Twins fans have been thrown around the gutter over the last few years, with the team trying to figure out both broadcast and streaming options in a market that looks a lot like a burst bubble. Now, it looks like fans will likely see another change in the nature of local coverage next season—potentially with added costs.
First reported by Kendall Baker of Yahoo Sports and confirmed by Andrew Marchand of The Athletic, MLB is in talks to lease MLB.TV to ESPN for a three-year deal. This will include the service through which out-of-market fans watch their favorite teams, as well as the five teams whose broadcasts are now run by MLB itself—including the Twins.
This is part of a broader change in the distribution plan for the entire league over coming years. Apple could completely drop baseball, while NBC will pick up Saturday and Sunday night games (many of which will be broadcast only on Peacock, their streaming platform). ESPN looks likely to have a weekly national game, but on a different night. Netflix has interest in the Home Run Derby, continuing their specific interest in mega events.
But the biggest one would be selling MLB.TV. The league-owned streaming product has been a huge success since its introduction almost 20 years ago, and a moneymaker on multiple levels. It’s been a key way to deliver out-of-market viewing, as fans have unplugged from cable companies that had created highly expensive premium packages to do the same thing. The league sold the underlying technology to ESPN’s parent company, Disney, over recent years, for an enormous sum.
The key question, of course, is how this will change fans’ access to that product via subscription, in terms of either logistics or cost. The answer to that is nowhere near clear yet. The reports do indicate that both in- and out-of-market fans can still access the Twins via streaming, but Marchand reports that they will need to purchase “an ESPN direct-to-consumer subscription to go along with MLB.TV.” The same is true for those only interested in Twins.TV, requiring “an added price” alongside ESPN. While reporting suggests they are hoping to keep costs essentially the same, prices at the major streamers (including Netflix and Peacock, very recently) have soared as new content has been bundled under various umbrellas. That seems likely to continue.
It is also unclear what that will mean for Twins.TV as a service. Will it mean new branding? New commentators? Those details might not emerge until far after the deal—which is likely to close in September—is finalized. Right now, despite many reporters who cover sports media scrambling to seize upon them, details on all of this feel a bit slippery.
For Twins fans who are dedicated enough to buy this product no matter where it’s sold, though, the more pertinent question is what effect it will have on payroll. We know that the Twins are currently making much less than they were a few years ago, both from gate receipts and from TV rights. This transaction has a chance to change that. Will it make a material difference?
When the Pohlads cut payroll in the winter of 2023, many considered it to be in connection with the loss of Twins’ broadcasting revenue, which (thanks to the bankruptcy hearings through which Bally Sports had to pass) was a matter of public record: $54.3 million for that season. The fear was that that figure might drop by more than half for 2024. But when the Twins ended up rejoining Bally’s Sports Network at a lower but still substantial price, payroll never moved an inch.
While the sale of MLB.tv to ESPN could take various structures (and it’s impossible to know what the Twins’ cut would be), Marchand calls the deal “substantial.” That means the Twins should see a sizable increase in what they’re receiving from their broadcasting deals.
However, the Twins’ share of the broader national deals might be smaller. ESPN had a $550-million deal for Sunday Night Baseball, the Home Run Derby, and the playoffs. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that MLB is finalizing the Sunday Night deal for $200 million with Peacock and the Home Run Derby for $35 million with Netflix. It’s not clear what will happen to the stock of the playoff games ESPN carried, but that would require the league to make up almost $300 million in lost money per year. The playoffs are disproportionately valuable, but that’s a lot to hope for.
If the Pohlads want to claim poverty, they certainly can (and almost certainly will). With their debt retired and new minority partners on board, though, they should be in position to substantially increase revenue over the next few years. If the Twins keep payroll the same, there’s little evidence that ownership has learned any lessons over the last few years. If they decide to run a payroll closer to $100 million next season, consider it part of the needlessly miserly style that has been this family’s signature for decades. Which way that breaks might depend on what form this deal takes, so every detail that emerges from here will be important.