One of the popular concerns for fans in sports is the idea of “peaking too early,” that teams essentially hit their stride too early in the season and have nowhere to go but down when the stakes are raised in the postseason.
It’s an illogical belief from the start in sports, where the chaos-agent of injuries can completely alter a team’s trajectory, particularly late in the season when injury impact has accumulated to its greatest. There’s also the changed nature of postseason — pared-down rotation of key players, different schedule, greater stakes — that makes it an unwise comparison to the regular season.
Is it possible, though, that the Milwaukee Brewers “peaked too early” when they went on a 14-game winning streak in August, when the biggest games of the year don’t arrive until the team is through September?
Freddy Peralta speaks about shutout performance vs Cubs on Aug. 18
Freddy Peralta allowed just one hit over six innings against the Cubs, and the Brewers kept rolling with a 7-0 win Aug. 18 at Wrigley Field.
Surely even after a doubleheader sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs, with the Brewers still comfortably ahead of their nearest competitors, it’s not time to draw rash conclusions, right? Right? Right???
Defining what exactly it means to “peak too early” also presents a challenge. Do you examine how early a team clinched a playoff spot, and whether the relatively meaningless stretch between that moment and the start of the postseason softened the players too much? Do you examine a team’s September relative to their postseason success? Do you examine a team’s best stretch and figure out how much time has passed between then and the playoffs?
We can try to study all three, using the most recent World Series champions (in a full season; we will continue to ignore 2020) as a guide. It’s anecdotal evidence, and it requires stating the obvious: All the teams that won the World Series were good, so it stands to reason that they had many good stretches of baseball over the course of a season.
Of course, that means we won’t talk about some of the unfortunate examples of playoff flameout, like the 100-plus win Los Angeles Dodgers teams that didn’t make it out of the National League Division Series in 2022 or 2023. No matter how the numbers get sliced, high variance will always present an issue in playoff baseball. Heck, in 2022, there were 11 postseason series, and the team with the lesser regular-season record won six of them.
The changing playoff format also makes this an inelegant comparison to past years. Teams that get a first-round bye past the wild-card round now have longer rest, and that format was only implemented in 2022 — with the one-game wild-card rounds before that.
With all those caveats out of the way, here’s what we know about the last 10 full-season World Series champions:
2024 champion: Los Angeles DodgersFinal record: 98-64 (.605, No. 1 record in baseball, won division)Playoff record: 11-5 (4-1 win in World Series over New York Yankees)First playoff game: Oct. 5Clinched playoff spot: Sept. 19 (7-2 to close year)Clinched No. 1 seed: Sept. 28September record: 16-10 (.615)August record: 19-8 (.704)Best 20-game stretch of season: 16-4 (latest April 23 to May 14). Dodgers went 69-49 rest of season (.585)Worst 20-game stretch of season: 8-12 (July 7 to Aug. 2). Dodgers went 35-17 rest of season (.673)
The Dodgers were a juggernaut in the postseason last year, but they also faced two elimination games against the San Diego Padres in the NLDS and had to rally for wins by a count of 8-0 and 2-0. The Dodgers’ worst month was in July (11-13), and their best month was August (19-8).
2023 champion: Texas RangersFinal record: 90-72 (.556, wild card)Playoff record: 13-3 (4-1 win in World Series over Diamondbacks)First playoff game: Oct. 3.Clinched playoff spot: Sept. 30 (penultimate day of season, 0-1 to close year)September/October record: 15-14 (.517)August record: 15-12 (.556)Best 20-game stretch of season: 15-5 (latest May 19 to June 10). Rangers went 49-50 rest of season (.495)Worst 20-game stretch of season: 4-16 (Aug. 16 to Sept. 8). Rangers went 14-8 rest of season (.636)
The Rangers won their first seven games in the playoffs, ending up with a 2-0 lead in the American League Championship Series before going down, 3-2. That was despite a relatively chilly finish to the regular season, certainly nothing that resembled “peaking at the right time.” The Rangers won the final two games of that series, 9-2 and 11-4, before advancing to the World Series. Current injured Brewers acquisition Jordan Montgomery pitched Game 7 of the ALCS, moving to 3-0 in the playoffs. The team’s best month was May (18-9).
2022 champion: Houston AstrosFinal record: 106-56 (.654, No. 1 record in American League, won division)Playoff record: 11-2 (4-2 win in World Series over Philadelphia Phillies)First playoff game: Oct. 11Clinched playoff spot: Sept. 16 (11-6 to close year)Clinched No. 1 seed: Sept. 30September/October record: 22-9 (.710)August record: 17-11 (.607)Best 20-game stretch of season: 16-4 (latest Aug. 31 to Sept. 21). Astros went 7-5 rest of season (.583)Worst 20-game stretch of season: 9-11 (April 9 to May 1). Astros went 95-45 rest of season (.679), starting with 11-game winning streak.
The Astros rampaged in the playoffs, but only had one of its first seven games decided by more than two runs (they had four one-run wins, plus one more in the World Series). And yes, Houston was amazing by season’s end, but it was even a bit better in May, when it went 21-8.
2021 champion: Atlanta BravesFinal record: 88-73 (.547, won division)Playoff record: 11-5 (4-2 in World Series over Astros)First playoff game: Oct. 8Clinched playoff spot: Sept. 30 (2-1 to close year)September/October record: 18-11 (.621)August record: 18-8 (.692)Best 20-game stretch of season: 17-3 (July 31 to Aug. 22). Braves went 20-16 rest of season (.556)Worst 20-game stretch of season: 8-12 (latest Aug. 28 to Sept. 19). Braves went 11-2 rest of season (.846)
The Braves are probably a poster-child example of “peaking at the right time,” stumbling through a .500 season before getting hot after a successful trade deadline and making a run all the way to the World Series. It’s worth noting, however, that they did have a tough stretch from late August through most of September before winning 12 of 14 to close the year, following up their best 20-game stretch of the season with their worst in short order. They beat the Brewers in the NLDS, 3-1.
2019 champion: Washington NationalsFinal record: 93-69 (.574, wild card)Playoff record: 12-5 (4-3 in World Series over Astros)First playoff game: Oct. 1Clinched playoff spot: Sept. 24 (5-0 to close year)September record: 17-11 (.607)August record: 19-7 (.731)Best 20-game stretch of season: 16-4 (latest Aug. 12 to Sept. 3). Nationals went 15-10 rest of season (.600)Worst 20-game stretch of season: 6-14 (latest May 3 to May 23). Nationals went 74-38 rest of season (.661)
The Nationals also “got hot at the right time,” closing the year with an eight-game winning streak and then rallying to beat the Brewers in the heartbreaking Wild Card Game, with a World Series run to follow. The Nats famously started the season ultra-slowly and then rebounded … hmm, not unlike the 2025 Brewers. Washington was 19-31 on May 23 (Milwaukee this year was never worse than 21-25 on May 17). Should we mention that the Brewers also went 20-7 in September 2019 and were also peaking at the right time that year (although with three straight losses in Colorado to close the year, including two in extra innings)?
2018 champion: Boston Red SoxFinal record: 108-54 (.667, No. 1 record in baseball, won division)Playoff record: 11-3 (4-1 in World Series over Dodgers)First playoff game: Oct. 5Clinched playoff spot: Sept. 11 (9-8 to close year)Clinched No. 1 seed: Sept. 24September record: 15-11 (.577)August record: 18-9 (.667)Best 20-game stretch of season: 17-3 (latest July 27 to Aug. 18). Red Sox went 20-18 rest of season (.526)Worst 20-game stretch of season: 10-10 (latest Sept. 7 to Sept. 29). Red Sox went 1-0 rest of season (1.000)
The Red Sox had two months of 19-6 (April and July), so they were pretty much unstoppable throughout the season, although if there was a lull, it was the latest part of the season once things were wrapped up. Milwaukee nearly got to face Boston in the World Series but dropped a seventh game of the NLCS to the Dodgers. That Brewers team went 20-7 in September and October to close the year.
2017 champion: Houston AstrosFinal record: 101-61 (.623, won division)Playoff record: 11-7 (4-3 in World Series over Dodgers)First playoff game: Oct. 5Clinched playoff spot: Sept. 17 (10-2 to close year)September/October record: 21-8 (.724)August record: 11-17 (.393)Best 20-game stretch of season: 16-4 (latest May 15 to June 5). Astros went 59-45 rest of season (.567)Worst 20-game stretch of season: 7-13 (latest Aug. 1 to Aug. 22). Astros went 25-12 rest of season (.676)
There’s the caveat here of this being the “garbage can” Astros team using cameras to steal signs, though that was probably happening all season, so it’s hard to pinpoint anything specific about how it relates to a team getting hot at the right time. The Astros won six of their final seven games … all on the road, presumably away from the apparatus that allowed them to steal signs. The Astros won three elimination games in the postseason and also won a 13-12 battle over the Dodgers in 10 innings in Game 5 of the World Series.
2016 champion: Chicago CubsFinal record: 103-58 (.640, No. 1 record in baseball, won division)Playoff record: 11-6 (4-3 in World Series over Cleveland Guardians)First playoff game: Oct. 7Clinched playoff spot: Sept. 14 (10-6-1 to close year; a suspended game with the Pittsburgh Pirates was never resumed)Clinched No. 1 seed: Sept. 23September/October record: 18-10 (.642)August record: 22-6 (.786)Best 20-game stretch of season: 17-3 (latest July 28 to Aug. 18). Cubs went 26-14-1 rest of season (.650)Worst 20-game stretch of season: 5-15 (June 20 to July 9). Cubs went 51-23-1 rest of season (.689)
The Cubs went bonkers in August to lock up the National League Central, finally secured in mid-September, but the lengthy time between meaningful games didn’t keep the Cubs from winning the World Series, albeit in dramatic Game-7 fashion.
2015 champion: Kansas City RoyalsFinal record: 95-67 (.569, best record in AL, won division)Playoff record: 11-5 (4-1 in world Series over Mets)First playoff game: Oct. 8Clinched playoff spot: Sept. 24 (6-4 to close year)Clinched No. 1 seed: Oct. 4 (last day of season)September/October record: 15-17 (.469)August record: 19-9 (.679)Best 20-game stretch of season: 15-5 (latest Aug. 9 to Aug. 29). Royals went 15-18 rest of season (.455)Worst 20-game stretch of season: 7-13 (latest Sept. 9 to Sept. 26). Royals went 6-2 rest of season (.750)
The Royals had to ward off two elimination games in the ALDS before conquering what remained on the playoff ladder. A team that will no doubt serve as a comparison to the 2025 Brewers, managed by ex-Brewers skipper Ned Yost, the speed-and-bullpen approach allowed Kansas City to reach a World Series for the second consecutive season. This is not a team that “peaked” late, needing four straight wins to close the season to even make their record respectable over the final days of the season.
2014 champion: San Francisco GiantsFinal record: 88-74 (.543, wild card)Playoff record: 12-5 (4-3 in World Series over Royals)First playoff game: Oct. 1Clinched playoff spot: Sept. 26 (2-0 to close year)September record: 13-12 (.520)August record: 16-12 (.571)Best 20-game stretch of season: 16-4 (May 18 to June 8). Giants went 45-53 rest of season (.459)Worst 20-game stretch of season: 5-15 (latest June 13 to July 5). Giants went 39-35 rest of season (.527)
This serves as an example of a surprise champion, one that matched for the worst record among playoff teams. It also flies in the face of the “peaking too early” argument. The Giants clinched their spot on a day they lost because the Brewers’ loss to the Cincinnati Reds the same day brought Milwaukee’s disappointing freefall to an end and gave the last NL spot to the Giants. But like the Brewers, the Giants did their best work early in the season (17-11 in April and 20-9 in May) and then held on to maintain a playoff berth before enjoying a great run.
Some final observations
Considering the previous 10 World Series winners over a full season, the teams have a winning percentage of .600 in September. That’s pretty good but not out-of-whack with what you’d expect from a championship-caliber team. In fact, these teams’ overall regular-season records average out to … the same percentage, .600.
Only one of the 10 teams was playing its best 20-game stretch of the season close to the playoffs, and only two had those runs touch September at all. Using at least that specific number of games as a range, they all “peaked” earlier in the season.
Of these 10 teams, only three clinched a playoff spot with three or fewer games left in the season, so it’s hard to say playing meaningful baseball down the stretch tangibly affected how the team performed once it got to the playoffs. “Meaningful baseball” can also be defined in multiple ways, including the battle for home-field advantage.
Seven of the 10 teams had their worst 20-game stretch of the season after their best.
One last nugget: If we look at all playoff teams from 2014 to 2024 and consider how they fared in the final 20 games of the season, we find 13 teams that won 15 or more games in their final 20 chances. Only one of those 13 (the 2017 Astros) won the World Series, and only one other one (the 2019 Astros) even made the World Series. That list includes the 2018 Brewers, who closed the year at 15-5.