April 5, 2024, was the last time that Spencer Strider appeared in a baseball game that counted. He lasted four innings but was clearly off, with a 4/3 K/BB ratio and an average fastball velocity he had only shown in one of his 2023 starts. He then hit the shelf with elbow woes, and you pretty much know the rest: an internal brace procedure, recovery, rehab, some Spring Training and Triple-A appearances, the works. You also probably know that while the Atlanta Braves soared for a few weeks even after his injuries, they’ve been rooting around in a quagmire pretty much ever since.

That “ever since” includes 2025, where the 5-12 Braves have yet to win consecutive games all season (and won’t do so here). The offense is starting to look like last year’s: good, unlucky. The Braves are now ninth in xwOBA (which includes whatever harebrained approach they were using on the season-opening, 0-7 road trip), but still have one of the league’s biggest underperformances of their inputs, which is pretty much what happened in 2024 (seventh in xwOBA, seventh-biggest underperformance; in 2025 they’re ninth in both).

The problem is that the pitching has looked anything but last year’s form: the Braves had far and away the best pitching staff in baseball last year, even with Strider basically not contributing, including the league’s most productive rotation. This year, though? Third-worst pitching staff, fourth-worst rotation. It should be noted that the team’s poor pitching performance is driven almost entirely by HR/FB; their xFIP- is slightly above average and the rotation’s xFIP- is in the top ten. That said, they’re losing games because of those homers yielded (see yesterday, for example), and to the extent Spencer Strider can do the stuff he does well — strikeouts up, homers yielded down — that should be a huge boost to the team.

Of course, this game isn’t solely a referendum on the Braves and Strider’s return — the Blue Jays will also be trying to win. Helping that cause is that their scheduled starter for this game, Chris Bassitt, has been excellent to date: three starts, 18 1⁄3 innings, a 25 ERA-, a 30 FIP-, and a 66 xFIP-. That’s tough. He’s yet to give up a homer, has a 21/3 K/BB ratio, and his worst outing was his most recent, where he still had a 5/1 K/BB ratio and lasted 5 2⁄3 against the Red Sox.

The Braves also haven’t exactly fared well recently against Bassitt, either: he threw a complete game shutout against them in May 2023, and did really well against them twice with the Mets in 2022… at least until that fateful late-season series where they got their revenge and clobbered him en route to overtaking the Mets for the division crown.

Game Date/Time: Wednesday, April 16, 1:07 p.m. EDT

Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON

TV: FanDuel Sports South/Southeast

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan