The Yankees ran into the Twins at the perfect time. Just when they were about to fall out a playoff spot, they drew the team they have always dominated and took two of three games with minimal drama (even if the finale had its own frustration). The next step comes in St. Louis, as the Yankees will look to capture some honest-to-goodness momentum from just their third series win since the All-Star break. If they can take another series, then they’ll have back-to-back series wins for the first time since May.

However, the Yankees’ biggest headaches this season have come away from the Bronx, particularly of late. They’ve dropped 19 of their last 24 contests in the road grays, joining just four other teams in franchise history to have put together such a stretch. That obviously has to change if they want to remain in the postseason hunt, let alone fight to climb back atop the division.

The 61-61 Cardinals are appropriately in the midst of their second straight season falling completely down the middle of the league. Their offense ranks 15th in wRC+ (99) and the pitching is tied for 19th in ERA- (102)—essentially average in both facets. Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras, Alec Burleson, and Iván Herrera can all be tough outs. At the Trade Deadline they dealt four members of their pitching staff, most notably closer Ryan Helsley. But they stopped short of a full sell-off, as veterans Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray stayed put. Arenado’s on the IL, but the Yankees will see their old friend this weekend.

Friday: Luis Gil vs. Andre Pallante (8:15 PM ET)

Gil’s stuff was far sharper in his second start than his first, as he limited the Astros to two runs on six hits over 5.1 innings while striking out seven. The key for Luis in St. Louis: just one walk in 22 batters faced. If he stays in the strike zone, he’s as tough to hit as any man in baseball. The Cardinals’ lineup has a healthy combination of free swingers and patient hitters, so it’s tough to prognosticate how good of a matchup they are for him. If he’s throwing that fastball for strikes out of the gate though, look out.

Andre Pallante is a high-groundball, low-strikeout righty who has struggled to replicate a successful 2024. He’s gritting his teeth through the toughest stretch of his season, surrendering five or more earned runs in three of his last five starts. The Cubs lit him up for six his last time out—he only managed five outs before getting the hook. Despite those blowup starts, he also pitched seven scoreless just a few weeks ago against the Marlins—so he’s not a total tomato can.

Saturday: Max Fried vs. Sonny Gray (7:15 PM ET)

The middle game of this set features the tastiest pitching matchup; I’m sure FOX, which has the TV rights for this one, is pleased. Max Fried is still searching for a return to his first-half form, having put together a pair of uninspiring performances against the two Texan teams. Fried’s command simply hasn’t been as sharp since that blister issue which popped up right ahead of the All-Star break, and the numbers reflect that: a 5.73 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in the second half so far. For what it’s worth, he’s diced up the Cards to the tune of a 1.10 ERA in six career matchups.

Sonny Gray remains one of the most compelling what-ifs of recent Yankee history. The affable Tennessean couldn’t click in pinstripes, but was instantly excellent again upon leaving New York. It’s actually been long enough that the only currently active Yankees remaining from the Gray Era are Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. This is the elder-statesman arc of Gray’s career, but he’s been a rock for the Redbirds over the past two seasons. Sonny’s bag is deep: seven pitches, none of which he’s overly reliant on. And he’s a strike thrower in the truest sense: his 4 percent walk rate in 2025 is the skinniest of his 13-year career.

Sunday: Will Warren vs. Miles Mikolas (2:15 PM ET)

When this season is said and done, regardless of how successful it winds up being for the Yankees, Will Warren will go down as one of the team’s unsung heroes. The rookie has helped superglue this rotation together through injuries, DFAs, and all manner of other headaches. There have been growing pains for Warren, but also plenty of brilliant outings, like his winning effort against Minnesota on Monday, the first to go six innings in a week and a half. He continues to pace all rookie pitchers in strikeouts, and he’s been trending in the right direction since a tough night in Atlanta, allowing two runs or fewer in each of his last four turns through the rotation.

Now, here’s a statistical oddity for you. Miles Mikolas and the aforementioned Andre Pallante have had nearly identical seasons in many respects. They’ve both started 23 games. Their ERAs are within two hundredths of each other (4.97 vs. 4.95), and they have the same ERA+ of 83. Pallante has just one more strikeout than Mikolas, and just two more hits allowed. Mikolas has thrown about six fewer innings overall, but it’s freaky just how much overlap there is between these two guys.

The 36-year old Mikolas has scuffled to an ERA over 5.00 across the last three seasons. He’s effectively playing out the string on his contract, which expires at season’s end. The hard-contact suppression which fueled his best seasons in St. Louis has all but evaporated, and a near-12 percent barrel rate allowed means the Yankees should get their share of pitches to drive in the series finale. Still, Mikolas’ journey, in which he parlayed three strong seasons with the Yomiuri Giants to two All-Star selections in the States, is one heck of a career revival story.