The D-Backs have been uniquely blessed with consistency at first base for much of the franchise’s history. Prior to this season, you would have to go all the way back to the 2010 season to find a first baseman not named either Paul Goldschmidt or Christian Walker – and I’m sure many couldn’t name the starting first baseman from that 2010 campaign. In fact, the team has only had 11 players to play at least 100 games and 51% of their time at first, which puts them in the upper-third of that consistency metric since 1998. So when it became obvious that Walker would likely reject the qualifying offer the D-Backs extended last offseason and test the open market, it opened up the possibility that their consistency at first would be tested. At first, it seemed that Pavin Smith would finally get a much-deserved runway to demonstrate whether or not he was an everyday player, but that chance quickly evaporated when the D-Backs acquired Josh Naylor early in the offseason.
It was obvious that given Naylor’s pending free agency this year and the hefty payday he’s likely to receive from someone this offseason, he was always going to be a stopgap, which would have put Smith back into the proverbial driver’s seat. Alas, the story accumulated a few more wrinkles as Smith has been on the shelf since the beginning of July with an oblique strain (though he’s already a couple games into a rehab assignment) and the D-Backs acquired prospect Tyler Locklear in their firesale at the Trade Deadline. Those two developments have significantly complicated Smith’s path to everyday playing time. So given that first base is seemingly the only question mark in the infield for 2026, where exactly does that leave Smith and what options are there for the D-Backs?
It’s worth noting that despite the fact that Smith has been around for nearly five years, he’s bounced between the majors and minors so much that he’s just entering his first year of arbitration eligibility and won’t be a free agent until 2028. That fact combined with his recent uptick in production at the plate make him a very valuable asset. Unfortunately, much of that offensive value has come against right-handed pitchers as he’s posted a .268/.369/.468 slash line against them compared to an unsightly .176/.391/.176 slash line against southpaws this season. Those numbers don’t improve much when you zoom out as his career-long slash line against righties sits at .253/.340/.435 and a .223/.297/.302 slash against lefties. Dramatic splits like that likely limit Smith’s upside to a platoon bat rather than an everyday player.
I know we’re all still feeling a little emotionally raw after watching so many fan-favorite players shipped out to refresh the farm system, but this year’s cavalcade of pitching injuries will cascade into next year too. Right now, the starting rotation shakes out as (in some order) Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Ryne Nelson with a number of question marks beyond them. Similarly, the bullpen is far from a settled thing with lots of intriguing options and little stability. Mike Hazen and the rest of his staff will need to get creative this offseason while waiting for both starters and high-leverage bullpen arms to slowly make their way back to the team in the latter half of 2026. Given that fact and Smith’s remaining years of team control, Hazen will have to at least consider the possibility of flipping Smith and either a prospect, money, or a lower asking price for additional pitching talent that can ideally help in 2026 and 2027. If you take a quick glance at the Wins Above Average broken down by position chart, you can easily see the number of contending teams that have either disappointing or underperformance from their first basemen. That kind of disappointment means that those teams might be more willing to part with some surplus pitching talent to shore up their first base situation.
I’ve slowly but surely become a big fan of Smith’s. He has absolutely bided his time and earned the opportunity to demonstrate what he’s capable of in the big leagues. I could easily see him in the Walker mold of, “overlooked player blocked by more accomplished veteran at the same position” even if he’s never able to reach the heights Walker achieved with the D-Backs. I would be reluctant to watch him go at this point, but he also deserves to be in a place and with a team that will finally give him the kind of runway of playing time that he hasn’t been able to get in the desert. Thankfully, that’s an unlikely result in my opinion. While there are plenty of teams that would be motivated to make a trade for someone of Smith’s caliber, the jury is still out on Locklear and I doubt that Hazen would take a chance on a player that has just 13 games under his belt to take on the mantle of starting first baseman.