For the most part, winning series is what matters. But the Red Sox missed a sweep of the Miami Marlins before the Baltimore Orioles rolled into town. Something about a bird in the hand…

They lead the New York Yankees by just half a game, making the four games in the Bronx this weekend suddenly viral in determining the balance of power in the Wild Card standings. But first, Baltimore.

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After having the starting pitcher advantage against the Marlins, against Baltimore the Red Sox will be underdogs (kinda sorta…it’s weird), sending the discarded back half of the Dodgers rotation against the Birds.

Newfound ace Trevor Rogers (what? yes, that’s correct) woke up on May 24th – against the Red Sox – and shut them down for 6 innings allowing two hits and no runs – and hasn’t let up. He’s really only faced three teams with good offenses – the Phillies, Mariners, and Mariners, and, coincidentally his last three starts – but he shut them down too. Over his toughest run of the season Rogers threw 21 innings while allowing 3 runs, 16 hits, 2 walks, and 20 strikeouts. The upside is he’s been lucky: his FIP is 2.45. However, when he last faced Boston they still had Rafael “Dead Weight” Devers (I kid, I kid) and not Roman Anthony. Plus Alex Bregman was injured the day before.

Dustin May is coming off an excellent start against the Houston Astros and will need to do that again if Boston wants any chance of winning against apparently a Cy Young and former 5+ ERA guy.

Tomoyuki Sugano brings his talents to Fenway having dodged the Sox in their earlier matchups with Baltimore. His repertoire is an almost even split between a sweeper, four-seamer, sinker, splitter, and cutter. With a dash of curveballs thrown in for good measure. He doesn’t really even thrown in the mid-90s but that’s more or less working for him. Since a 4.2 inning / 6-run blowup against the Rangers in July he’s tossed 33 innings of 3.27 ERA / 3.84 FIP baseball. His strikeout percentage is just 15% or 5.8 per 9 innings. Which is low. Buehler, posting the worst strikeout numbers of his career is over 16% or 6.6 per 9.

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Where the Red Sox can make up some ground: only Gunnar Henderson has an OPS north of .800. The other O’s who were hitting were traded at the deadline. Adley Rutchman, Jackson Holliday, Ryan Mountcastle, and Colton Cowser are all having down years. Will it be enough for May and Buehler to look good? Fingers crossed.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Monday, August 18: Trevor Rogers (1.43 ERA / 2.45 FIP) vs. Dustin May (4.67 ERA / 4.72 FIP)

Tuesday, August 19: Tomoyuki Sugano (4.13 ERA / 4.90 FIP) vs. Walker Buehler (5.43 ERA / 5.89 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Monday August 18: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Tuesday August 19: 7:10 PM ET on NESN