Who is writing these lineups? I felt like I was shouting at the sky for a long time for this regime to hit Byron Buxton leadoff and to stop trying to reinvent baseball. It’s simple: take your best on-base guy and/or the guy who creates the most chaos, and slot him into the leadoff spot. Maybe I have become an ‘old head’, but when the lineup turns over, teams should fear that. (Admittedly, Buxton had a .304 career OBP entering this season, but his power and speed sure do create chaos.)
With no Buxton available for about two weeks, I found myself shouting at the sky again. Why was Luke Keaschall not hitting leadoff?! In a recent game against Kansas City, the Twins were shut out, and Keaschall was buried in the lineup with no chance for another at-bat in the 9th inning.
It’s a small sample size for Keaschall at the big-league level, but he played (very conveniently) 162 games at the minor-league level. In the minors, he had an on-base percentage of .411 and stole 45 bases. What a clean-up hitter, eh?
Even with the return of Buxton, why not drop the slugging center fielder down to the two hole? Keaschall has already begun to demand respect when he is on first base. When there is a known base stealer on first like Keaschall, pitchers have to defend the running game by throwing more fastballs. Throwing out a great base stealer on a breaking ball is a difficult task. A pitcher is attempting to throw the pitch low to compete against the batter, but then it becomes nearly impossible for the catcher to make the throw in time to second. On the flip side, leaving the breaking ball up to a hitter like Buxton is a recipe for disaster (depending on your perspective). Diving a layer deeper, Buxton is hitting .358 with men in scoring position this year. Not a fun way to start your day as a pitcher.
The game within the game becomes increasingly chaotic with a one-two punch of Keaschall and Buxton. Rocco Baldelli would need to get over the fact that two right-handed batters would abut one another, in order for this to be a reality. To me, though, it feels like an obvious choice. If I had my way, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher, I would lead off with Keaschall and follow with Buxton for the remainder of the season.
Regardless of the Buxton situation, Keaschall was built in a lab to hit leadoff. He’s always likely to hit better for average than for power, and while his many singles and doubles can advance guys who get on in front of him, his high contact rate makes him a risk to hit into lots of double plays if he bats deeper in the lineup than first or second. I, again, find myself shaking my cane at this regime about lineup construction. I can’t fathom a real-life conversation where people are all in agreement to hit Austin Martin or Alan Roden ahead of Keaschall (although, at least, we probably won’t see that now that Buxton has returned). They are both playing great, but the Twins have a potential long-term solution and spark plug for what has been largely a bland offense the last few years.
I know my thinking about the leadoff spot is antiquated, but why does it need to be complex? Hit Keaschall leadoff: He gets on base at an excellent clip and will steal a pile of bases while teams try to slider Buxton to death. Otherwise, to limit stolen bases, Buxton sees an increase in fastballs, which bodes well for his OPS long term. More importantly, a Keaschall-Buxton top of the order would give the team a boost, too: a lot of ways to score runs in quick sequences.