The Seattle Mariners just endured perhaps their toughest road trip of the season, but when it comes to the playoff race in the American League, they were lucky.
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While the M’s lost seven of nine games on a swing through the East Coast, their primary competition in the standings also struggled. So as they head home for a day off Thursday before opening a homestand Friday, the Mariners remain in playoff position with plenty of opportunity to move back up.
After the Phillies capped off a three-game sweep of Seattle on Wednesday, the Mariners sit at a 68-60 record. Here’s a look at where that puts them in the AL playoff race.
AL West
While it’s been a tough go for the M’s over the last week-plus, it hasn’t been much better for the division-leading Houston Astros. They too were swept in a three-game series that ended Wednesday, that coming in Detroit against the AL Central-leading Tigers.
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Houston sits 1 1/2 games ahead of the Mariners with a 69-58 record after dropping five of their last six games, including four straight. Seattle, meanwhile, has lost five in a row and seven of its last eight, but it had the benefit of having won eight straight and 10 of 11 before beginning the road trip.
The Astros next have four games in Baltimore against an Orioles team that has won six of its last seven, including two wins in a series at Houston last weekend.
AL wild card
This is where the Mariners did lose ground, though not in a catastrophic way.
Seattle began its road trip on Aug. 12 in possession of the first wild card with a lead of 1 1/2 games over the Boston Red Sox and 2 1/2 games over the New York Yankees.
The Yankees have been rolling with a four-game winning streak and five wins in their last six games entering a Wednesday series finale at Tampa Bay, moving them into the first of the three wild cards with a 68-57 record.
The Red Sox haven’t been so lucky, losing three straight. They’re in the second wild card at 68-59.
That leaves the Mariners in the third and final wild card spot, two games ahead of the Kansas City Royals (65-51). The M’s are just a half-game back of Boston and 1 1/2 games behind the Yankees.
The good news is the M’s are about to get help in one way or another in the wild card chase. The Red Sox will be at Yankee Stadium for four games beginning Thursday, meaning Seattle will pick up a half-game on whoever loses Thursday, then will have ample opportunity to gain ground throughout the weekend.
Playoff odds
Even with the Mariners behind the Astros in the standings, ESPN has Seattle’s chances of making the playoffs at 89.2%, just a bit higher than Houston at 88.4%. The M’s are also well ahead of Boston’s 71.3%.
Fangraphs also likes the Mariners’ playoff chances (89.3%) better than the Astros’ (85.7%), plus gives them better odds to win the AL West (51.5% for Seattle, 47.5% for Houston).
Seattle has the fourth-best odds of American League teams, per Fangraphs, to win the World Series (8.5%) behind the Yankees (9.9%), Tigers (9.4%) and AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays (9%).
Up next
The Mariners return from the day off Thursday by starting a six-game homestand with a three-game set against the Athletics (57-70 entering Wednesday), who are last in the AL West and have the second-worst record in the AL. That being said, the A’s have been playing well. They are 15-8 since July 24, including six wins in their last nine games.
First pitch for Seattle’s series opener against the Athletics is at 7:10 p.m. Friday. Radio coverage begins at 6 p.m. with the pregame show on Seattle Sports 710 AM and the Seattle Sports app.
Seattle Sports’ Zac Hereth contributed to this post.
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