The Miami Marlins (58-62) visit the Cleveland Guardians (62-57) Thursday in the finale of their 3-game series. First pitch from Progressive Field is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Marlins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Marlins are in third place in the NL East and trail in the Wild Card race by 6 games. They have lost 7 of their last 10. After a 4-3 loss in Tuesday’s series opener, they snapped a 4-game skid Wednesday by beating the Guardians 13-4, pounding out 17 hits and homering 4 times. They scored 4 runs in the top of the first inning and, after Cleveland tied the score 4-4 with 3 runs in the bottom of the fourth, they scored 9 unanswered runs, including 5 in the sixth inning. OF Jakob Marsee had 7 RBIs on 4 hits, including 2 homers. 3B Graham Pauley had a solo HR among his 4 hits.

The Guardians are in second place in the AL Central, trailing the Detroit Tigers by 6 1/2 games, but they hold the second Wild Card berth currently. Their loss Wedesday was their second in 3 games, but they are 10-4 in their last 14 games. They had only 5 hits Wednesday and their runs came from a solo homer by OF Steven Kwan and a 3-run shot by SS Gabriel Arias.

Marlins at Guardians projected starters

RHP Edward Cabrera vs. RHP Tanner Bibee

Cabrera (6-5, 3.08 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 108 innings.

Last start: Win, 8 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 11 K in 5-1 road win over the Atlanta Braves last FridayIs 3-1 with 1.40 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 4 ER) over last 4 startsFacing Guardians for the first time2025 road splits: 2-3, 3.40 ERA (45 IP, 17 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 9 starts

Bibee (8-9, 4.60 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 131 innings.

Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 9-5 road win over the Chicago White Sox last FridayGuardians are 6-0 in his last 6 starts despite his allowing 4-plus runs in 5 of those 6 startsFacing Marlins for the first time2025 home splits: 2-3, 3.19 ERA (53 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 in 9 starts

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Marlins at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:27 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Guardians -135 (bet $135 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-200) | Guardians -1.5 (+165)Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Marlins at Guardians picks and predictionsPrediction

Guardians 6, Marlins 4

Cabrera has been fantastic as of late, but the Guardians score runs for Bibee. Despite Bibee’s 5.85 ERA over his last 6 starts, the Guardians are 6-0, averaging 7.2 runs in those outings. The Guardians have not lost a home series since being swept by Detroit July 4-6. They are 40-21 against teams without winning records.

The Marlins have allowed 5.8 runs per game over their last 10 games.

The Guardians should win this game, but you can get more value with the run line.

PASS.

Seven of the Marlins’ last 8 losses have been my 2 or more runs, but they are 39-22 ATS on the road, the second-best such record in baseball, while the Guardians are 24-34 ATS at home.

Of the Guardians’ last 10 wins, 5 have been by just 1 run, but 5 of their 6 wins in Bibee’s last 6 starts have been by 2 or more runs.

BET GUARDIANS -1.5 (+165).

Bibee’s last 7 starts have had totals of 8 or more runs. Nine of the Marlins’ last 11 games and 7 of their last 8 losses have had more than 7 total runs.

BET OVER 7.5 (-115).

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