With about three weeks to go until many leagues’ fantasy playoffs, it is a great time to take stock of how we did with our teams and how they look with just over one month to go. Just because a player was selected in the high rounds of a draft does not mean he needs to stay on our squads if we have more than half a season of data to show he is overvalued. Just like teams will be turning over their rosters in September this year, we should be mining the moves to find hidden gems for our fantasy baseball rosters.
Overvalued or undervalued in fantasy baseball usually means relative to acquisition cost. We don’t care too much if a free pickup off the waiver wire doesn’t live up to expectations. But if our early-round picks aren’t working out, those are the hard decisions we have to make.
All of our fantasy baseball draft picks and waiver wire additions have value. This piece will look at which of those are overvalued and undervalued right now for the 2025 season.
Undervalued Fantasy Baseball Assets
(Stats are up to date as of August 11th)
Randy Arozarena (OF – SEA)
There are exactly four players in MLB who have at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases this year. Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and – you guessed it – Randy Arozarena. With exactly 23 home runs and 23 stolen bases, Arozarena has entered an elite group this season.
His batting average has also improved from past seasons. He hit .219 last season with a .388 slugging percentage, but now that is up to .250 and a .468 slugging percentage. He is also in striking range of setting career-highs in runs, stolen bases, home runs, and RBI.
The secret this year has been a massive increase in his barrel rate from 2024. Compared to the 8.4% from 2024, his barrel rate in 2025 is up by a margin of 50% (12.8%). That hard hit ability is generating line drives and fly balls, which has caused his ground ball rate to fall back from very high levels.
Geraldo Perdomo (SS – ARI)
While Randy Arozarena’s statistical output is incredible, it actually doesn’t come close to comparing to what Geraldo Perdomo has done relative to expectations. Perdomo is currently a top-30 hitter in baseball with a .286 average, 12 home runs, 17 steals, and 78 RBI. Even though he primarily bats in the middle of Arizona’s order, Perdomo has become a fantasy star.
After going 2-for-5 with a home run, two RBI, and five total bases on Monday, Perdomo officially entered the top echelon of fantasy batters. Just 25 years old, Perdomo is having a career year as he enters his prime seasons. His walk rate is up to 13.4%. His strikeout rate is down to just 10.7%. And he has added five percentage points to his hard-hit rate this year.
You can also blame Perdomo for single-handedly keeping uber-prospect Jordan Lawlar down in the minor leagues for much of this year, but the Diamondbacks aren’t complaining. After Lawlar suffered a serious injury, Perdomo has continued to excel. He was thought to be a placeholder or utility player until Lawlar is ready, but now Arizona can’t build its best lineup without him.
Nick Pivetta (SP – SDP)
If you were to just look at the odds for the 2025 NL Cy Young, you wouldn’t think Nick Pivetta is having the stellar year he is. He is currently +15000 to win the award this year, behind pitchers like Matt Boyd and Robbie Ray. Pivetta might be having the quietest elite year by a pitcher in a long time.
As of Monday night, Pivetta was 11-4 with a 2.94 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and 139 strikeouts in 134 innings pitched. Coming off some injuries in 2024, Pivetta signed very late in the offseason with San Diego, but his patience paid off. The combination of the friendly park, the defense behind him, and an elite offense has helped propel Pivetta’s career year.
His best year before 2025 was 2023, when he was 10-9 with a 4.04 ERA. He has lost a little bit of strikeout rate since that season, but has made up for it with fewer walks, fewer home runs, and better command.
Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Assets
Jackson Merrill (OF – SDP)
I am a Jackson Merrill apologist. A true believer. But something is really wrong with him since he came back from an injury earlier this summer. In June, Merrill hit .238/.319/.338. And it was worse in July. He hit .196/.262/.304 that month. Some of his power and on-base ability have come back in August, but this isn’t the same player we saw take over baseball in 2024.
I look at things like his hard-hit rate and see that it is down 2.5 percentage points this year. His groundball rate is up, and his flyball rate is down. He is drawing more walks than last year, but also striking out 25% more.
Merrill is still just 22 years old and won’t turn 23 until after next season starts. So we should give him a little bit of a break. But for a player who was drafted in the third round in spring drafts, we expected a lot more than this. Here’s hoping that he is fully recovered from his concussion and concussion-related symptoms next year.
MacKenzie Gore (SP – WSH)
MacKenzie Gore is so maddeningly inconsistent, it drives fantasy managers crazy. Here are his inning totals from his past seven starts: 6.0, 3.0, 5.1, 5.0, 2.1, 6.0, and 5.1. He can’t go deep in games, even when his strikeout game is on point. And every so often, he has these blow-up games that ruin the ratios.
Add it all up, and MacKenzie Gore has a 4.09 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and just five wins this season. Gore shows flashes from time to time, like he did on Sunday with six innings with no runs and 10 strikeouts. But trying to predict those outings has been a fool’s errand. He shut down San Francisco, but got shelled by the Athletics.
The offense and team behind him don’t do him any favors either. The Nationals keep on losing, which will cap any upside he has in a rotisserie format where wins are a primary category.
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