The New York Yankees earned themselves a bit of breathing room for the third and final AL Wild Card spot on Friday. New York beat the St. Louis Cardinals 4-3 in the first battle of their three-game set, while the Cleveland Guardians dropped a 2-0 decision to the Atlanta Braves. Those two outcomes gave the Yankees a 1.5-game lead for the third Wild Card bid after entering Friday only up half a game on Cleveland. Now the Yankees will look to grow that margin even more when they take on the Cardinals on Saturday, Aug. 16, at 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX.

If you’re looking to get into MLB betting at the top sportsbooks, check out the SportsLine Projection Model for the latest Yankees vs. Cardinals odds, predictions and player props. The model enters Week 21 of the 2025 MLB season at a profitable 31-23 on top-rated MLB money line picks.

There are three starting pitchers with double-digit victories this campaign between these two teams, and two of them are battling against each other tonight. The Yankees are sending out southpaw Max Fried (12-5, 2.94 ERA), while Sonny Gray (11-5, 4.06 ERA) takes the bump in front of his home fans. 

Gray’s strikeout prop sits at 6.5 (Over -108, Under -118) at FanDuel Sportsbook, while Fried’s is nearby at 5.5 (Over +126, Under -166). The SportsLine Projection Model’s top strikeout prop for this contest is Gray Under 6.5 punchouts. The model projects him to strike out 6.1 batters when he faces his former team, making this Under a 3.5-star play (out of 5 stars). 

Jazz Chisholm was the only player to homer in the Friday game of this series, and he has the fourth-shortest odds to go yard again tonight at +480. Aaron Judge leads the way at +230, followed by teammates Giancarlo Stanton at +300 and Trent Grisham at +430. The first Cardinal player who appears is Nolan Gorman at +600, and he has the seventh-lowest overall odds for this market. 

The Yankees are -146 road favorites to win (wager $146 to win $100) in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, while the Cardinals are +122 (wager $100 to win $122) home underdogs. The total resides at 8 with the Under favored at -115. You can find the model’s latest projections and expert picks for Yankees-Cardinals at SportsLine.

Here are the SportsLine model’s projections for Yankees vs. Cardinals on Saturday.

NEW YORK YANKEES at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS | 8/16 | 7:15 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Yankees -146
New York wins in 59% of simulations

Run line
Pick: Cardinals +1.5 (-140)
St. Louis covers in 59% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Over 8 (-105)
The Over hits in 56.9% of simulations

Projected score: Yankees 5.2, Cardinals 4.3