The Yankees just swept a team in fourth place in their division and outside of playoff contention. They’ll look to do that once again early next week. While all of this is true, a run of games against the St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays is as good a moment as any to stress the importance of context, regardless of whether you’re going to be facing two teams with similar records in similar spots.
It would be easy to simply point to the Pythagorean win-loss record of these two clubs, the Cardinals at 59-65 and the Rays at 67-57, in order to argue who is clearly the superior team, but we won’t do that. Yankee fans know better than anyone else this season about the dangers of a binary approach to the whole Pythagorean win-loss/actual win-loss record.
It all starts with starting pitching, no pun intended, and in that department, the Cardinals’ best starter, as it was very evident in Saturday’s slugfest, is seeing his once-upon-a-time promising campaign unraveling. Sonny Gray’s near 7.00 second-half ERA leads to very little confidence in a productive outing when he takes the mound these days. Beyond Gray, the Cardinals basically deploy a collective of serviceable starters you’d be happy to have filling out the final spots in your rotation, but that, as a whole, lack that front-line ability.
If we move over to the Rays, the Yankees will see Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen in the two-game series this week. An All-Star this season, Rasmussen has quietly put up one of the best seasons in the American League, and although by all accounts, Baz has been pretty bad (4.93 ERA), his raw talent is still a bit scary on any given night. Not every team has a starter with Baz’ talent level, doing well or not.
Further increasing the difference between these two teams, you have the absence of important pieces this season. Looking in the Cardinals’ bullpen, their closer of recent campaigns, Ryan Helsley, is no longer a part of what has been an effective ‘pen this season, having been moved to the New York Mets. When it comes to the lineup, the Cardinals faced the Yankees without their sole All-Star hitter this season. Brendan Donovan missed all three games of this series with a foot problem despite not being on the IL.
Without Donovan, the Cardinals are mostly reliant on their two non-catching catchers for their offensive output in Willson Contreras and Iván Herrera, with the pair getting the majority of playing time at first base and DH.
As far as the Rays’ offense, it may not have particularly stronger numbers, but the core of it, combined with a park that favors hitters, generates a more daunting opponent, even if the Cardinals’ offense did its fair share of damage against the Yankees. Perhaps the individual to highlight the difference in how you treat these two offenses is Junior Caminero, a burgeoning star OPS’ing nearly 1.000 in 27 second-half games to drive up his season numbers. Brandon Lowe and Yandy Diaz continue to be their ever-so-reliable selves, and Jonathan Aranda is another exciting young hitter, rounding out the core of that lineup.
Even on the speedsters front, the Rays at the present time carry an edge over the Cardinals. While Victor Scott was placed on the IL during this recent series against the Yanks, Chandler Simpson’s impact on the basepaths is virtually unmatched, stealing 34 bags in 75 games.
Noting the number of series the Yankees have against non-contending teams, we mustn’t lose sight of the context around each one and avoid throwing all of them in the same bucket. They can’t afford to waste a single series if they want to hold onto their place in the postseason hunt, and taking any of them lightly could lead to disappointment come October.