Why Seattle Mariners can pass Astros in AL West

The Seattle Mariners are coming off a brutal East Coast road trip that featured stops in four different cities, a trio of rain delays, and a potentially devastating 2-7 mark in the midst of the playoff hunt.

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However, it wasn’t all doom and gloom for Seattle during its road slump. The division rival Houston Astros did the M’s a huge favor, going 3-6 during the same stretch.

It all means that with 34 games left to play, Seattle still has just two games to make up to reach the top of the AL West standings, a place they’ve spent just one day since June 3.

The Mariners have been in this situation before, though. They were within striking distance of the Astros late in each of the past three seasons, yet have zero division titles and only one playoff appearance to show for it.

One MLB insider thinks this year will be different. On Wednesday, The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner told Wyman and Bob why he thinks this is the year the M’s finally unseat the Astros.

“They’ve just got to take down Houston. And I do think that (the Mariners) are the most complete team, and they’re healthy,” Kepner said. “And when you’re healthy and talented, generally that does win out in the end.

“I think Houston deserves a ton of credit for still being in first place here on Aug. 20 with all the injuries they’ve had. I mean, they’ve got a great operation there, but I just don’t think they’re going to hold on. I think Seattle will eventually pass them.”

Too many injuries to overcome

The health factor is a big reason why Kepner feels it’s the Mariners’ year to win the AL West.

Despite some recent woes, Seattle’s starting rotation is at full strength for the first time all year. And the only key member of the lineup missing is outfielder Victor Robles, who should be back with the club some time in September after finishing his rehab assignment and serving a 10-game suspension.

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Meanwhile, Houston has continued to be hammered by injuries. Slugger Yordan Alvarez has been out since early May. Third baseman Isaac Paredes is likely out for the rest of the season. And the Astros have dealt with several injuries to their pitching staff, including a shoulder issue that could keep All-Star closer Josh Hader on the shelf for the rest of regular season.

Alvarez is on a rehab assignment and expected to be back soon, but even the return of one of MLB’s most-feared hitters may not be enough for the Astros, according to Kepner.

“When a guy’s been out so long, you never know (how he will play when he’s back),” Kepner said. “Even though he is coming back, it’s hard to count on him being who he was. He’s missed so much time, and he’s also had setbacks when he thought he was going to be ready and he wasn’t.”

The injuries to Houston’s pitching, which include starters Luis Garcia, J.P. France and Brandon Walter, are also a big concern for Kepner.

“That’s why I think Seattle (is the favorite). They’ve got their five starters now and they should have a good enough bullpen,” Kepner said. “And when you look down and around that lineup, for the first time I don’t see a lot of dry spots in that order like we did for much of the year and certainly for the early part of last year.”

Hear the full conversation at this link or in the audio player in this story. Listen to Wyman and Bob weekdays from 2-6 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.

Why Seattle Mariners can pass Astros in AL West

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