The Philadelphia Phillies are a really, really, ridiculously good baseball team. They’re headed to the playoffs for a reason, and they’ll likely claim the NL East division title along the way.
Their 4-1 comeback victory over the Cincinnati Reds on Monday in the series opener showcased a lot of why they’re so good – timely hitting, sure, but also some pretty relentlessly excellent pitching.
I noted yesterday that the Phils boast the best starting pitching unit in the game, and even Taijuan Walker got in on that success yesterday. So, it’s a bit ripe to dunk on the sputtering Cincinnati offense right after they fumbled against the best pitching in the league, I’ll admit.
However, when Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall chose to define his collective efforts at the trade deadline by saying ‘we feel we improved our pitching, our defense, and our offense,’ it’s hard not to stare directly at the numbers produced since then. And when you do look at the offensive ones in particular, they’re just about as bad as they could be.
Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images
10 games does not a large-enough sample make, but that’s not what the trade deadline is designed to highlight. The trade deadline is designed specifically for teams to try to catch lightning in a bottle for a small sample, and the Reds offense, to date, looks like they simply just got struck.
Their 67 wRC+ since the deadline ranks 29th out of 30 clubs, ahead of only the selling Baltimore Orioles. If you think the park factor in how wRC+ overly penalizes the Reds for not being more offensive in their bandbox home park, I’ll add that their .271 wOBA also ranks 29th (ahead of only Baltimore).
The 6 homers they’ve hit since August 1st is the least by any team in that time. To his credit, Ke’Bryan Hayes did homer in his debut on July 31st, and if you roll the date back for this sample to include games that day, the Reds have 9 total homers – better than only Baltimore, St. Louis, and the San Diego Padres.
The Reds ISO of .109 in August is the second worst in the league. Their 5.7% walk rate this month is, unsurprisingly at this point of the article, also second worst in the league.
Has it been bad luck? Not really, as their .298 BABIP is actually 12th best in that time. Their HR/FB% of just 6.5% in August ranks dead last among all big league clubs, though I guess I’d be more critical of that had they played more than 3 of these 10 games in GABP. Still, when the team for the season ranks second worst in EV50 (the average of the hardest-hit 50 balls), it’s hard not to see that fly balls that don’t clear the fence may well be an unintended feature, not a bug.
There’s still time for this to stabilize, if it’s going to stabilize. Hayes could find a bit more magic than the 32 wRC+ he’s posted in a Reds uniform, though it’s only fair to point out that he’s been by far the better Hayes/Hays on the club in that time – Austin’s at a miserable -22 wRC+ since July 31st. Miguel Andujar could hit his way into Reds lore, and even Elly De La Cruz might remember how to sock a homer again.
Still, as the most crunchy of crunch-times of the season has appeared on the calendar, the Cincinnati Reds offense simply has not. That’s got to change and change soon, or this season is going to slip by the wayside in an inverse way from how 2023 did, too.