 0 for 1 on Sunday against Wheeler, and 1 for 16 in the 2-0 win against the Yankees on Tuesday. Performance with runners in scoring position is generally going to track with overall performance, and there’s not really a compelling reason to believe that the 5 for 37 performance with RISP was the result of some fundamental flaw, some fundamental weakness, in the Rangers lineup. 5 for 37 is a .135 batting average, and the Rangers as a team have hit .236 with runners in scoring position this season (compared to .223 with no one on), and one is inclined to chalk up that 5 for 37 stretch as being one of those things that happens from time to time in the course of a season. If the Rangers go, say, 9 for 37 for a .243 average in those four games, rather than 5 for 37, then they likely score a few more runs and pick up a win or two and we’re less foul and despondent about the state of the team, and of the offense in particular.
And of course, this past week saw the Rangers facing two of the better teams in the league — the Yankees and Phillies are projected by Fangraphs to have the second and third best winning percentages over the rest of the season. The Rangers’ strength of schedule the rest of the way, by virtue of these six games against the Yankees and Phillies now being behind them, has gotten easier by several winning percentage points, for what that is worth.
And all that is well and good, and we could chalk this up as a momentary bump in the road, something not to be concerned about, but for the fact that the Rangers played so poorly for such a lengthy stretch earlier this season. We can point to the Rangers’ +59 run differential and say that the team has played better than their record indicates, and we can look at the offense and say the offense is better than the numbers the past five games indicate, and is certainly better than it looked like in the first two months of the year.
Except that the hole that the team dug for itself earlier in the season is big, and the team still hasn’t entirely dug out of that hole. And as a result, their margin for error the rest of the way is razor thin. Losing four in a row at home, while the Red Sox and Mariners and even the Guardians are winning, makes getting a playoff spot even more of an uphill battle. The Rangers are still in contention for a playoff spot, but their chances of making the playoffs are significant worse than they were a week ago.