Numbers are fun. You can add them, subtract them, analyze them, sprinkle them in your alphabet to create a hard to guess password, it just goes on and on. Here are some numbers to ponder on this Saturday morning…
As we know, Nick Kurtz is taking the league by storm at age 22. Especially on Fridays, the day on which he has now his last 5 HRs. Kurtz’ season batting line, after 82 big league games, now stands at an impressive .305/.384/.631, good for a 174 wRC+ and a stranglehold on the AL’s Rookie of the Year award.
But that’s not where the numbers give you “video game stats” vibes. Kurtz still has work to do to master LHPs, something he absolutely has the skill set to do with his terrific LF and left-center field approach and even power, his strong pitch recognition skills and patience to attack his pitch and not the pitcher’s.
That’s still a work-in-progress, as Kurtz is hitting just .200/.260/.388 (73 wRC+), with a 35.4% K rate. His BABIP of .260 suggests that besides whiffing over 1/3 of the time, when Kurtz is making contact against LHPs it’s not the reliably hard contact he makes against RHPs.
Which brings us to today’s key stat. Easily lost in Kurtz’ overall stats — which are plenty gaudy, especially in the context of his age and experience — is the extent to which he is utterly destroying RHPs. Get ready for some eye popping stats.
Nick Kurtz, age 22, after 43 minor league games and 82 major league games: .347/.433/.728, for a 214 wRC+, with 20 HRs in 246 PAs (that a HR every 12.3 PAs). His BABIP against RHPs? A cool .443. “Ah, so ‘unsustainable’ then?” you say? Well, not sustainable at that rate, no, but what it reflects is not that Kurtz hits RHPs with 7 rabbits feet dangling from his back pocket. It shows how hard he is hitting the ball against righties.
Kurtz’ line drive rate against RHPs is 21.1%, his “soft contact %” is an insanely low 4.2%. The rest of the “almost all the time” he pretty evenly divides between “medium contact,” 47.2%, and “hard contact,“ 48.6%. That will keep your BABIP healthy, especially when you use the whole field and can’t be over shifted.
A 214 wRC+ would have been Barry Bonds’ 4th best season. Jim Thome’s highest wRC+ season was 177 and for his career against RHP he was at 162. Shohei Ohtani mashes RHPs too: to the tune of a 185 wRC+ this season and 168 for this career.
That’s how good a 214 wRC+ is: 1st ballot Hall-of-Famer “video game numbers” good. But perhaps the most impressive and key number in all of this is 22.
Just something to keep an eye on. Hernaiz has been somewhat of a revelation at SS despite his recent 1 for 19 skid, because he has been slick and flawless at SS and he has consistently had good at bats that reflect patience, good swing decisions, and situational awareness.
Like Kurtz, however, Hernaiz has come to his overall stats by way of disparate splits. The sample is so tiny it is not worth putting any stock into at this point — but it merits watching to see if it’s a blip or a trend.
Following a hot start and then cold week, after 15 games Hernaiz is batting .224/.328/.388 (96 wRC+) with a 14.6% BB rate and 6.8% K rate. But here are Hernaiz’ L/R splits after 61 plate appearances:
vs. LHP: 4 for 13 with 6 BB and 0 K.
vs. RHP: 7 for 36 with 3 BB and 4 K.
Hernaiz has been practically perfect in the field (the metrics agree, giving him +3 DRS/+3 OAA in just 15 games), which makes him defensively so far what the A’s were going for when they drafted Nick Allen. Trouble is, Hernaiz is also hitting like Nick Allen who, over an actually reliable sample size, has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that he can’t hit RHPs (career .202/.253/.245, 42 wRC+).
So as we watch Hernaiz develop as a hitter in the big leagues, keep the closest eye on whether he can do more against RHPs than just walk or squeeze a sac fly out of the at bat. If he can hold his own against RHPs he’s got a bright future be it as an every day SS or a valuable utility infielder. If he can’t…well, then, maybe the Braves can fix him.
Is Gelof still the A’s 2Bman of the future or is he someone’s “fresh start” reclamation project? Gelof took the league by storm in 2023 only to regress heavily in 2024, but 2024 was nothing compared to the unmitigated disaster 2025 has been — until August.
Gelof’s 2025 season was interrupted before it started as he got hit by a pitch in spring training and opened the season on the IL. In the big leagues he was 2 for 25 with 13 K, showing the same vulnerabilities that plagued him in 2024: he swung and missed fastballs in the strike zone and he flailed uncontrollably at chase sliders.
Banished to AAA, even the hitter’s paradise of Las Vegas and the PCL couldn’t coax success, or even contact, out of Gelof. In July he batted .195/.299/.268 with a 33.7% K rate. How the mighty had fallen.
Cancel the Medic Alert necklace, though! Gelof has fallen but perhaps he can get up. For the last 4 games, suddenly Zack Gelof looks like…the guy we got all excited about in 2023. It’s 4 games in the PCL by a 25 year old so it means exactly precisely nothing but it still happened…
Gelof’s last 4 games: 5 for 14 with 4 BB, 2 K, 4 HR and 3 stolen bases. Perhaps most important of all is that Gelof has struck out only twice in 18 PA, as contact has and continues to be his main issue. The speed and power are there, he hits the ball hard when he hits it, and his BB rate has been fine. He just strikes out all the time these days — except this week.
So there are some stats to ponder and discuss. Any to add to the conversation? Like Shea Langeliers batting .274 now for the season, a full .050 points higher than his career best in 3 previous seasons? Or his “Nick Kurtz against RHPs” like .383/.404/.832, 233 wRC+ line since the All-Star break. OK, ok, I said it was your turn, sorry. It’s just that numb3rs are so fun.